[Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Scenario Environment Awareness and Memo_20260809]

【Dream Trajectory_FX_Main Currencies_Rate Environment Awareness and Memo_20260809】


August 9 is Sunday.

Hello.

It's humid like a steamy bath in the South Kanto area.
A cloudy sky and 34°C is tough, isn't it?

As it cools down, it might become a target for mosquitoes, so
I think I’ll start garden cleaning soon.

Now, with USD/JPY
If I wanted to push it below 155,
it seemed possible, but
there was no intervention, and the market may trigger future fear.

Even without doing anything, it seems to be biased higher,
and the effect of intervention that stops the rise may be at play.

Next, expectations are likely for a rate hike at the Bank of Japan meeting.



Now, let’s confirm.
The numbers are based on the daily chart's closing timing.


【EUR/USD】

Monthly bars: 20th / 13
Weekly bars: 3rd cycle, 22nd / 6LT
Weekly volatility: 80 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 33rd / 33
4HC 3rd cycle: 51st / 49

This is how I view it.

A bearish candle may be expected soon, but
the point is when it will start to decline.

If the FOMC raises rates,
it may have already been priced in and a decline could begin?

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20260809_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/p3GavuEv4PE
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 24th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 28th / 26 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 14th / 12
Weekly volatility: 336 pips
HPC 2nd or HPC 1st: 68th / 57 or
Daily: 1st cycle, 5th
4HC 5th or 1st: 30th / 25

This is how I view it.

Prioritizing the daily 1st cycle.
The possibility that the rise is being checked by intervention
seems to be the effect as well.

A slow, gradual rise is the image.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 20th / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 19th / 5LT
Weekly volatility: 91 pips
HPC 2nd cycle: 33rd / 16
4HC 3rd cycle: 51st / 49

This is how I view it.

Since the weekly starting point has broken down,
I expect bearish candles soon.

Last week the weekly volatility was small,
which looks like a feature during rising periods.


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 25th / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 26th / 10LT
Weekly volatility: 332 pips
HPC 2: 68th / 60 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 33rd / 26LT or
Daily: 1st cycle, 5th / 5
4HC 1st cycle: 30th / 28

This is how I view it.

As with USD/JPY, I strongly believe HPC has ended.


If USD/JPY stalls
and EUR/USD declines,
EUR/JPY will draw a bearish candle.

Which way will it go?


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 25th / 24
Weekly: 4th cycle, 25th / 22
Weekly volatility: 374 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 36th / 19 or
Daily: 1st cycle, 5th
4HC 3rd or 1st: 30th / 23

This is how I view it.

If the daily 3rd cycle, it will be bearish.
If the daily 1st cycle, it would be bullish.

I mainly consider the daily 1st cycle.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 17th / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 25th / 16
Weekly volatility: 229 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 5th / 5
4HC 1st cycle: 30th / 30

This is how I view it.

Where AUD/USD will rise to is the key point to watch.


If risk-on lifts stock prices,
AUD/USD will rise.

If USD/JPY is likely to edge higher,
AUD/JPY will stay biased higher.

If the daily 1st cycle, the outlook is to look up,
but
the shortening of 4HC will have a significant impact
on Oceania pairs, so
we should watch the charts carefully.

*****************************
20260809_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/p3GavuEv4PE
*****************************

  
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DXY 99.604 -0.36%
US10Y 4.649 -0.58%
DJI 54042 points +0.28
US500 +0.63%
WTI 77.463 USD
BRN 83.55 USD
Nikkei 225 65606 yen -76
　
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Let’s learn together.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872


 
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