8/14【Launch FX】GOLD ＆ BTC Daily Market Analysis Report

Hello everyone. This is "Ronchi FX".
Today as of August 14, we summarize and deliver fundamental analysis and technical analysis on gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD) across different timeframes. We hope it serves as a reference for daily market environment awareness and chart checks.

1. Overall Fundamental Environment

? Expectations of US rate cuts and macro environment (a common tailwind)

With the cooling of US inflation indicators, expectations for additional rate cuts by the Fed remain strong. The decline in real interest rates is seen as a factor that supports longer-term downside for both “gold,” which doesn’t yield interest, and risk asset “Bitcoin.”

⚠️ Risk factors and profit-taking selling

On the other hand, both assets are near important historical levels and highs, so short-term profit-taking selling can enter from a sense of achievement of gains.

2. GOLD (XAU/USD) Analysis

Current price: about 4,360 - 4,362 dollars

• ■ Daily chart (D1) | Struggle with the long-term trend line
  Environment recognition:There is a medium-to-longer term bullish environment, but on the chart the price has reached the long-term downtrend line around 4,490 - 4,500 dollars (red diagonal line) and the upside pressure is evident.
  Today's focal point:Whether the daily close clearly breaks above 4,500 dollars, or is rejected forming a long upper wick, will inform the medium-to-long-term direction.
  General trader perspective:Until the battle is decided, direction is uncertain, so some adopt a cautious stance waiting for a close confirmation, while others anticipate a rebound (pullback) around 4,490 - 4,500 dollars.
• ■ 4-hour chart (H4) | Correction from high price area
  Environment recognition:From the recent high of 4,460 dollars, profit-taking led to a pullback to the 4,360s, and the price is currently around 4,360 dollars.
  Today's focal point:Major nearby support is around 4,330 - 4,340 dollars. If this breaks, a deeper correction toward the 4,030 - 4,050 dollar area could be anticipated.
  General trader perspective:Whether a bottom forms around 4,330 - 4,340 dollars is of key interest. If support fails, a continued correction wave is anticipated; if it holds, it could be a zone to consider buying on dips.
• ■ 1-hour chart (H1) | Short-term down Dow and retracement
  Environment recognition:From the highs of 4,460 - 4,470 dollars, a short-term down pattern with lower highs and lows is forming, and the current price is around 4,360 dollars.
  Today's focal point:When a rebound toward the short-term target around 4,390 - 4,410 dollars occurs, whether upside momentum weakens is the key point.
  General trader perspective:Around 4,390 - 4,410 dollars, rebound selling pressure tends to rise, and the lower target around 4,340 - 4,330 dollars is often watched as support.
• ■ 30-minute / 15-minute charts (M30 / M15) | Short-term range formation
  Environment recognition:Nearby lows around 4,340 - 4,350 dollars have paused the decline, and the price is currently trading around the 4,360s with sideways movement.
  Today's focal point:Whether the price breaks above the range high around 4,380 - 4,390 dollars or below the range low around 4,340 - 4,350 dollars will be a short-term volatility indicator.
  General trader perspective:Around the range high (4,380 - 4,390 dollars), rebound selling pressure is a concern, while breaking below the lower bound (4,340 dollars) suggests a possible short-term down move.

3. BTC (BTC/USD) Analysis

Current price: about 63,495 - 63,500 dollars

• ■ Daily chart (D1) | Retracement from a low zone and bottoming
  Environment recognition:Found a bottom around the 59,000 - 60,000 dollars area and since then has been rebounding; currently range-bound between 63,000 and 65,000 dollars.
  Today's focal point:Whether the 65,000 dollar resistance line can be realized as a daily close, which would be a long-term point of interest.
  General trader perspective:As long as 60,000 dollars is not broken, price action tends to stay in a range with unclear direction until a clear breakout above 65,000 dollars.
• ■ 4-hour chart (H4) | Range-bound near high prices
  Environment recognition:From the near 65,700 dollars, resistance holds and the price has pulled back to the 63,000s and is ranging.
  Today's focal point:Whether the support around 62,500 - 63,000 dollars can hold. A clear break below could lead to a correction toward the 61,000s.
  General trader perspective:Focus on the bounce potential around the 62,500 - 63,000 dollar support band, while watching downside pressure if it breaks.
• ■ 1-hour chart (H1) | Short-term down wave and support defense
  Environment recognition:Recently a short-term down wave with lower highs and lows has formed around 65,500 dollars, with the current price near 63,500 dollars.
  Today's focal point:What happens when price rebounds toward 64,000 - 64,300 dollars, and whether upside momentum remains strong.
  General trader perspective:Around 64,000 - 64,300 dollars, rebound selling pressure tends to rise, while the lower target around 62,800 - 63,000 dollars serves as a support level to watch.
• ■ 30-minute / 15-minute charts (M30 / M15) | Sell-off rally after a drop; lower range trading
  Environment recognition:A sharp drop to around 62,800 dollars was followed by a rebound with a lower wick, and the price is currently trading in a narrow range of 63,400 - 63,600 dollars.
  Today's focal point:In the short term, 63,800 - 64,000 dollars act as upper resistance, while 62,800 - 63,000 dollars act as lower support; which way the price breaks will influence short-term momentum.
  General trader perspective:Considering the lower wick at the 15-minute level (buyback), but staying cautious within the range squeezed by higher time-frame rebound selling pressure.

※This article aims to provide objective analysis and information based on charts and market data and does not constitute a recommendation or advice for specific buying or selling actions.