The win rate faith is really something you should stop believing in.
Traders Proud of a 90% Win Rate, Why They Melt Their Account
But with only that number, you can’t tell whether they are actually winning.
When you open social media, you’ll see posts like “Win rate 90% achieved!” “9 wins out of 10!”. Looking at the numbers alone, you’d think they’re an amazing trader. And many beginners think, “I should aim for a high win rate too.”
But to be frank.Among traders who boast a 90% win rate, there are a lot who are actually blowing up their accounts.A win rate alone cannot tell you whether a trader is profitable.
This time, we’ll explain why win rate alone is meaningless and the traps lurking behind a high win rate. Understanding this is the first step to correctly interpreting trading numbers.
Even with a 90% win rate, you can go bankrupt
Let’s consider a simple example. A trader makes 10 trades, wins 9 and loses 1. The win rate is 90%. It looks like an excellent figure.
But what if the contents were as follows? The 9 winning trades each yield 10,000 yen in profit. Total 90,000 yen. However, the single losing trade loses 100,000 yen.Net result is minus 10,000 yen.Even with a 90% win rate, you’re losing money.
This isn’t an extreme case. In reality, many traders fall into this trap. They push for high win rates by taking small profits and exiting, and when a rare big loss hits, it wipes out all the gains.High win rate, yet capital decreases—this is the fate of win-rate faith.
Win: 9 times × +10,000 yen = +90,000 yen
Loss: 1 time × -100,000 yen = -100,000 yen
Total: -10,000 yen (winning rate 90% but net loss)
No matter how high the win rate, one big loss reduces your capital.