Financial Instruments Business Operator Kanto Finance Bureau Director (Kinsho) No. 1960 / Membership Association Japan Investment Advisers Association Membership No. 012-02323 Go to GogoJungle Home
icon List
カタナ
08/20/2026 17:29
Release： 08/20/2026 17:29
Update： 08/20/2026 17:29
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
Article cover image

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Four-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-08-21

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: August 21, 2026 06:03 JST / Night Close

Current Value: 65,510 JPY

Subject: For Day Session (Friday, 8/21)

Conclusion

In summary, intraday on 8/20 rebounded to 66,420 but could not sustain, the night session high was 66,380 and it retraced to 64,880, then recovered to 65,995 and closed at 65,510. The 4H chart retains an uptrend while the wave is turning downward with the reversal price lowered to 66,420, and the 1H and 15m show ranges and downwaves. The pattern shows orderly lower highs and lower lows, indicating a continuing down bias.

For now, moves are to be sold on retracements in a trending manner. If the retrace stalls between 65,610–65,790 (15m reversal price to 15m 80 EMA band), consider selling the retracement; if it retraces to 65,970–66,010 and stalls, add to shorts. If price closes above 66,010 (1H reversal price) on the 15m timeframe, switch to buying. If it breaks below 64,880 (15m support / night low), the downtrend continues, and breaking 64,680 (4H support) on a close would flip the 4H to a downtrend.

4H Analysis

The 4H chart still displays an uptrend, but the wave remains downward. After dropping from 69,650 to break 67,670, the recovery faded from 66,900 to 66,420, and the reversal price dropped from 66,900 to 66,420. The latest leg started at 65,580 and closed at 65,510 with a −0.12% move. The 20 EMA (around 66,400) is sloping down, and the 120 EMA (roughly 66,500) is flat-to-down, with price below both. After a substantial rally, price has broken the MA band and failed to recover, indicating ongoing consolidation.

Focus on the support at 64,680. The distance to the 8/20 night low of 64,880 is only 200 points, and a close below there would flip the 4H to a downtrend, ending the upward structure since June. Conversely, a close back above 66,420 would allow the wave to turn upward, with targets at 66,900 and 67,670. On the downside, a break below 64,680 opens 64,520, 64,310, and 63,820 in sequence.

1H Analysis

The 1H is range-bound with a downwave. The rally from 65,150 failed to push above 66,900, and by the night of 8/20 it fell to 64,880. The close is 65,510, up 630 from the low. The reversal price is 66,010, and until the 1H close recovers above this level, the downwave continues.

The 20 EMA (around 65,700) is negative, and the 80 EMA (roughly 66,400 on the 4H, equivalent to 1H 20 EMA) and 480 EMA (roughly 66,500 on the daily, equivalent to 4H 20 EMA) are also negative. Price is below all, and MAs are aligned downward. Therefore, the realistic retrace bands are 65,610–65,790 and 65,970–66,010, where selling in line with the trend would occur. Downside targets begin at 65,210, with 64,880 and 64,680 as progressive levels.

15m Analysis

The 15m shows a range and downwave. After hitting 66,420 intraday on 8/20, price fell to 65,660; the night session then pressed 66,380 as a high and stepped down 65,970 → 65,210 → 64,880. It recovered to 64,880–65,995 but could not sustain, ending at 65,510. The swing low is 64,880 and the high is 65,970, both of which shift lower together, forming a consistent down bias.

The 20 EMA (around 65,560) is negative and price sits just below it; the 80 EMA (around 65,760 for 1H 20 EMA) and 320 EMA (around 66,600 for 4H 20 EMA) are also negative and above price. The current price of 65,510 is 100 below the reversal price of 65,610; a close back above 65,610 would push the short-term wave higher. Conversely, a close below 64,880 would continue the downtrend, with 64,680 at the core target.

MTF Status

  • 4H: Up / Down wave. Reversal 66,420; support 64,680; retrace high 67,670 (X). The reversal price has lowered from 66,900 to 66,420. Both 20 EMA and 120 EMA slope down, and price is below both.
  • 1H: Range / Down wave. Reversal 66,010; support 68,510 (X); retrace high 66,900. All MA slopes downward and price is below all.
  • 15m: Range / Down wave. Reversal 65,610; support 64,880; retrace high 65,970. All of 20 EMA, 80 EMA, and 320 EMA slope downward.
  • Consistency: 1H and 15m align on a down wave, 4H also down; trend is downward. Retracement selling is the normal approach, and buying is contrarian, so require clear evidence of support.

Important Prices

  • 66,900 JPY: 1H retrace high. Point 1 of Tier 2.
  • 66,420 JPY: 4H reversal price; intraday high on 8/20. Tier 1, core line.
  • 66,380 JPY: 8/20 night high.
  • 66,010 JPY: 1H reversal price. Break price for Tier 1 and core line.
  • 65,970 JPY: 15m retrace high. Lower bound of Zone 2.
  • 65,790 JPY: 15m 80 EMA band (1H 20 EMA equivalent). Upper bound of Zone 3.
  • 65,660 JPY: Key test of the 8/20 intraday low. Ahead position of Zone 3.
  • 65,610 JPY: 15m reversal price. Short-term critical split point.
  • 65,510 JPY: Current/Night close price.
  • 65,280–65,210 JPY: Midpoint range of 8/20 night. Zone 2 and Tier 1 of Zone 3.
  • 64,880 JPY: 15m support; 8/20 night low. Tier 3 T2 and Forward signal.
  • 64,680 JPY: 4H support. Break would flip 4H to down. Break reference for Zone 4.
  • 64,520 JPY: 4H pivot point. Tier 4 crossing point.
  • 64,310 JPY: July pivot. Tier 4 Tier 1.
  • 63,820 JPY: Next downside target. Tier 4 Tier 2.

Trading Ideas

① Break Follow (Long)

  • Trigger: Break above 66,010 (1H reversal price) on a 15m close. Also above the 15m retrace high of 65,970.
  • Pre-entry price: 66,010. After break, look for a pullback near the break price or near the inclined 20MA on a short time frame (back-entry).
  • Actual entry price: 66,430 (1H close recovery).
  • Stop loss: 65,790 on the pre-entry and 65,600 on the main entry. Full exit at 65,200.
  • Targets: 66,420 (partial take + cost basis move) and 66,900.
  • RR: T1 66,420 = 1.9; T2 66,900 = 4.0.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or partial profit, or trail at +300 to secure at least +100. Protect early as retracements in a downtrend are common.

② Buy on Dips (Long)

  • Standard conditions: Zone 1 is 65,140–65,280 (includes 65,210, the intraday night low on 8/20), Zone 2 is 64,700–64,880 (just above 4H support and 15m support / night low). Confirm a clear rebound pattern within the zone by the 15m close.
  • Pre-entry price: 65,230 (if entering from deep dip zone, replace stop with 64,660).
  • Actual entry price: 66,010 (1H close recovery).
  • Stop loss: 65,060 on pre-entry and 64,860 on main entry. Full exit 64,660.
  • Targets: 65,610 (partial take + cost basis move), 66,010–66,420.
  • RR: T1 65,610 = 2.2; T2 66,010 = 4.6.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or partial profit, or trail to secure at least +100 with +300; due to contrarian nature, prioritize protection and avoid chasing.

◎ ③ Sell on Rallies (Short)

  • Standard conditions: Zone 1 is 65,610–65,790 (15m reversal price–15m 80 EMA band = 1H 20 EMA equivalent), Zone 2 is 65,970–66,010 (15m retrace high–1H reversal price). Confirm stall pattern within the zone by the 15m close.
  • Pre-entry price: 65,660 (if entering from Zone 2, replace stop with 66,060).
  • Actual entry price: 64,870 (1H close below).
  • Stop loss: 65,840 on pre-entry and 65,620 on main entry. Full exit 66,020.
  • Targets: 65,210 (partial take + cost basis move), 64,880–64,680.
  • RR: T1 65,210 = 2.5; T2 64,880 = 4.3.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or partial profit, or trail to secure at least +100 with +300. Since price rebounded 630 points from the low to close, wait for a favorable open before entering.

④ Break Follow (Short)

  • Trigger: Break below 64,660 (break of 4H support at 64,680) on a 15m close. A close below 64,880 is considered a pre-signal.
  • Pre-entry price: 64,660. After the break, time entries near the break price or near the inclined 20MA on a short timeframe (back-entry).
  • Actual entry price: 64,300 (1H close below).
  • Stop loss: 64,890 on pre-entry and 64,690 on main entry. Full exit 65,620.
  • Targets: 64,310 (partial take + cost basis move), 63,820 / 62,780. 64,520 has a low RR and is treated as a pass-through.
  • RR: T1 64,310 = 1.5; T2 63,820 = 3.7.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or partial profit, or trail to secure at least +100 with +300. After a major trend reversal, false moves and rapid rebounds are common, so protect early.

Current Action

  • Most important Line 1: 65,610 — 15m reversal price. 100 points above the current price; if retracement stalls here, consider Zone 3; if the 15m close recovers, consider closing short.
  • Most important Line 2: 64,680 — 4H support. Night low of 64,880 is only 200 points away, and a close below here would flip 4H to down and switch to Zone 4. If price rebounds in front of 65,140–65,280 or 64,700–64,880, it could align with Zone 2.

Entry price, trigger, and stop levels are set based on the chart shape at the close (reversal prices, supports, and retrace highs of each timeframe). If the structure changes over time without an upper-timeframe structural change, adjust entry prices using the lower-timeframe wave reversal prices (e.g., if a short-term timeframe temporarily enters an up wave and then reverses to a down wave) to better reflect the actual conditions, selecting the option that aligns more closely with the real situation.

※ The closes are not at the low but have recovered 630 points from 64,880. Do not chase from the open; base your entries on waiting for a retrace. Do not break below 64,880 outright; confirm a close below 64,680 for Zone 4 to trigger.

※ This report is for information purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Investment decisions are the responsibility of the reader.