[August 13 Gold] Can it maintain $4,400, break through $4,450 with US PPI, or fall below $4,360
Conclusion: Today's pivotal point is "up to $4,450, down to $4,360"
As of early morning on August 13, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is around $4,408 per troy ounce. On the 12th it began near $4,371, rose from a low of $4,366 to a high of $4,441, and closed around $4,407.XAU/USD data from Investing.com
The July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in line with market expectations, easing fears of renewed inflation pressures, which supported gold. However, the $4,440 area remains a ceiling, and the US 10-year yield has retraced to around 4.688%.
The focus today is whether $4,400 can be held. If it clearly breaks above $4,450, $4,500 comes into view; conversely, if it slips below $4,360, there is room for a correction to around $4,310–$4,320.
Review of August 12
The July CPI in the US showed overall +0.1% month-over-month, +3.4% year-over-year, with core (ex-food and energy) +0.2% m/m, +2.5% y/y. Year-over-year, both overall and core slowed from the previous month.Official release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Gold rose after CPI data, and the spot price on the 12th was up 0.82% from the previous day. The recovery above $4,400 shows strength, but it has been pushed back from the high of $4,441.
What matters here is that CPI supported gold's rise, while the decline in long-term interest rates has not yet settled. As of writing, the dollar index is 99.86 and the US 10-year yield is 4.688%. For gold to rise further, maintaining $4,400 along with a stabilization in the dollar and U.S. interest rates is needed.
Important price levels for today
| Price Level | Reason to Watch |
|---|---|
| $4,500 | Psychological milestone. Next upside target after breaking $4,450 |
| $4,440–$4,450 | Upside resistance zone including the intraday high of $4,441 on the 12th |
| $4,400 | Current core level. A psychological threshold that could decide whether the rally continues or falters |
| $4,360–$4,370 | Support zone where the 11th low of $4,356 and the 12th low of $4,366 converge |
| $4,310–$4,320 | Around the 10th low of $4,312. Next support after a break of $4,360 |
| $4,230–$4,250 | 6–7 day low range. Confirm level if the pullback deepens |
Three scenarios to consider
Scenario 1: Break above $4,450 and test $4,500
If $4,400 is held and there is a clear breakout above $4,440–$4,450, the likelihood of further gains grows. The next target is the psychological milestone of $4,500.
This scenario would be supported by CPI undershooting expectations, a decline in longer-term US rates, and a weaker dollar index.
However, even if it briefly surpasses $4,450, if it quickly returns to the lower $4,400s, the breakout may not be sustained.
Scenario 2: Range between $4,360 and $4,450 continues
If price remains around $4,400 and cannot break above $4,450 or below $4,360, a range-trade market looking for direction is the base scenario.
CPI gave gold a tailwind, but much of that has already been priced in. If today’s PPI comes in near expectations, there could be choppy trading around $4,400.
In the middle of the range, avoid forcing a direction; monitor reactions at the upper and lower bounds.
Scenario 3: Break below $4,360 and adjust toward the $4,310–$4,320 area
If $4,360 is clearly broken and cannot recover above $4,400, short-term upside may pause. The next downside target is around $4,310–$4,320.
If the US PPI comes in above expectations and both long-term rates and the dollar rise together, this scenario becomes more likely.
If $4,310 cannot be held, there is potential for a broader correction toward $4,230–$4,250.
Today's biggest event: US PPI at 21:30
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on August 13, and 21:30 Japan Time.Scheduled BLS release
Market expectations before the release are +0.2% m/m, with -0.3% previous month. Note: this is forecast data, not actual figures.Forex Factory market expectations
If the result is below expectations: lower interest rates and a weaker dollar may help break above $4,450
If around expectations: range between $4,360 and $4,450 likely to continue
If above expectations: rising rates and stronger dollar could raise caution about breaking below $4,360
At the same time, US initial jobless claims will be released. Be mindful of possible reversals driven by the combination of employment data with PPI.
Additionally, around 2:00 a.m. Japan time on the 14th, a U.S. 30-year bond auction is scheduled.U.S. Treasury auction schedule
Weak auction demand could weigh on long-term yields and gold; strong demand could help by pushing yields lower.
Summary
On August 13, the central issue for gold is whether $4,400 can be held. Although an uptick remains after CPI, price faces resistance around $4,440, and today’s PPI will help determine the next direction.
If above $4,450: possibility of testing $4,500
$4,360–$4,450: range to gauge direction
If below $4,360: risk of correction toward $4,310–$4,320
Not only price, but also the US 10-year yield, dollar index, and the path back to $4,400 after the PPI release should be reviewed together.
※This article is a market analysis based on publicly available information and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. Gold prices can change rapidly due to economic indicators, interest rates, exchange rates, geopolitical developments, etc. Final investment decisions are your responsibility.
Prices vary by information source and time of acquisition. The prices cited here are approximately as of 6:20 on August 13, 2026, for spot gold (XAU/USD); futures prices may differ.