MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug.24 2026

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 66,016, down 2,697 points from the previous week. The week's high was 69,225 on Monday the 17th, and the week's low was 65,133 on Wednesday the 19th. The closing price was below the weekly support line, so it was bearish. However, this closing price remained above the weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the third straight week. Still, on a weekly chart the close was a bearish candlestick, so the underlying trend remains 'neutral'.

2. Cycles

As previously stated, in 'Forecast 2026' the long-term market cycles for the Nikkei Stock Average have been extended from 17 years to 19 years. However, there is no change to the starting point at October 28, 2008, when the index was 6,994. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottoms — whether it has already bottomed or not — will be the focus in 2026. That said, there is no change to the view that the current market is built on a 4-year cycle, and the future development of long-term cycles will be influenced by recent PC (usually 12–20 weeks) movements. And at present, from a long-term cycle perspective, two very important lows are 31,156 on August 5, 2024, and 30,792 on April 7, 2025. These two lows, flanked by the 37,801 on November 28, 2024, formed PC bottoms of 16 and 19 weeks respectively. The issue is how PC is viewed going forward.

For details, please refer to the PDF file.

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