[After the spike, do not increase forecasts in the following week] to see if the assumption is still alive

Aren't you charging into a stagnant market out of frustration? How can you avoid chasing after it has moved up?

On days with big moves, many people have not decided what to do next.

And then the following week, the number of trades tends to increase the most at this very moment.

Good evening!

This is Masashi^^

Why does the week after GOLD moves feel so exhausting?

It's not because the price movement is wild.

It's because the number of predictions in my head has increased.

The moment you miss out and feel the regret, the order of what you look at can get swapped.

It's not about skill with the arms.

Whether it will continue to rise or reverse,

the moment you start thinking, your feelings take over before your confirmations.

Even in the past, my number of trades would increase most the week after a sharp rise… w

What you look at after a sharp rise is not the next direction, but whether your own assumptions are still alive.

✅ After a sharp rise, voices split in two

After a strong move, you hear two voices.

・Some people still look up

・Some say it’s over

Both voices sound loud.

In the meantime, your confirmations get buried (;'∀')

What helps here is not enduring with willpower.

Decide in advance what you will look at before other people’s opinions come in.

If you have decided, you can ignore strong opinions.

If you haven’t, judgments get overwritten in the order you hear them.

The tricky part is you don’t realize you’ve overwritten them.

You think you decided yourself, but you’re influenced by others’ viewpoints.

Therefore, I write down my own range before looking at external voices.

? Today’s task: before opening the chart, write in one line 【Today I will only look at the upper-timeframe resistance in front of me】.

? I used to reduce my account the most the week after a sharp rise

I’ll be honest.

This is where I personally stayed the longest trap.

The week with big gains is surprisingly calm to watch.

The problem was the following week.

Because the feeling of not being able to ride it remains, hands reach before the conditions align.

In a certain year after a sharp rise, I was astonished by the number of trades I made.

It was nearly three times a normal week.

Moreover, most of them were just one-off trades that cannot be explained.

What I did afterward was not add more material.

I reduced the places I looked at and fixed the order of viewing.

After the number of trades settled, I finally could look at each one’s content.

Reduce. Then enrich what remains. The order is always like this.

? On the week after a sharp rise, reduce the places you look at to three. You can increase later when things settle.

? The more you expect, the harder it is to see the conditions

When you try to guess the next move, even small reactions start to seem meaningful.

It’s strange, but if you look, you will always find some basis.

So the time you hesitate only gets longer.

First thing you need is not the reason to enter.

Decide in advance where your assumption will fail.

Be concrete. Suppose there is a moment after a sharp rise when you can give five reasons to enter.

If there are five, it seems likely the probability is high.

But if four of them are reasons that appeared after the move happened,

the only thing you could have said before the move was one reason.

The rest were arranged after observing price movement.

The increase was not in confirmations, but in the desire to enter.

? Today’s task: Before entering, try to write 【If the price breaks the wall and doesn’t come back, it’s over】.

? The time idle is time for digestion

The time after momentum to stop moving feels harsher for those who missed out.

It feels like only you are being left behind while you do nothing (;'∀')

But not forcing yourself here protects the quality of your next decision.

The time when it doesn’t move is not a loss you can reduce.

It’s an extra one-off.

Reducing this one-off can significantly change the numbers you see at month-end.

Because accumulations of small, unexplained one-offs matter more than one big loss.

Here’s a common misunderstanding:

Waiting doesn’t mean doing nothing.

There are things to do during the idle time.

・Organizing collapsed conditions

・Checking where to look next week

・Recording the trades you skipped

Just because you aren’t acting doesn’t mean you aren’t preparing a judgment.

There are people with this preparation and people who just watch the screen.

The first move when the price moves next will be completely different between them.

The idle time itself is the same length for everyone.

Only what you leave behind then matters later.

⚠ Do not carry over the perspective you formed while not watching

The perspective formed while away from the chart is just a hypothesis before it starts.

But as you think longer, when you resume, you tend to cling to the conclusions you've reached.

That’s bias.

After resuming, review whether you still hold that view by looking at the responses.

Changing it isn’t a loss.

Keeping a hypothesis as is is dangerous.

Therefore, during the first hour of the resume day, I focus on confirmations only and do not place orders.

If nothing comes after an hour, that day was not in scope.

The information you waited for can be used the next day as is.

⚠ Today’s task: The first hour on the resume day is confirmation only, do not place orders.

? Write one condition for skipping first

The week after a sharp rise, set skipping conditions before the entry conditions.

Writing this much in one line is enough.

【Did you confirm you stopped briefly in front of the upper-timeframe wall?】

【Are you not judging solely by the momentum of the lower time frame?】

【Is it just that it’s moving while the retrace is shallow?】

With just this, the urge to enter due to missing the move will clearly reduce!

If you can’t write it, it doesn’t mean you’re out of form.

It just means the confirmations aren’t finished yet.

At first, you’ll have days you can’t write. I was the same… w

If you separate the days you could write from the days you couldn’t, you can compare later.

When you realize the days you could write had more stable results, this one line’s value sinks in.

If you can’t write a skipping condition, you are not yet in a place to enter.

? Recording is about the inspection results, not predictions

I thought it would go up or down.

If you write it this way, nothing will be left to use next week.

What remains are the inspection results: whether the assumption held up or broke.

One line is enough to record this.

【Did you confirm you stopped before the wall?】

When the same shape appears again, the trick is to be able to apply it as is.

It’s enough to divide the records into three categories.

・Facts observed

・Reasons considered

・Actions taken

If you divide into three, you can understand them when you review later.

Was the fact correct but the reason missing?

Were the reasons correct but the action different?

A record predicting things in advance cannot be used next week, but the inspection results can.

? Today’s task: From this week’s record, separate the rows that wrote the predictions from the rows that wrote the inspection results.

? Before orders, return to one line

Increasing the number of confirmation items doesn’t necessarily improve things.

Too many items make you more likely to skip on busy days.

So in the end, you return to one line.

【Is this place within the range you decided to look at today】

That’s all.

Quickly confirm whether you can handle this one move.

Anything beyond that can wait until after you place the order.

The longer the explanation, the less your judgment is actually settled.

A move you can’t state briefly is a move whose organization isn’t finished yet.

This line will continue if you decide where to write it.

I keep a notebook open to the side of the chart.

Starting another app just makes you skip days where you don’t write (;'∀')

? Today’s task: decide where to write one line and be ready to write immediately when you next open it.

✔ Even skipping scenarios should be evaluated

Skipped trades don’t easily appear in records. Nothing happened, after all.

But a skipped trade with conditions not aligning has the same value as a trade that entered as conditions allowed.

We don’t look for whether it later moved up.

If you look at it, you’ll want to widen the range next time.

I believe skipped trades should be counted the same as entered trades.

When you start counting skipped trades, waiting stops being passive.

It remains as a day when you didn’t do anything, but you were filtered by conditions.

This difference leads to a calmer next week.

✔ Today’s task: record skipped trades as trades that did not lose, rather than as failed trades.

? Put tools as a support for confirmation

What tools provide are just candidate places to look.

Whether you enter there is another judgment call.

When candidates appear, check your position yourself as well.

Go back and forth between lower and higher timeframes to assess the state.

Often you arrive at the same conclusion. That’s fine.

If you can reach it yourself, that trade will be explainable.

When a different conclusion emerges, that’s the most learning moment today.

It isn’t about which is correct, but why the perception differed.

The speed of tools is used not to speed up judgments but to deepen confirmations.

? And, how does this affect the account

After reading this, some of you may think this.

If you follow the order of confirmations, will that make you win?

To be honest: simply following the order won’t make you win.

For me, the first change was not in win rate but in the number of trades.

When there is a field to write the conditions to retract, it becomes uncomfortable to enter without writing anything.

That discomfort turned into skipping as is.

As the number of trades decreases, you gain more focus per trade.

Only then could I start talking about the content.

? ✔ Until the number of trades settles, discussing the method alone won’t stick.

I’ll write not to expect too much.

You won’t be able to read the future direction after a sharp rise.

It doesn’t mean you’ll be okay with cutting losses easily.

What changes is only the entry point of judgment. When the entry point is aligned, the subsequent technique finally stacks up.

? This week, start by counting the number of times entered / skipped / unable-to-explain.

? Consolidate the three into one sequence

All the discussion up to here boils down to three things.

・Decide the range to look at first

・Write skipping conditions first

・Record the inspection results

Just perform these three in the same order every time.

That alone keeps the pattern of judgment even after a sharp rise.

? ⭕ Do the three in the same order every time. You can increase them after you stop collapsing.

When the order is fixed, you can see where it collapsed if it does.

If you change them every time, you move to the next week without properly isolating causes.

In my case, there were two clearly fragile moments.

・Right after a large move

・Right after a loss a little earlier

Once you know, you only need to watch these two.

Trying to do everything perfectly in every scenario usually doesn’t last… w

You won’t see where you skip the sequence unless you count for at least a week.

? Summary

After a sharp rise, you want to guess whether it will rise again.

But you should look not at the next direction.

Whether the condition you set before entering remains.

If it remains, continue.

If it’s broken, even if it looks the same, count it as a different scenario.

Drawing this line helps keep judgment from scattering on weeks with big moves.

Today’s task is only one thing.

Before opening the chart, try writing the scope you will look at today in one line.

【Today, just look at in-front-of-upper-timeframe wall】

Something like this is fine.

If you have a range first, you can strike out obvious places and then move on.

The place to write is enough if it’s in the notebook open beside the chart.

If you have to switch apps, you’ll skip days of writing.

Also, before placing orders, add another line for skipped conditions.

On days you can place these two lines, you will gain more explainable trades even if the total number of trades decreases.

If you continue for seven days, count the number of confirmations you could perform according to the procedure.

It’s not about win or loss; I’d like you to look at that aspect ^^

?See details of the Golden Line Sniper AI

Thank you always for reading ^^