Gold on August 11 (XAU/USD) continues to maintain an upward tilt in the short term.

However, it has risen to a very important price zone at present.

The main point today is,

“whether it can break through 4,400 dollars”

.

As of writing, XAU/USD is around $4,390.

In the previous day's trading, there was a move down toward around $4,313, but then it rebounded strongly and rose to around $4,395.

Therefore, at present,

the uptrend continues

, while

we are at a stage where important resistance has been reached

.

What was important for gold on August 10

Gold on August 10 rose to a nine-week high at one point.

According to Reuters, spot gold rose to the mid-4,376s as of U.S. time in the afternoon, and U.S. gold futures closed around $4,419.70. citeturn717793view1

The background includes:

• Last week's weak U.S. employment data

• A retreat in expectations of additional rate hikes by the Fed

• Purchases of gold by the People's Bank of China

• Ambiguity surrounding Middle East tensions

• Technical momentum pointing upward

There is.

What is particularly interesting is:

despite the dollar and U.S. interest rates rising, gold also rising.

The dollar index rose to 99.80 on August 10. The U.S. 10-year yield also rose to around 4.70%. Normally, this combination is a headwind for gold.

Even so, since price is rising, one can conclude that there remains relatively strong buying pressure on gold.

However, this is my market interpretation and does not guarantee future gains.

Important price levels today

① 4,390–4,400 dollars

This is today’s most important zone.

Around $4,389 sits the 100-day moving average, and above it lies the psychological milestone of $4,400.

Therefore,

we want to see not only a brief break above 4,400 but also whether price can be sustained above it

.

If price can stay above 4,400, the current up move is more likely to continue one more step.

In that case, the next major price level to watch would be

around 4,500

as a level of focus.

Around 4,498 sits the 200-day moving average as well.

② 4,370 dollars

A very important short-term support candidate.

Having broken above the price range that had been acting as resistance,

whether old resistance can now function as support

will be watched.

If price breaks through 4,400 but reverses and stalls near 4,370, the short-term uptrend structure may still be intact.

③ 4,340–4,350 dollars

The next important zone.

It is near the open and close of the previous day, so if price returns to this zone, it may indicate profit-taking after failing to break 4,400. The previous day’s close was around 4,342.

Whether this level can be held will be the next point to decide whether the short-term upside can continue.

④ 4,310–4,300 dollars

Today’s important downside line.

The previous day's low was around 4,313.

If it clearly breaks below 4,300,

the current short-term upside momentum would be expected to weaken for a while

.

Three scenarios for August 11

Scenario 1: Breakthrough of 4,400

The strongest pattern.

If price breaks above 4,400 and holds 4,390–4,400 on pullbacks,

the uptrend is likely to continue

, and the next major target around 4,500 would be watched.

However, be careful of a temporary “fakeout” that briefly pushes above 4,400 and then reverses.

Scenario 2: Rebound at 4,400 → 4,370

Personally, this is a scenario worth considering.

Gold has risen sharply in a short period.

Thus, profit-taking at the big round number of 4,400 is not unusual.

What matters is not that it fell, but where it stops falling

where price finds support

.

If it rebounds around 4,370, the short-term upward structure is considered to be intact.

Scenario 3: Break 4,370 and 4,340 too

In this case, a bit of caution is warranted.

If a break above 4,370 fails and 4,340 also gives way,

4,370
↓
4,340

and continues to drop, it could signal a shift toward stronger profit-taking in the short term.

In that case, a move toward

4,310–4,300

would be anticipated.

If price moves down to 4,300 or below, it is necessary to check whether the move is a pullback or a fundamental change in the short-term upside momentum.

Today’s CPI Eve is also important

Today, August 11, is not the day with the most important U.S. economic indicators releasing.

Market focus, rather, is on

the U.S. CPI on August 12

.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July CPI will be released at 8:30 a.m. on August 12 (Eastern Time), and 21:30 JST on August 12. citeturn717793view5

Reuters market expectations indicate a slowdown to

CPI year-over-year: 3.4%
Previous month: 3.5%

.

Thus, on August 11, there is a view that

positions are not easily biased in one direction ahead of CPI

.

Even breaking 4,400 may not lead to further upside and a range could form.

Also watch U.S. Treasury auctions

Another item to confirm today is the U.S. Treasuries market.

The U.S. Treasury will conduct a $58 billion 3-year note auction on August 11. The auction time is 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time, and 2:00 a.m. Japan time on August 12.

Currently, the U.S. 10-year yield is around 4.70%.

If rates rise further following the auction, that could weigh on gold’s upside.

Conversely, if rates fall, it could bolster a break above 4,400.

Conclusion for August 11

At present,

gold has a short-term upside bias

.

However, it has already reached an important resistance band.

Therefore, today’s decision-making criterion is very simple.

Break and sustain above 4,400
→ Higher likelihood of continued upside

Break below 4,400 and hold above 4,370
→ Downward adjustment within the uptrend

Fall below 4,370
→ Check for 4,340–4,350

Fall below 4,340
→ Watch for a 4,310–4,300 adjustment

What’s especially important is not whether price “went above 4,400” but whether price can stay above 4,400.

Currently, the upside momentum is strong, but CPI data in the United States is due the next day.

Thus, today it is important not to force a direction, and to monitor which level—4,400 or 4,370—will be clearly broken first.

This article aims to analyze market conditions and does not recommend buying or selling any particular financial product. It does not guarantee future price movements.