MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug.17 2026
1. Review
The Nikkei 225 index closed last week at 68,713, up 3,107 points from the previous week. The week's low was 65,848 on Monday the 10th. The week's high was 69,608 on Friday the 14th. The week's low approached the weekly support line but did not fall below it and rebounded. Because the closing price exceeded the weekly upper resistance line, sentiment was bullish. Moreover, this closing price surpassed the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for two consecutive weeks. However, the underlying trend remains in a “neutral” state.
2. Cycles
As has been noted before, in “Forecast 2026” the long-term market cycle duration for the Nikkei 225 has been changed from 17 years to 19 years. However, there is no change to the starting point at October 28, 2008, when it was 6,994. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottomed or whether it has not yet bottomed will be a focus in 2026. That said, there is no change to the view that the current market is built on a four-year cycle, and the future development of the long-term market cycle will continue to be influenced by the most recent PC (usually 12–20 weeks) movements. Currently, from the perspective of the long-term market cycle, two very important lows are August 5, 2024 at 31,156 and April 7, 2025 at 30,792. And these two lows were the PC bottoms within 16 weeks and 19 weeks, respectively, surrounding the November 28, 2024 low of 37,801. The question remains how PC will be viewed thereafter.
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