Binary sign tools do not select based on win rate alone — reasons include checking time of day, day of week, and sample size
When you look at binary options sign tools, aren’t you just judging by the number that says “win rate ○%”? Isn’t that what you do to judge?
Even with the same logic, the results can vary depending on the currency pair, time frame, day of the week, time of day, and market environment.
This time, we will整理 (organize) the points to check when validating binary signals.
First check for repainting
Even if past charts show signals lined up at very neat positions, it does not guarantee they will display in the same way in real time.
When using a forming candlestick to determine conditions, a sign that has appeared once may disappear later or change position.
Not only the win rate but also “how many results”
What is very important when looking at win rate issample size.
For example, 4 wins out of 5 is a win rate of 80%. However, compared to 80 wins out of 100, the data volume is still small and more easily affected by chance.
It is necessary to verify not only the high win rate but also how many signals it was calculated from simultaneously.
Separate HIGH and LOW to verify
Even if the overall results look similar, sometimes the HIGH direction yields relatively good results while the LOW direction performs poorly.
By separating results by direction, it becomes easier to see in what market conditions that logic has been functioning.
Results may vary by time of day
The forex market does not move in the same way 24 hours a day.
Because participants and price movements differ by Tokyo time, European time, US time, etc., sign performance may differ.
Therefore,it makes sense to look at time-of-day results in addition to “overall time period win rate”.
Also check results by day of the week
From Monday to Friday, market conditions are not exactly the same every day.
By checking past results by day of the week, you can see if outcomes are biased toward a particular day.
Do not confuse spiky single trades with Martingale
When evaluating binary results, you shouldseparate “single-trade win rate” from “results including Martingale”.
Single-trade results reflect the outcome of the candle on which the sign appeared.
On the other hand, one Martingale is the cumulative result where the next trade in the same direction is judged if the previous one lost.
ARXELION that shows all of these on one screen
What was developed to view both the signals themselves and past statistics on the same chart is the MT4 binary analysis indicator“ARXELION”.
ARXELION uses onlyconfirmed candlesto determine conditions, and fixes HIGH/LOW signals at the moment a new candle begins.
It is designed not to move, delete, or reverse past signals at convenient times.
Key statistics you can check with ARXELION
- 24 hours, 7 days, 30 days, all-time
- Single, 1-Martingale, 2-Martingale
- HIGH/LOW by direction
- By Japan time time-of-day
- By day of the week
- By time frame
- By logic
- Recent results
- Winning streaks and losing streaks
Sample sizes under 20 are shown in grayto avoid overemphasizing high win rates from small data.
Sign confirmation on the new candle
When conditions are met, the HIGH or LOW sign is displayed at the first price tick of the new candle.
After the sign candle ends, the result is shown on the chart as win with ○ or loss with × and reflected in the statistics.
Three levels of sign settings
You can choose the strictness of sign conditions from three levels according to your purpose.
- Standard:Ensure a certain number of signs
- High precision:Prioritize balance of accuracy and frequency
- Ultra strict:Prioritize situations with strong conditions
Initial setting is“High precision”.
Push notifications to smartphones also supported
By setting your MetaQuotes ID on MT4, you can push signs to your smartphone.
This is useful when you want to be notified of sign occurrences without constantly watching the chart.
ARXELION product details
Details on the actual chart screen, the Japanese statistics dashboard, each statistic item, and how to implement are described in detail on the product page.
Summary
When validating binary sign tools,don’t just look at whether the win rate is high; also check the number of signs, direction, time of day, day of the week, and differences between single-trade and Martingale.
Also, beyond the appearance of past charts, be sure to check when in real time the sign is confirmed.
ARXELIONis an MT4 indicator designed to fix the new-candle sign from the completed candle and view results and multiple statistics on one chart.
This displayed performance is a reference value calculated from historical price data stored in MT4. It does not guarantee future win rate or profit. Binary trading and Martingale involve risk of loss.
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