Weekly DAO | Focus currencies for next week (third week of August 2026)

Interpreting Market Environment Recognitions with DAO

Good morning.
Thank you for checking this week’s Weekly DAO.

As August enters its mid-point, the heat continues. Although the market is in the summer vacation season and participation may be lower, it does not necessarily mean price movements will be small. In periods of low liquidity, sudden price moves can occur. While taking care of your health, we should face the market at a sustainable pace.

In the foreign exchange market, the environment surrounding the yen has changed significantly since the end of July. On July 30–31, Japan and the United States conducted yen-buying interventions, and caution about further interventions has continued since then. As of August 14, USDJPY is hovering around the 159 yen level, with 160 yen again in focus. Market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September are rising as well.

With such factors, one tends to think about the future—whether the yen will strengthen or whether another intervention will occur.

However, what is important in this week’s “Weekly DAO” is not that.

What is happening on the chart right now.

We will confirm this with the DAO.

This project is not a piece predicting next week’s price movement.

We will check EMA20 on MN1, W1, D1, H4, H1, determine whether the long-term and short-term directions align, how far the current price is from EMA20, and where market participants’ power dynamics are divided.

DAO is an indicator I actually use in real trades.

This article is also a personal market environment recognition and is not investment advice.

This Week’s DAO One Point

“Response to Currencies, Indices, and Cryptocurrencies”

The features of the DAO introduced this time are,that it can be used for environment recognition not only in FX but also across a wide range of markets such as indices and cryptocurrencies.

In the DAO analysis table this time,

• AUDJPY

• AUDUSD

• BTCUSD

• CADJPY

• EURJPY

• EURUSD

• GBPJPY

• GBPUSD

• GOLD

• JP225

• NZDJPY

• USDJPY

shows that not only currency pairs but also BTCUSD, GOLD, and JP225 are evaluated with the same approach.

Of course, each market has its own price movement characteristics.

For example, BTCUSD has large price ranges, and GOLD can exhibit rapid price movements. JP225 is also affected by stock market trading hours and news.

Nevertheless, the fundamental idea of DAO does not change.

“Look at the direction of the higher time frame”

“Look at the position of EMA20”

“Look at the distance from the current price”

“Compare the power relations by time frame”

These shared viewpoints enable environment recognition.

In other words, DAO is not just an indicator to look at a single currency.It is a tool to perform environment recognition using the same procedure even when the market changes.

Even when market focus shifts from FX to GOLD, BTC, or indices, the first step is to整理ize what state it is in now.

This mindset is what DAO values.

Top 3 Currencies to Watch Next Week

In this DAO analysis, we compared the directions of long-term and short-term horizons, the density of EMA20, the distance from the current price, and the clarity of environmental recognition.

From those, we will select three assets to particularly monitor next week.

Third place: AUDUSD

AUDUSD has all EMA20s on MN1, W1, D1, H4, H1 pointing upwards.

In particular, the distances from EMA20 on H1 are 5.2p and 16.6p on H4, making it relatively easy to confirm the short- and medium-term position relationships.

Currently biased toward buying.

I want to observe how the price behaves around H1 EMA20 and whether the upward direction on D1 and the short-term timeframe align.

Second place: GBPUSD

GBPUSD also has all MN1, W1, D1, H4, H1 EMA20 pointing upwards.

From H1 EMA20 distance at 8.2p and from H4 at 25.6p, the distances between short- and mid-term EMA20s are relatively close, and the directions align from long to short.

DAO shows a buying bias.

However, the key is not “buy because it is favored,” but to confirm whether the buying-side strength is maintained around H1 EMA20.

First place: EURUSD