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08/23/2026 17:02
Release： 08/23/2026 17:02
Update： 08/23/2026 17:02
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Four-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-08-24

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: August 23, 2026 09:37 JST / Night session close (Fri night of 8/21)

Current value: 66,010 JPY

Target: Intraday session for the day session (Monday, 8/24)

Conclusion

In conclusion, it fell to 65,270 intraday on 8/21 and then reversed. The night session started at 66,260 and was bought up to 66,460, then pulled back to close at 66,010. The 4H chart shows the wave turning from a downward to an upward phase, with the turning price lowered to 65,170, but the 1H chart remains in a downtrend and has not yet regained 66,180 turning price. The 15-minute chart is range-bound with rising waves, indicating it can swing in either direction.

The focus is whether 66,180 (1H turning price) can be recovered at the 1H close. If recovered, the alignment with the 4H direction will occur, targeting 66,460 (15m retracement high = MA concentration band), 66,750, 66,900. If not recovered and it rebounds around 65,800–65,910, consider buying the dip; if it stalls at 66,180–66,300 or 66,400–66,550, consider selling on the rally. If 65,600 (8/22 night low) is broken by the 15m close, the 15m upward wave would be invalidated, pointing to 65,270 and 65,170. On the upside, 67,000–67,170 and on the downside 65,150–65,000 are thick supply/demand zones; expect to target after a close beyond the outer edges.

4H Analysis

The 4H chart rebounded from 64,880 as the wave shifted from downward to upward. The turning price also moved from 66,420 to 65,170, tightening the low-side defense. With the downside support still at 64,680 intact, the uptrend remains intact. The most recent candle opened at 65,910 and closed near 66,010 with a small positive 0.14% gain.

However, the 20EMA (around 66,500) remains negative in slope, and price sits just below both the 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 66,450) and 66,450–66,550 band. Until a daily close above 66,450–66,550 is achieved, the price remains within the range. On the upside, 66,900 is a target; beyond that, 67,000–67,170 is a thick demand zone where momentum tends to slow, and only after breaking through can 67,400 and 67,670 become visible. On the downside, breaking 65,170 would revert the wave to a downtrend, with 65,000 vicinity thick, followed by 64,880 and 64,680 being watched.

1H Analysis

The 1H remains in a downtrend and a down-wave. From 64,880 a rebound to 66,460 occurred, but the rebound high of 66,900 has not been surpassed. The turning price is 66,180, just 170 above the current price of 66,010. If this level is recovered at the 1H close, the down-wave would shift to up, aligning with the 4H direction.

The 20EMA (around 65,950) is flat, with price just above it; the 80EMA (around 66,500 for the 4H 20EMA) is negative and cap on the upside; the 480EMA (daily 20EMA around 66,880) is flat. The battle around 66,180 is a short-term focal point, and a break would lead to 66,460, 66,750, 66,900; if not, expect a test of the dip to 65,910–65,600.

15m Analysis

The 15m is range-bound with an upward wave. It fell to 65,270 intraday on 8/21 and reversed; the night session started at 66,260 and rose to 66,460, then traded 65,800 → 66,180 → 65,830 before closing at 66,010. The intra-day low 65,990 has been breached on the close, with a retrace high of 66,460. The movement is choppy with no clear directional conviction.

The 20EMA (around 65,990) and 80EMA (around 65,970 for the 1H) are flat and price sits just above them. The 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 66,420) is negative, forming a ceiling near the 15m retrace high of 66,460. If price closes below 65,910 (turning price), the down-wave resumes; a break below 65,600 would invalidate the upward wave.

MTF State

  • 4H: Upward / Upward wave. Turning price 65,170; Support 64,680; Retrace high 67,670 (X). The wave has shifted from down to up and the turning price moved from 66,420 to 65,170. The 20EMA remains negative and price is below it.
  • 1H: Downward / Downward wave. Turning price 66,180; Support 68,510 (X); Retrace high 66,900. The 20EMA is flat, the 80EMA is negative and suppresses upside.
  • 15m: Range / Upward wave. Turning price 65,910; Support 65,990 (X); Retrace high 66,460. The 20EMA and 80EMA are flat, the 320EMA is negative.
  • Consistency: 4H up wave, 1H down wave, and 15m up wave are overlapping. They oscillate within the 65,150–66,900 range, making mean-reversion trades around the center more prone to whipsaw. Prioritize reversals and stalls near the edges.

Important Levels

  • 67,670 JPY: 4H old retrace high. Has been broken and acts as a resistance-turned-support.
  • 67,400 JPY: Retrace high range from 8/18 night. Potential extension if 67,000–67,170 is closed above.
  • 67,000–67,170 JPY: Thick upside supply/demand band, tends to slow movement. Upper bound of T2 for item 1.
  • 66,900 JPY: 1H retrace high. Key junction for the upside in item 1 (T1) and overall direction.
  • 66,750 JPY: Upward price barrier. Guidance for partial profit-taking and protective tightening; potential final of T2 for item 1.
  • 66,550 JPY: Upper band where 4H 20EMA, 1H 80EMA, and 15m 320EMA converge. Upper bound of Zone 2 for item 3.
  • 66,460 JPY: 15m retrace high / 8/21 night high. Break price for item 1.
  • 66,300 JPY: Recent delimiter. Upper bound of Zone 1 for item 3.
  • 66,180 JPY: 1H turning price. Core line for item 2 and leading zone for item 3.
  • 66,010 JPY: Current price / night close price.
  • 65,990 JPY: 15m support low (closed below).
  • 65,910 JPY: 15m turning price. Zone 1 upper bound of item 2 and T1 of item 3.
  • 65,800 JPY: 8/22 night support region. Zone 1 lower bound of item 2.
  • 65,750 JPY: Turning point. Zone 2 upper bound of item 2.
  • 65,600 JPY: 8/22 night low. Break reference for Zone 4 and T2 of item 3.
  • 65,270 JPY: 8/21 intraday low. T1 of item 4.
  • 65,170 JPY: 4H turning price. Almost equal to 65,150 intraday low on 8/19. Core line of item 4.
  • 65,150–65,000 JPY: Thick supply/demand on the lower side, expected to hold downside. Final T2 for item 3 and T2 for item 4.
  • 64,880 JPY: 8/20 night low. Potential extension from closing price of 65,000.
  • 64,680 JPY: 4H support low. Break would trigger a downward turn in the 4H as well.

Trading Ideas

① Breakout Following (Long)

  • Trigger: Close above 66,460 (15m retrace high and 8/21 night high) on the 15m chart. Break below the MA concentration band around 66,400–66,550.
  • Pre-entry price: 66,460. After a breakout, look for a pullback near the breakout price or near the gently sloping 20MA on shorter timeframes (back-entry). If a pullback is not available, skip and wait near 66,750.
  • Actual entry price: 66,910 (recovered at 1H close).
  • Stop loss: 66,170 for the pre-entry, 65,900 for the core position. Full exit at 65,590.
  • Target: 66,900 (partial profit-taking and base price adjustment), 67,150. Do not extend to 67,400 until a close above 67,000–67,170 is confirmed.
  • RR: T1 (66,900) = 1.5 / T2 (67,150) = 2.4.MFE protection: exit at +200 with base price or slight gain, or trail with +300 for at least +100. Upon reaching 66,750, partial profit-taking and protective move forward.

◎ ② Buy the Dip (Long)

  • Standard conditions: Zone 1 is 65,800–65,910 (8/22 night support to 15m turning price; 15m 20EMA and 80EMA also in this band), Zone 2 is 65,600–65,750 (8/22 night low to the next resistance). Confirm rebound shape within Zone on a 15m close.
  • Pre-entry price: 65,870 (if entering from a deeper dip, apply a stop at 65,540).
  • Entry price: 66,190 (1H close recovery).
  • Stop loss: 65,700 for pre-entry, 65,590 for core position. Fully exit at 65,160.
  • Target: 66,180 (partial profit-taking + base price shift), 66,460, 66,750. Above that, due to thicker upside supply, 66,750 is the limit for dip buying.
  • RR: T1 (66,180) = 1.8 / T2 (66,460) = 3.5 / T2 final (66,750) = 5.2.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 with base price or small gain, or +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Do not pre-close inside 65,500–66,500; move forward as you approach 66,750.

③ Sell the Rally (Short)

  • Standard conditions: Zone 1 is 66,180–66,300 (1H turning price to nearest pivot), Zone 2 is 66,400–66,550 (MA concentration band including 15m retrace high 66,460). Confirm stall pattern inside Zone on a 15m close.
  • Pre-entry price: 66,230 (if entering from Zone 2, replace stop with 66,610).
  • Entry price: 65,590 (break below 1H close).
  • Stop loss: 66,390 for pre-entry, 66,190 for core position. Fully exit at 66,910.
  • Target: 65,910 (partial profit-taking + base price adjustment), 65,600, 65,150. Since Zone 2 below 65,150–65,000 has thick downside, avoid chasing beyond 65,150.
  • RR: T1 (65,910) = 2.0 / T2 (65,600) = 3.9 / T2 final (65,150) = 6.8.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 with base price or small gain, or +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. Do not pre-close inside 65,500–66,500; move forward as you approach 65,150.

④ Breakout Following (Short)

  • Trigger: Break below 65,590 (below 65,600 night low on 8/22) on a 15m close. A close below 65,910 is treated as a preceding signal.
  • Pre-entry price: 65,590. After a break, time a pullback near the breakout price or near the sloped 20MA on a shorter timeframe (back-entry).
  • Entry price: 65,160 (break below 1H close = break of 4H turning price 65,170).
  • Stop loss: 65,760 for pre-entry, 65,620 for core position. Fully exit at 66,190.
  • Target: 65,270 (partial profit-taking + base price adjustment), 65,050. Confirm that 65,000 close has been broken to extend to 64,880 and 64,680.
  • RR: T1 (65,270) = 1.9 / T2 (65,050) = 3.2. For extensions, 64,880 = 4.2, 64,680 = 5.4.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 with base price or small gain, or +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. If approaching 65,000, move protection forward; if the break cannot be confirmed, manage at that point.

Current Action

  • Most important Line 1: 66,180 — 1H turning price. If price is 170 above current and recovers at the 1H close, align with 4H. If it cannot recover and stalls earlier, proceed with item ③.
  • Most important Line 2: 65,600 — 8/22 night low. If the 15m close breaks below, the 15m upward wave collapses and shifts to item ④. A rebound near 65,800–65,910 would be item ②.

Entry price, trigger, and stop are set based on the chart shape at the close (turning prices, immediate support, and retrace highs for each timeframe). If the structure changes over time, unless higher-timeframe structure changes, adjust the entry price based on the turning prices of lower timeframes (e.g., 15m) and select the option that more closely matches actual conditions compared to the original values.

※ Note gaps at Monday open after weekend; if open price significantly exceeds the condition price, breakout-following is treated as “partially valid / passes through the gap,” while dip-buying and pullback selling are not considered valid if zones are not reached.

※ This report is for information purposes and is not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.