Gold on August 12 (XAU/USD) is in a phase where the near-term rally is taking a breather, awaiting whether to break 4,350 or 4,400 dollars.

In summary, the current view is

"Neutral to mildly cautious of a pullback. However, as long as 4,350 dollars is held, the uptrend is not considered fully broken."

.

Around 8:30 a.m. on August 12 (Japan time), XAU/USD is trading around $4,370.

Today, with the U.S. CPI data to be released, it is important not to decide trades solely on pre-announcement directions, but to confirm

whether the price recovers to $4,400
or breaks below $4,350

in conjunction with the reactions of the dollar and U.S. yields.

Current directional bias: Neutral to mildly cautious of a pullback
Confidence: Low to Moderate (before the CPI release)

A look back at gold on August 11

On August 11, XAU/USD moved roughly as follows:

• Open: near $4,403

• High: near $4,435

• Low: near $4,357

• Close: near $4,367

• Compared with the previous day: about a 0.8% decline

It rose past $4,400 to around $4,435 briefly, but failed to sustain that zone and pushed back to the mid-$4,360s.XAU/USD daily chart and current price data

From this price action, two main points emerge.

First,

there are still profit-taking and pullback selling above $4,400.

Second,

near $4,350, the price paused and turned back up for the moment.

In other words, the current situation is not simply a continuation of the uptrend, but

after failing to break through $4,400, the market is looking for the next direction

.

Key price zones for August 12

① $4,400

This is the breakout point on the upside for today.

Although it briefly surpassed $4,400 yesterday, it did not stay above it.

Therefore today, it is not enough to simply reach $4,400;

we want to see whether it can recover to $4,400 and hold the pullback after that

.

If CPI is released and the price recovers to $4,400 while dollar weakness and U.S. yield declines also progress, the case for a resumed upmove strengthens.

② $4,435

Yesterday’s high.

If $4,400 recovers, this becomes the next level to gauge buying strength.

Clear movement above $4,435 would bring the next major milestone into view,

around $4,500

which would be watched again.

Conversely, if price is capped again near $4,435, the $4,400–$4,435 zone may be acting as resistance.

③ $4,370–$4,380

A near-term battle zone close to the current price.

In yesterday’s article, $4,370 was viewed as a short-term support, but on August 11 it briefly dipped below it.

Thus now we should not regard $4,370 as a definite support, but rather as the first test line for an upside move.

Before CPI, price action around this zone may be range-bound.

④ $4,350–$4,360

The most important downside zone today.

The previous day’s low near $4,357 will determine whether the current short-term uptrend can be maintained.

If CPI is released and price stays above $4,350, this decline can be viewed as a profit-taking pullback after an upmove.

If price breaks below $4,350 and cannot recover,

a further short-term pullback could materialize

.

⑤ $4,310–$4,300

Next important zone if $4,350 breaks.

Around $4,310 is near the August 10 low, and $4,300 is a psychologically important level.

Even if price falls to this level, it does not immediately indicate a longer-term downtrend, but the short-term uptrend momentum would be clearly weakening.

A clear break to $4,300 could imply a move toward $4,250–$4,230.

Three scenarios for August 12

Scenario 1: CPI and recovery to $4,400

A move back higher.

If U.S. CPI comes in below market expectations,

• the Dollar Index falls

• U.S. 10-year yields fall

• gold recovers above $4,400

This would provide a relatively clear bullish catalyst for gold.

In this case, the path watched would be:

Maintain $4,400
↓
Break above $4,435
↓
Be mindful of $4,500

.

However, if CPI immediately after release pushes above $4,400 for a moment and then quickly returns to the $4,370s, be wary of a bullish trap.

Scenario 2: Range of $4,350–$4,400 continues

If CPI is close to expectations and dollar and yields react only modestly, this scenario could unfold.

In that case, gold tends to oscillate between

buying near $4,350 and selling near $4,400

and not commit to a clear direction until a breakout of the range.

The key is not to force a directional call within the range.

As long as it remains within $4,350–$4,400, we should wait to see which side it breaks out from.

Scenario 3: Break below $4,350 after CPI

A scenario flagging an extended pullback.

If U.S. CPI comes in above expectations,

• the Dollar Index rises

• U.S. 10-year yields rise

• gold breaks below $4,350

This would open room to $4,310–$4,300.

In this case too, avoid a quick judgment based on a brief dip;

watch whether price can recover after breaking $4,350

to confirm if the uptrend remains intact or not.

If it falls below $4,300, it would not be simply a small pullback; the short-term uptrend structure may need reassessment.

Today’s most significant factor is CPI

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July CPI at 8:30 a.m. on August 12 (Eastern Time), or 9:30 p.m. Japan time.

Last June CPI data showed:

• Overall CPI: month-over-month -0.4%, year-over-year +3.5%

• Core CPI: month-over-month flat, year-over-year +2.6%

.U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Market expectations this time are broadly as follows.

• Overall CPI: month-over-month +0.1%, year-over-year +3.4%

• Core CPI: month-over-month about +0.3%, year-over-year +2.5%

Kiplinger CPI Preview

What matters most this time is not only the overall CPI but also

core CPI excluding food and energy

.

Even if headline CPI comes in below expectations, a strong core CPI could push U.S. yields higher and cap gold’s upside.

Therefore, it is important not to look at the numbers alone, but to

observe how the dollar and U.S. 10-year yields actually move in response to the data

.

Also watch the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction after CPI

On August 12, a U.S. 10-year Treasury auction is also scheduled.U.S. Treasury auction schedule

After the CPI release triggers the initial price moves, yields could move again due to the auction.

Weak auction demand and rising yields could weigh on gold, while strong auction demand and falling yields could support gold.

Thus today, the CPI reaction alone does not necessarily determine the day’s direction.

Conclusion for August 12

Gold on August 11 briefly cleared $4,400 but could not sustain that level and fell back to the $4,360s.

Therefore, from the previous day’s “bullish bias,” the view today shifts to

neutral to mildly cautious of a pullback

instead.

However, since it has held near $4,350, we cannot say the uptrend has completely broken yet.

Today’s decision criteria are as follows.

Recover and hold above $4,400
→ Reconfirm $4,435

Break above $4,435
→ Next upside target around $4,500

Range of $4,350–$4,400
→ Direction undetermined. Range continuation

Clearly break below $4,350
→ Watch for a pullback to $4,310–$4,300

Break below $4,300
→ Reevaluate the short-term uptrend structure

Most important today is not forecasting CPI numbers, but

observing whether after CPI, price stays on the $4,350 or $4,400 side

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