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08/19/2026 17:12
Release： 08/19/2026 17:12
Update： 08/19/2026 17:12
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Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory 4-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-08-20

Date and time: August 20, 2026 06:02 JST / Night session close

Current price: 66,130 yen

対象：日中セッション向け（8/20 木曜）

Conclusion

After pushing to 65,150 during the day on 8/19, a reversal occurred; the night session extended from 66,410 to 65,980 to 66,900, then pulled back to 65,735, ending at 66,130. The 4-hour chart remains in an uptrend while the wave has turned downward; the 1-hour and 15-minute charts have shifted to ranges and uptrends, entering a phase of testing for a rebound after the initial sharp decline.

For the time being, treat as a range between 65,735 and 66,900. If there is a rebound from 65,845–65,980, consider a dip-buy; a break above 66,900 (15m pullback high / 4H conversion price) on a 15m close would suggest a breakout-following buy toward 67,400. The first resistance is 66,250–66,410; if price stalls there, consider selling into the rally. If 65,735 (close to the 1H conversion price of 65,740) is broken on a 15m close, the 1H and 15m uptrends would be considered finished and a downward move toward 65,150 would resume.

4H Analysis

The 4H chart preserves an uptrend, but the waves are downward. The rebound high around 67,670, which had briefly surpassed after a drop from 69,650, was retraced and price stalled around 65,150. The latest bar started at 65,980 and closed at 66,130 with a +0.24% gain, showing easing downside momentum. The 20EMA around 66,900 is sloping downward and coincides with the conversion price of 66,900. Price sits just below the 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 66,400).

The downside prompt 64,680 remains, so the broader downtrend is not confirmed. It’s a pullback within an uptrend. A recovery above 66,900 would renew the up move toward 67,070, 67,400, and 67,670. If the downside breaks 65,150, the pullback deepens with targets at 64,940 and 64,680.

1H Analysis

The 1H has shifted to range and rising wave. The decline after breaking 68,510 (low support) stopped at 65,150, then rebounded to 66,900 by night session close. The conversion price is 65,740, nearly equal to the night session low of 65,735 on 8/20. If this is broken on a 1H close, the upward move ends and a new decline begins.

The 20EMA around 66,000 has turned positive with price above it. However, the 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 66,850) remains negative, forming a band that caps upside. The 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 65,500) remains below price, so treat price as in a 65,740–66,900 range and wait for one side’s close to be breached.

15m Analysis

The 15m view remains range-bound with an upmove. Night price retraced to 65,980, then extended to 66,900, and was pulled back to 65,735 before closing at 66,130. The swing low of 65,980 is currently broken on a close, with the rebound high at 66,900. Wide fluctuations continue.

The 20EMA around 66,000 has turned positive and sits above price; the 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent around 66,250) is flat, forming a band where breaking 66,250–66,410 would be notable. The 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 67,200) is negatively sloped and acts as a major upside cap. If 65,845 (conversion price) is closed below, the down move resumes; a break below 65,735 ends the 1H upmove.

MTF Status

  • 4H: Upward/downward waves. Conversion 66,900; pullback support 64,680; rebound high 67,670 (X). Latest leg started at 65,980 and closed at 66,130 for +0.24%. 20EMA is negative and coincides with the conversion price.
  • 1H: Range / Up move. Conversion 65,740; pullback support 68,510 (X) / rebound high 69,560. 20EMA turned positive; 80EMA remains negative, capping upside.
  • 15m: Range / Up move. Conversion 65,845; pullback support 65,980 (X) / rebound high 66,900. 20EMA positive; 80EMA flat; 320EMA negative and above, acting as a resistance. If 65,845 is broken on close, the up move returns to a downtrend below 65,735 ending the 1H upmove.
  • Consistency: 4H uptrend with 1H and 15m in upwaves; the higher timeframes take priority for the dip-buying approach. However, because 4H waves remain in a down phase and have not regained the 66,900 conversion price, selling on rallies should accompany any long setup.

Important Prices

  • 67,670 yen: 4H old rebound high. Breaks confirmed and becomes resistance-turned
  • 67,400 yen: Night rebound high around 8/18. Point 1 of T1
  • 67,070 yen: Night low on 8/18. Conversion resistance. Complete retreat for point 3
  • 66,900 yen: 15m rebound high / 4H conversion price / 4H 20EMA band. The most critical downstream breakout
  • 66,410 yen: Night of 8/19 mid-point. Core line for point 2
  • 66,360 yen: Recent milestone. Inside Zone 1 of point 3
  • 66,250 yen: 8/19 intraday high; 15m 80EMA band. Lower bound of Zone 1 in point 3
  • 66,130 yen: current price / night close
  • 65,980 yen: 15m pullback low (closed below). Upper bound of Zone 1 in point 2
  • 65,845 yen: 15m conversion price. T1 of point 3
  • 65,740 yen: 1H conversion price. Break means the 1H upmove ends
  • 65,735 yen: Night low on 8/20. Break reference for point 4
  • 65,510 yen: Support-turned zone. T2 of point 3
  • 65,340 yen: Daytime intraday rebound low on 8/19. T1 of point 4
  • 65,150 yen: Daytime intraday low on 8/19. Lifeline for downside
  • 64,940 yen: 8/7 low zone
  • 64,680 yen: 4H pullback low. If broken, 4H also turns downward

Trade Ideas

① Breakout-following (Long)

  • Trigger: Break above 66,900 (15m rebound high, 4H conversion price, 4H 20EMA band) on a 15m close.
  • Pre-entry price: 66,900. After breakout, wait for a pullback near breakout price or around the sloped 20MA on a lower timeframe (back-entry).
  • Actual entry price: 66,910 (recovery of the 1H close).
  • Stop-loss: 66,590 on the pre-entry portion, 66,240 on the main position. Full exit at 65,840.
  • Targets: 67,400 (partial take + move stop to breakeven), 67,670. 67,070 is considered a waypoint due to low risk-reward.
  • RR: T1 (67,400) = 1.6 / T2 (67,670) = 2.5.
  • MFE protection: exit break-even or small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300 or use trailing. Given the high-risk rebound after a sharp drop, protect early.

◎ ② Buy the dip (Long)

  • Standard: Zone 1 is 65,845–65,980 (15m conversion price to the 15m close below; support-turned) and Zone 2 is 65,510–65,740 (support-turned band to 1H conversion price / night low). Look for a rebound pattern within the zone on a 15m close.
  • Pre-entry price: 65,900 (if entering from a deep dip, place the stop at 65,440).
  • Actual entry price: 66,410 (1H close recovery).
  • Stop-loss: 65,700 for the pre-entry, 65,500 for the main position. Full exit at 65,140.
  • Targets: 66,410 (partial take + move to break-even), 66,900–67,400.
  • RR: T1 (66,410) = 2.6 / T2 (66,900) = 5.0.
  • MFE protection: exit break-even or small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300 or trailing. Since this is a dip-buy within a range, take partial profits near the upper bound.

③ Sell the rally (Short)

  • Standard: Zone 1 is 66,250–66,410 (8/19 intraday high/15m 80EMA band–midpoint), Zone 2 is 66,850–66,900 (15m rebound high / 4H conversion price = range top). Look for stall pattern within the zone on a 15m close.
  • Pre-entry price: 66,300 (if entering from Zone 2, place stop at 66,960).
  • Actual entry price: 65,730 (1H close below).
  • Stop-loss: 66,470 for the pre-entry, 66,140 for the main position. Full exit at 67,080.
  • Targets: 65,845 (partial take + move to break-even), 65,510–65,150.
  • RR: T1 (65,845) = 2.7 / T2 (65,510) = 4.6.
  • MFE protection: exit break-even or small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300 or trailing. Since this is a return-sell within an uptrend on the 4H, avoid chasing too deeply.

④ Breakout-following (Short)

  • Trigger: Break below 65,730 (night low 65,735 / 1H conversion price 65,740) on a 15m close. A close below 65,845 is treated as an early signal.
  • Pre-entry price: 65,730. After breakdown, timing a pullback near breakout price or near the sloped 20MA on a shorter timeframe (back-entry).
  • Actual entry price: 65,140 (1H close below).
  • Stop-loss: 65,900 for pre-entry, 65,520 for main. Full exit at 66,410.
  • Targets: 65,340 (partial take + move to break-even), 65,150 / 64,680.
  • RR: T1 (65,340) = 2.3 / T2 (65,150) = 3.4.
  • MFE protection: exit break-even or small profit at +200; secure at least +100 with +300 or trailing. Since retracements after a rebound can be prone to whipsaws, protect early.

Current action

  • Most important line 1: 66,900 — 15m rebound high / 4H conversion price. If cleared on a 15m close, target 67,400 toward the breakout path and the 4H wave should resume upward. If not reached and price stalls around 66,250–66,410, consider line ③.
  • Most important line 2: 65,735 — night low. Approximately equal to 1H conversion price 65,740; if broken on a 15m close, switch toward ④. The rebound from 65,845–65,980 beforehand corresponds to line ②.

Entry price, trigger, and stop levels are based on the chart shape at the close time (conversion prices, pullback supports, rebound highs of each timeframe). If the structure changes over time, unless the higher-timeframe structure changes, adjust entry prices using the lower-timeframe wave conversion prices (e.g., when a shorter timeframe first enters a downward wave and then transitions to an upmove) and adopt the option that best matches actual conditions compared to the initial value.

※ The post-sharp-drop rebound tends to have wide price ranges. Small fluctuations within 65,735–66,900 should be treated as noise, and the direction should not be assumed until a close breaks one side.

※ This report is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.