[FX Market Analysis] 2026/08/19 (+14,233 pips) EUR/USD fluctuation analysis

This is the Euro-Dollar four-hour chart.

The four-hour Elliott wave is currently the third wave of the uptrend Elliott wave.

The four-hour cycle isthe red lineas the starting point, and we are currently looking at 25 scenarios.

The daily Elliott wave is currently the third wave of the uptrend Elliott wave, and because the daily fifth wave of the pound-dollar daily chart has not exceeded the high of the first wave, the daily third wave is extending, and we are viewing the daily third wave as continuing.

Therefore, we are also counting this four-hour Elliott wave as part of an uptrend Elliott wave.

If the four-hour Elliott wave forms an uptrend Elliott wave, the four-hour cycle has a high likelihood of forming a light translation.

Therefore, from herethe green lineis expected to rise above its high and then complete a four-hour cycle peak.

The major cycle is currently 17 legs, and I think the high of the fifth wave of the four-hour uptrend Elliott wave will be the major cycle top, so this major cycle is highly likely to form a light translation.

Therefore, at the present time I am viewing the market with a bullish bias under the above scenario.

However, since the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are declining somewhat sharply, I am also wary of a downside scenario.

Originally, before switching to a bullish bias, I was viewing a scenario where cross yen and dollar indices would drop together in a long-term downtrend.

So depending on circumstances, there is a possibility of reverting to a bearish scenario again.

In the scenario of a decline in the dollar index, the monthly Elliott wave is currently the first wave of a downtrend, and it has formed a three-year cycle top at the 13th count, so the three-year cycle will form a left translation.

Therefore, it will fall below the starting point of the three-year cycle (1.0176).

At present I am looking at it under a bullish-bias scenario, so I am viewing the nearest monthly low (1.1323) as a four-year cycle bottom scenario.

The dollar index still requires a little more patience, but for now I am viewing the market with a bullish bias and will consider switching to a bearish bias depending on the situation.

As a trading strategy, I am aiming for long entries, but the scenario is difficult to confirm,the red linehas already risen, so this time a wait-and-see approach may be appropriate.

If you have already entered a long position, place your stop loss below thered line.

Current position.

The Nikkei 225 index (72373.37) has already locked in 50% of the position profit, so even if the stop is triggered later, it will not be financially negative.

Current unrealized profit is+10,233 pips?

Dollar index scenarios are still difficult to judge, so I will continue to monitor and then decide on the scenario.

Both bullish and bearish scenarios have some validity, so it is difficult to determine.

For now I will proceed with a bullish bias, but please remain adaptable so you can respond quickly at any time.

As of 2026, the total profit earned is+3,775 pips❣️