2026/08/14　Yen-to-US-dollar cadent market analysis

This is the USD/JPY 4-hour chart.

The 4-hour Elliott wave is currently the 4th wave of a downtrend Elliott wave.

The 4-hour cyclethe red lineis the starting point, and we are currently observing 57 scenarios.

The green linereaches its high at the 54th count, so this 4-hour cycle is likely to form a brief light translation.

In the 4-hour cycle, a high at the 54th level is, even for forming a light translation, a peak-time high.

And,the green linehigh can also be regarded as the high of the hourly C wave.

Therefore, at present,the green linehigh is viewed as the top of the 4-hour cycle.

From herethe green linerises above, it will be counted as an extension of the hourly C wave, so we will view it as a continuation of the 4-hour 4th wave.

However,the green linerises above it, the 4-hour cycle is at a peak time, so we will always scrutinize the 4-hour cycle top with caution.

Because the previous 4-hour cycle formed a left translation, and the current 4-hour cycle is highly likely to form a right translation,the red lineis likely where a major cycle has started.

However, since the 4-hour Elliott wave is currently the 4th wave of a downtrend, and we expect a move downward in the 5th wave, the current 4-hour cycle top will become the major cycle top.

Therefore, the current major cycle is highly likely to form a left translation, so from the next 4-hour cycle onwardthe red lineis expected to breach on the downside.

Given the above, I am looking at the market from a selling perspective.

As for the trading strategy, I am aiming to enter short near the top of this 4-hour cycle.

The stop order for the short should, at present, be placed beyond thegreen line.

After breaking above the green line, if a short entry occurs, treat it as a high exceeding the 4-hour cycle top.

Current positions.

The short on the Canadian dollar/yen-15 pipstriggered a stop loss.

The Nikkei 225 short position (72373.37) has already locked in 50% of the position for profit, so going forward even if the stop is hit, there will be no financial loss.

Current unrealized profit is+9250 pips, right?

With the Obon holiday market not moving at all, I will calmly monitor the market.

Wishing you all a good time as well.

As of 2026, the accumulated profit is+3898 pips❣️