Gold (XAU/USD) on August 10th shows that, in the short term, an uptrend is being maintained, but given the sharp rally on Friday, we should watch for price action around the higher end of the range.This is.

To conclude, I see tomorrow's gold as

“Bullish bias. However, not a moment to chase buying; I want to verify whether $4,300 can hold.”

.

Looking back at last week's gold

On August 7th, XAU/USD was broadly

• Open: around $4,252

• High: around $4,372

• Low: around $4,230

• Close: around $4,343

and rose significantly. citeturn237348search10

The week also rose by more than 7%, reaching the highest level in about seven weeks. citeturn243050view0turn237348news21

What was important in this rise was the U.S. employment statistics.

July non-farm payrolls were +80,000 versus expectations of +80,000, i.e., a decline of 23,000.

In response,

• Dollar index fell to 99.50

• U.S. 2-year yield fell to 4.245%

• U.S. 10-year yield fell to 4.649%

• Expectations of rate hikes at the September FOMC faded

This was. citeturn243050view1

A combination of “lower U.S. rates + weaker dollar” tends to be a tailwind for gold.

Price ranges to watch on August 10

Tomorrow I will focus on the following levels.

Upside

$4,370

First, the high from Friday.

If we clearly break above this, Friday’s rally may not be temporary and buying may be continuing.

Beyond that,

$4,400

A round number as well, the $4,370–$4,400 range is viewed as the key upside zone for tomorrow.

Downside

First, watch

$4,300

Because it rose sharply on Friday, some profit-taking is not unnatural.

“whether buying comes in near $4,300 after a drop.”

If $4,300 is clearly broken, the room for adjustment expands to

$4,250–$4,230

This zone corresponds to the Friday opening to low range and is where this rally began.

Three scenarios for tomorrow

① Maintain $4,300 → Break through $4,370

The strongest scenario.

If it trades above $4,300 and breaks through $4,370,

a retest of $4,400

becomes a consideration.

If dollar weakness and U.S. rate declines also progress, the upside becomes more coherent.

② Cannot break above $4,370 → Adjust toward $4,300

A very plausible move.

Gold rose more than 7% just last week.

Therefore,

“uptrend = rising every day”

is not guaranteed.

If price is capped around $4,370 and then pulls back toward $4,300, it’s natural to re-evaluate the direction afterward.

In this case as well,as long as $4,300 is maintained, we cannot conclude a downtrend has begun.

③ Clearly break $4,300

Here, I will shift my view slightly.

If it breaks $4,300 and cannot rebound back,

$4,250–$4,230

becomes a zone to be cautious of.

In particular,

• Dollar index rebounds

• U.S. 10-year yields rise

• Gold falls below $4,300

If these occur together, fund flows in the opposite direction from Friday’s could be possible.

Tomorrow, watch the dollar and interest rates more than economic data

On August 10, there are some US auctions (3-month and 6-month Treasuries), but no major indicators like CPI or payrolls are scheduled.

Therefore, rather than focusing on indicators themselves, it may be more important tomorrow to watch:

① Dollar index
② U.S. 10-year yield
③ $4,300
④ $4,370–$4,400

as a set of four to verify.

Additionally, one of the biggest catalysts this week is the U.S. CPI on August 12. It is important to consider that the market may adjust positions at high levels ahead of CPI rather than moving in one direction from Monday.

Also pay attention to Middle East tensions

Another factor not to ignore is Middle East tensions.

As of August 9, reported negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are in a “final stage,” but additional conditions from the U.S. side remain for reopening the strait.

In such a situation, the simplistic view of “peace equals gold falls” is not advisable.

Easing tensions may reduce safe-haven demand, while a drop in crude oil prices could lower inflation expectations and U.S. rates, which could in turn support gold.

Therefore, rather than the news itself,it is more important to observe how the dollar and U.S. interest rates respond to the news.

Summary for August 10

The current short-term structure remains upward.

However, since there was a sharp rise on Friday, tomorrow is not about deciding to buy or sell from the start, but about verifying

whether $4,300 can hold.
whether $4,370–$4,400 can be broken.

In this moment, I want to judge after confirming these two points.

What I am paying particular attention to is

above $4,300
→ Upward structure maintained

breakthrough $4,370
→ Possibility of resuming the uptrend

below $4,300
→ Caution for a pullback to $4,250–$4,230

These are the three stages.

From last week’s price action alone, buying has been strong, but precisely because of the rapid rise, rather than chasing price,I would like to view the market starting from “which price to defend.”

※This article aims to organize the market environment and does not advocate any specific trading actions. Market conditions can change rapidly.