[Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260816]
【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Sector Environment Awareness and Memo_20260816】
August 16th, Sunday.
Hello.
It is cloudy in the southern Kanto region.
As it has become dark, there is a high possibility of occasional rain.
I am seeking to spend meaningful time.
Now, with USD/JPY rising,
the cross yen has also risen.
However, the dollar indices hardly moved,
this was last week's chart.
USD/JPY stalled near 160.0,
and a long-term range seems likely.
Will the dollar index start moving on a dollar strength?
This week is worth watching.
Now, let's confirm.
This is the number of bars at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly 20th bar / 13
Weekly cycle 3, 23rd bar / 6LT
Weekly volatility 73 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 38th bar / 38
4HC 4th cycle, 10th bar / 9
We view it as such.
Weekly volatility is small, making trading difficult, but
on Friday the 14th a new high was reached.
If we think of 4HC as the 4th,
a downside scenario may be needed soon.
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20260816_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/dr2k4fQg-QI
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly 24th bar
Weekly cycle 3, 29th bar / 26 or
Weekly cycle 4, 15th bar / 12
Weekly volatility 189 pips
HPC 2nd or Daily chart 1st cycle, 10th bar / 9
4HC 1st cycle, 60th bar / 54
We view it as such.
There is a strong sense that the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart is acting as resistance.
Going forward, a range in the 159 yen area is highly possible,
and fundamentally
despite the upward momentum, intervention fears seem to be suppressing the bullish candles.
Is this week going to move little?
That scenario seems to be prioritized.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly 20th bar / 13
Weekly cycle 3, 20th bar / 5LT
Weekly volatility 87 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 38th bar / 38
4HC 4th cycle, 10th bar / 8
We view it as such.
Whether it moves toward dollar strength
or whether it is still in a corrective phase
is not clear, but
if it is a half primary cycle (HPC),
a significant drop is possible
and weekly volatility may increase.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly 25th bar / 21
Weekly cycle 4, 27th bar / 10LT
Weekly volatility 223 pips
Daily chart 1st or 3rd cycle, 10th bar / 10
4HC 1st cycle, 60th bar / 59
We view it as such.
If the 4HC closes from here,
it would be a four-hour chart expecting bearish candles.
If USD/JPY does not move
and EUR/USD declines,
that scenario will be prioritized, but
once movement starts, we would like to consider holding positions.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly 25th bar / 24
Weekly cycle 4, 26th bar / 22
Weekly volatility 326 pips
Daily chart 1st cycle, 10th bar / 10
4HC 1st cycle, 60th bar / 59
We view it as such.
If viewed on the daily chart as 1st cycle,
there is still potential for new highs,
but if GBP/USD temporarily declines,
it may be affected.
When encountering a 4HC milestone
Monday could be a bearish candle.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly 17th bar / 15
Weekly cycle 3, 26th bar / 16 or
Weekly cycle 4, 2nd bar
Weekly volatility 139 pips
Daily chart 1st cycle, 10th bar / 10
4HC 1st cycle, 57th bar / 56
We view it as such.
It is more of a late-moving currency pair,
the AUD/JPY.
We are looking at the timing for the closing of the 4HC.
The overall trend is upward,
but technically a bearish candle may occur.
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20260816_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/dr2k4fQg-QI
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DXY 99.636 -0.31%
US10Y 4.692 +0.92%
DJI 53737 points -108
US500 -0.27%
WTI 82.407 dollars
BRN 87.11 dollars
Nikkei 225 68,713 yen +405
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Let us learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168)_2】
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Nohbitorei
