As of August 18, gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD) regarding fundamentals and technical analysis for each timeframe

Hello everyone. This is "Ronti FX".
Today as well, as of August 18, we will整理 and deliver fundamental analysis and technical analysis on the Gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD) across timeframes. We hope this will serve as a reference for daily market environment recognition and chart checks.

1. Overall Fundamental Environment

? Expectations of US rate cuts and decline in real interest rates (a common tailwind)

With a softening U.S. inflation indicators, expectations for additional rate cuts by the Fed continue. The decline in real interest rates and the expectation of expanded global liquidity support both safe-haven assets like gold and risk asset Bitcoin, providing a strong floor for both.

⚠️ Caution about highs and take-profit selling at key levels

On the other hand, both assets are near important resistance lines and highs, making short-term profit-taking selling and pullback pressure around key levels a complex scenario.

2. GOLD (XAU/USD) Analysis

Current price: about 4,412 - 4,415 dollars

• ■ Daily chart (D1) — defense under the long-term trend line
  Environment:Prices have risen back toward the vicinity of the long-term downward trend line (red diagonal) and are hovering in a position to break higher.
  Today's focal point:Whether the trend line in the 4,440 - 4,450 region can be clearly broken on a daily close, or whether upward pressure will be contained again, is the main turning point.
  General trader perspective:As resistance is just ahead, cautious views increase, while some anticipate chasing buys after a clear breakout, and others anticipate selling on a pullback with the line as support.
• ■ 4-hour chart (H4) — Highs cautions and upper resistance band
  Environment:Following a recent strong upward wave, prices have reached the overlap of prior higher-timeframe resistance lines (red horizontal line near 4,443) and the long-term trend line area.
  Today’s focal point:Whether price can sustain above 4,440 and show signs of continuing higher without stalling, after a potential retest.
  General trader perspective:While profit-taking on reaching key levels is watched, there is also a possibility of a pullback toward the major support around 4,310 - 4,320.
• ■ 1-hour chart (H1) — Continuation of uptrend and level-by-level defense
  Environment:The uptrend with higher highs and higher lows remains intact, and price is nibbling near the recent high around 4,440.
  Today's focal point:Whether the pullback can hold above the near-term low around 4,390 - 4,400 and push to new highs.
  General trader perspective:Upside momentum remains strong, but there is a significant daily resistance just above, so cautious posture waiting for a pullback is common.
• ■ 30-minute & 15-minute charts (M30 / M15) — Short-term range near highs
  Environment:After a brief test near 4,440, price forms a high-range consolidation with lower bound near 4,400.
  Today's focal point:Whether the upper boundary (4,435 - 4,440) can be re-tested and broken, or whether price breaks the lower boundary (4,395 - 4,400) leading to a corrective wave.
  General trader perspective:A coexistence of short-term long positions near 4,400 and shorting opportunities near the 4,440 line is common.

3. BTC (BTC/USD) Analysis

Current price: about 64,270 - 64,320 dollars

• ■ Daily chart (D1) — Attempts to break the downtrend line
  Environment:While staying below the long-term downtrend line (red slanted trend line), price is gradually rising from the bottom and approaching the trend line.
  Today's focal point:Whether the red slanted line (around 64,500 - 65,000) can be decisively broken on a daily close to confirm a breakout.
  General trader perspective:If breakout occurs, a medium-to-long-term uptrend reversal strengthens, attracting buyers after a confirmed breakout.
• ■ 4-hour chart (H4) — Lower bound rising within a major range
  Environment:From around the lower bound near 62,300 (red horizontal line), price has reversed and is moving toward the upper bound near 66,600 (red horizontal line).
  Today's focal point:Whether current up-momentum can be sustained and if price tests the resistance zone around 65,000 - 65,700.
  General trader perspective:Strong support near 62,300 has been confirmed, so the environment favors buying on pullbacks toward the range upper bound.
• ■ 1-hour chart (H1) — Formation of a short-term up wave and resistance reached
  Environment:After a bounce near 62,700, price has formed a short-term uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, reaching around 64,600 (yellow horizontal line) resistance.
  Today's focal point:Whether a pullback can hold at the near-term low around 63,900 - 64,000 and support another leg higher.
  General trader perspective:Momentum is strong; expect a shallow pullback toward 64,000 and look for a continuation higher.
• ■ 30-minute & 15-minute charts (M30 / M15) — Range-bound near highs
  Environment:After touching the 64,590 area, price has paused and is trading in a high range around the upper 64,000s.
  Today's focal point:Whether price can sustain the short-term support around 63,900 - 64,000 and attempt another break above 64,600, or break down and expand the range.
  General trader perspective:Confronted by short-term profit-taking but with buying power remaining, traders may wait for a decisive level at around 64,000 and manage risk carefully.

4. Today’s Summary (August 18)

Today (Aug 18), both GOLD and BTC are in bullish positions testing breaks above long-term resistance lines (trendlines).

? Key for GOLD (XAU/USD)

The main focal point is whether price can clearly break the resistance band around 4,440 - 4,450 on a daily close. If a breakout occurs, the next leg toward record highs is expected; if rejected, be wary of a pullback toward short-term supports around 4,390 - 4,400 and the 4,310 - 4,320 area on the 4-hour chart.

₿ BTC (BTC/USD) Key

After base-building around 62,300, price is sustaining the up move and approaching a break of the daily downtrend line around 64,500 - 65,000. If a shallow pullback near 64,000 can form and price breaks above, the scenario targeting the range high of 65,700 - 66,600 becomes favorable.

⚖️ Trading Plan for Today

Since both assets are near strong resistance, avoid chasing tops. Consider entering only after confirming pullbacks on lower timeframes (15m, 30m) and observing price action around support bands before entering.

【Disclaimer】
This article aims to provide objective chart and market data analysis and information, and does not prescribe or advise specific buying or selling actions.