Financial Instruments Business Operator Kanto Finance Bureau Director (Kinsho) No. 1960 / Membership Association Japan Investment Advisers Association Membership No. 012-02323 Go to GogoJungle Home
icon List
Hikaru
08/14/2026 19:35
Release： 08/14/2026 19:35
Update： 08/14/2026 19:35
Hikaru
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : 7-10 years
Investment amount : 1 million - 5 million JPY
Nice to meet you. I have 9 years of investing experience and have been conducting market analysis with FX as my main focus. Leveraging my experience, I am creating FX indicators that make buy/sell decisions easier to understand. What I value most is "clarity," "ease of use," and "minimal hesitation in judgment." To ensure even beginners can use them intuitively, I strive to express complex information as simply as possible. While there is no absolute in the market, I hope to help create an environment where you can make calm, well-reasoned decisions instead of relying solely on intuition. I will respond as politely as possible to any questions or consultations. Thank you very much.
Article cover image

[August 16 Gold] Can it hold at $4,310, will it recover to $4,400 at the start of the week or hover around $4,220?

Conclusion: The Monday Morning Turning Point is “Up to $4,400, Down to $4,310”

August 16 is a Sunday, and the regular XAU/USD market is closed.Therefore, based on the results up to August 14, this article整理 the conditions to confirm at the beginning of the week.

Gold on the 14th started around $4,356 and fell to around $4,311 according to multiple data providers.The prior article’s downside condition of breaking below $4,360 was satisfied, and it reached the next confirmation level of $4,310–$4,320.However, this does not indicate forecast accuracy; it is the result of comparing conditions with actuals.

The Monday morning center is,Up to $4,400, down to $4,310–$4,320.

  • Recover and hold above $4,400：Room to test $4,450 again
  • Within $4,310–$4,400：Keep direction uncertain
  • Clearly break below $4,310：Next check $4,220–$4,250

In this article, the terms “recovery” and “clearly break” refer to the hourly close ending outside the level and not quickly returning to the prior range after that.

Review of August 14

On August 14, physical gold showed a large discrepancy between the high and the close depending on the data source.There is a big gap between the daily high and the daily close depending on the data provider.

Investing.com XAU/USD datashows a open of $4,356.69, a low of $4,311.22, and a daily close price of $4,376.59. Meanwhile,Myfxbook XAU/USD datashows an open of $4,356.38, a low of $4,311.02, and a close of $4,321.38.

Spot gold closes vary by data provider and daily close boundary. This time, both sources largely agree on the path of“opening around $4,356 and dropping below $4,360 to around $4,311”.

U.S. July retail and food services sales released on the 14th fell0.6% month-over-month,U.S. Census Bureau official releaseand the Dollar Index alsofell 0.31% to 99.65, which could support gold.Investing.com Dollar Index

Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.63% on the 13th to4.68% on the 14th, and the 10-year real yield rose from2.39% to 2.41%.U.S. Treasury nominal yield・Real yieldIn this article,the combination of weak retail sales and dollar softness supporting gold, with rising yields capping upsideis summarized.

Major price bands for the week ahead

BandReason to monitor
$4,500Psychological milestone. Next target after stabilization at $4,450
$4,440–$4,450Upper resistance zone where August 12–13 highs converge
$4,400Recent psychological center. The turning point to see if it can move higher
$4,360–$4,380Short-term battleground where the opening on the 14th and some sources’ final values coincide
$4,310–$4,320Low range confirmed by several sources on the 14th. Key support for Monday
$4,220–$4,250Low range for August 6–7. Next potential support after breaking $4,310

Three scenarios to consider

Scenario 1: Recover to $4,400 and re-confirm $4,450

Condition: The hourly chart closes above $4,400 and does not break back below $4,400 subsequentlyThis would indicate the decline on the 14th is being absorbed, and next we would test $4,440–$4,450.

If the dollar index falls below 100 and the rise in U.S. 10-year nominal and real yields subsides, it becomes easier to support higher prices. However, if it immediately reenters the $4,360s, the breakout is not confirmed.

Scenario 2: Look for direction within $4,310–$4,400

Maintain $4,310–$4,320 while failing to recover to $4,400 on a closeIn this case, the range is likely to define the direction.

When factors like dollar weakness and rising yields conflict, or if markets gap at Monday open, avoid locking in a direction and wait for price action to settle outside $4,400 or $4,310.

Scenario 3: Break below $4,310 and confirm $4,220–$4,250

Hourly close below $4,310 and unable to recover above $4,320In this case, the next support would be the August 6–7 low range of $4,220–$4,250.

If the U.S. 10-year nominal and real yields rise further and the Dollar Index recovers above 100, downside conditions become stronger. However, if price quickly recovers to around $4,360, this breakdown is not deemed persistent.

Important items for next week: FOMC minutes and U.S. rates

Next week, the focus is on the FOMC minutes from July 28–29, released at3:00 a.m. Japan time on August 20.FRB August schedule

At the July meeting, the decision to hold the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% was made9–3, with three dissenters calling for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike.FRB July FOMC statement

The minutes will confirm three points:

  • Widening support for rate hikes: Were there participants considering hikes beyond the three dissenters?
  • Policy judgment conditions: At what inflation and employment conditions do they think policy could change?
  • Inflation pressure assessment: How they evaluate energy prices and Middle East developments

The minutes show cautious debate on hikes; if U.S. rates fall, gold could be supported. Conversely, broader confirmation of rate hikes and rising real yields could weigh on gold.

Key schedule for early next week (Japan time)

  • Aug 17, 21:30: U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing ISM
  • Aug 18, 21:30: U.S. import/export prices, U.S. housing starts
  • Aug 18, 22:15: U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization
  • Aug 20, 3:00: July FOMC Minutes

Announcements can be checked inNew York Fed Economic Indicators Calendarand other sources. U.S. Eastern Time is shown with daylight saving adjustment to Japan time (+13 hours).

Summary

Gold on August 14 fell below the previous turning point of $4,360 and moved to $4,310–$4,320.For the week ahead, we will verify whether it can recover to $4,400 or maintain $4,310.

  • Recover and hold above $4,400：Reconfirm $4,440–$4,450
  • Within $4,310–$4,400：Keep direction undecided
  • Clearly break below $4,310：Next check $4,220–$4,250

Because the end-of-day price on August 14 varies by data source,for Monday, please first check the opening price from your data provider.In addition to price, it is important to consider the dollar index, U.S. 10-year nominal and real yields, and the reaction after the August 20 FOMC minutes.

※This article is based on publicly available information and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The scenarios presented do not guarantee future price movements, and rates, trading hours, and daily boundaries vary by data provider and broker. Gold prices can change rapidly due to economic indicators, interest rates, exchange rates, and geopolitical events. Please make your final investment decisions at your own risk.

References

Prices vary by data provider and update time. The prices in this article are reference values for spot gold (XAU/USD) as of around 7:46 JST on August 15, 2026, and differ from gold futures prices.