Virtual currency market analysis [August 18]

There will be a digital-focused gathering at the White House soon, with industry CEOs in attendance. Among them is Ripple, the only company that issues the currency XRP. Speaking of Ripple, before Mr. Trump became President he was more aligned with the Democratic Party, but after his election he has leaned Republican and begun to show prominence.

In Bitcoin-related news, predictions about the “bottom” of prices have been increasing. This week, information about companies purchasing Bitcoin ETFs has emerged. The market is in a stage of a large decline and stagnation, but it appears to be gradually turning, and as investors we feel it is still appropriate to stay firmly grounded and observe the foundation.

The SpaceX SPCX that I have been introducing for some time has seen price spikes after lockups, with some voices regretting not buying around the $100 range during the IPO crash.

(The current price is $141) SpaceX is a Bitcoin-holding company.

※ Here is the main topic

As of Tuesday, August 18, 2026, we will detail the latest price movements and background factors for major cryptocurrencies (top market cap), including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), recent trends since last week, and capital flows into US spot ETFs (inflows and outflows).ETF information is included as well.

The data used in this report are based on public information from CoinDesk, crypto.news, Moneycontrol, Farside Investors, SoSoValue, and other major market reports and data analytics platforms.

■ Today’s price movements and overall market sentiment (as of August 18, 2026) August 18,

As of August 18, 2026, 18, 2026 the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was around $2.28 trillion, and compared with the previous day, signs of a slight rebound were observed. However, while Bitcoin, the symbol of the market, showed strength relative to other major altcoins, most other major altcoins moved flat to slightly softer, resulting in a mixed overall movement.

· Bitcoin (BTC)

Price is hovering around$64,200 to$64,300 $64,000

Bitcoin daily chart

· Ethereum (ETH)

Price is around$1,900

· Solana (SOL)

Price is around $76

·XRP (XRP)

Price is around $0.99$1.00

·BNB (Binance Coin)

Price is around$600$604

· Other major coins and altcoins

DogeCoin (DOGE) around$0.07TRX) around$0.33

In this way, Bitcoin has been outperforming other assets, and the current crypto market is clearly characterized by "Bitcoin-led mild price recovery with altcoins in a wait-and-see mood."

■ Main background factors and news that moved today's price

· Macro environment supports the downside

Ahead of the publication of the FOMC minutes for the July meeting on Wednesday, market expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have cooled. This has led to a weaker dollar and lower short-term Treasury yields, improving liquidity across financial markets, and is believed to have contributed to inflows into Bitcoin.

· Geopolitical risk and commodity market impact

Crude oil rose above $91 per barrel. This reflects concerns over U.S. President Trump’s stance on Iran’s nuclear deal extensions and regional tensions in the Middle East. The rise in oil prices fueled inflation fears, stressing traditional assets like bonds and equities, and temporarily weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

· Crypto-specific topics and trends

Some miners are shifting about 21% of their hash power to AI data center operations, and AI-related tokens like Venice have gained attention. There were reports of renewed ETF demand from institutions, but the overall market did not rise dramatically and the impact remained limited.

· Technical analysis perspective

Bitcoin is trading in a range roughly from $62,000 to $65,000, with prices below key moving averages. Analysts note that upside is being weighed down and selling pressure persists when prices attempt to rebound.

■ Price movement trends since last week (mid- to long-term view)

From around August 11 to August 17, 2026, the crypto market moved in a range with no decisive breakouts in either direction, as macro uncertainties such as U.S. rate hikes and Middle East tensions persisted.

· Bitcoin (BTC) movement

Early in the week, Bitcoin briefly dipped around $64,800 before rebounding. On a weekly basis, it was up about +0.5%. It traded in a broad range of $60,000 to $66,000, with bears slightly more dominant on a midterm view, though support at the lower end helped stabilize prices. Some analysts note the weekly chart is now back below the 200-week moving average, a pattern reminiscent of the 2022 downturn.

· Ethereum (ETH) movement

ETH showed relatively stable movement. On a weekly basis, it rose around +1% to +1.5%, hovering near $1,900 with a relatively solid bottom compared to Bitcoin.

· Solana (SOL), XRP, BNB movement

Solana was nearly flat week-over-week, XRP down, and BNB slightly weaker. Overall, altcoins showed a wide dispersion; a few standouts like HYPE delivered outperformance.

■

ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) flows – a summary of the past approximately 1 week

For institutional investors, inflows/outflows into U.S. crypto spot ETFs are a crucial indicator. Data from SoSoValue and Farside Investors show weekly data around August 10–14 and August 17, 2026.

· Bitcoin spot ETF movement

Net outflow of about $380 million (approximately $3.897 billion). This is the largest weekly outflow in about six weeks. A large inflow was observed last week (~$85 million), suggesting a sharp reversal due to risk-off positioning by institutions amid global financial uncertainty.

· Ethereum spot ETF movement

Net outflow of about $22.6 million. This is modest in scale, but it breaks the prior five-week streak of inflows. Cumulative inflows for Ethereum spot ETFs are around $11.45 billion, with assets under management around $10.52 billion.

These ETF flow data indicate temporarily weakened demand from institutions. Nevertheless, despite such a large outflow, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot prices did not collapse, implying underlying price floor resilience. There are some reports of a recovery in inflows recently, but weekly data still show net outflows.

■ U.S. long-term rates rising and effects

U.S. long-term rates (notably the 10-year Treasury yield) rose to around 4.74% to 4.75% by mid-August 2026, a near 19-month high. The 30-year yield also surged into the 5.3% range, reaching levels not seen since 2007.

This rise is driven by persistent inflation fears, excessive U.S. debt issuance, AI-related corporate debt, and spillover effects from rising global rates, among other factors.

Higher long-term rates increase the cost of funding for investors and raise the yield appeal of safe assets like government bonds, thereby exerting downward pressure on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). In a high-volatility crypto market, high rates further dampen investment inflows.

■ Harvard University’s large investment in major space companies

Harvard University’s endowment formally announced a $2.2 billion investment in SpaceX, led by Elon Musk.

■ Innovation Summit at the White House next week, with President Trump attending

Next week, the White House will host an Innovation Summit, with President Trump himself in attendance.

Participants include a16z, Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and other major crypto industry leaders, who will gather their CEOs in one place.

Participants will also serve on the CFTC advisory committee to discuss future regulatory frameworks and growth strategies for crypto and AI. Notably, among the participating representative companies, only Ripple has issued its own cryptocurrency (XRP), highlighting the rapid convergence of politics and the crypto industry.

■ Latest individual news about Bitcoin

· MicroStrategy CEO signals resumption of buying Bitcoin

As a known Bitcoin-holding company, MicroStrategy’s CEO stated that Bitcoin purchases will resume within the year. This year's BTC purchases amount to about 25 times the amount sold (roughly 176,000 BTC bought vs. about 7,000 BTC sold). The company explained that some recent sales were strategic moves to fund preferred stock dividends or buybacks. This follows founder Michael Saylor’s assertion that “even if we sell BTC, the market won’t collapse,” underscoring a strong bullish stance toward Bitcoin.

· Bitfinex market analysis and warnings

Bitfinex analysts warned that Bitcoin is currently showing typical characteristics of the mid- to late-stage bear market (not yet at the bottom, but nearing it). Spot trading volumes have fallen to levels seen in early 2019, and on-chain velocity has dropped to multi-year lows, highlighting significant liquidity scarcity. Key to reviving a renewed uptrend is continued ETF inflows and rising stablecoin supply.

· VanEck cycle analysis

VanEck, a prominent U.S. asset manager, published an official blog on August 13, 2026, outlining investment ideas for the latter half of 2026. Patrick Schramm suggested Bitcoin is approaching a cycle bottom. VanEck positions Bitcoin’s price decline as a predictable bear cycle tied to the halving every ~4 years. In this cycle, Bitcoin fell from a peak near $125,000 to the low $60,000s, but VanEck emphasizes that such significant adjustments are not a fundamental breakdown of crypto assets but a natural cycle.

■ CZ (Binance founder) on Bitcoin scarcity

CZ noted the structural scarcity of Bitcoin: as of August 2026, out of the 21 million max supply, more than 20.07 million have been mined, leaving only about 4.4% unmined. He warned that a time may come when even the wealthiest individuals cannot purchase even a single Bitcoin (1 BTC), due to the fixed supply.

· Hedge fund Tudor Investment Corporation led by Paul Tudor Jones

Tudor Investment has increased its holding of the spot Bitcoin ETF managed by BlackRock (IBIT) by 18.9%. As of June 30, 2026, the fund reported owning 688,529 shares, valued at about $22.9 million at market price. This marks a reversal from a 2024 peak when the fund had reduced its holdings by 91% and signals a renewed interest in Bitcoin.

（Note: Tudor Investment is a long-established U.S. hedge fund founded in 1980, known for macroeconomic forecasting and risk management.)

· Jane Street reveals large Bitcoin ETF holdings

Jane Street disclosed holding over $1 billion in Bitcoin ETFs in a regulatory filing. The bulk is in BlackRock’s IBIT, with around $820 million, while the remaining funds are allocated to Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC, among others. Jane Street is a major quantitative trading firm that provides liquidity across more than 200 markets globally.

· Harvard University endowment changes holdings and Abu Dhabi sovereign fund activity

Harvard’s endowment paused the sale of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). They reduced holdings by 21% in Q4 2024 and 43% in Q1 2025, but recently shifted to hold about $110 million (about $111.4 million) in Bitcoin ETF exposure. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi government-related funds continue to hold a large Bitcoin ETF position valued at around $480.1 million.

■ Ethereum latest individual news

· 2027 big upgrade “Hegotá” (Hegota) planned for implementation

In Ethereum’s next-generation roadmap, the major upgrade “Hegotá” aims for implementation in 2027. Key points include:

· Strengthening censorship resistance to prevent validator centralization (introducing FOCIL feature)

· Supporting privacy-preserving but regulator-compliant “privacy pools”

· Reducing block time from 12 seconds to 10 seconds to improve processing speed

· Expanding the gas cap (block processing capacity) from 5e8 to 6e8

· A major upgrade expected to dramatically boost the processing capacity and security of the Ethereum ecosystemas a result of this upgrade.

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