[Day 15 +68.0%] Cumulative profit +680,000 yen | PF 1.77・Win rate 56.5% ongoing operation
Performance of the semi-discretionary EA "Byakko".
Since the operation startedon the 15th dayhas passed.
Current results are as follows.
■ 15th day performance
・Balance：1,680,027 JPY
・Cumulative profit：+680,027 JPY
・Cumulative profit rate：+68.0%
・Average profit：+45,335 JPY/day
・Win rate：56.5%
・PF：1.77
・Total trades：46 trades
In 15 days, from a principal of 1,000,000 to1,680,000 JPY.
Cumulative profit has surpassed +680,000 JPY.
What I want to highlight this time is not only the profit amount, butthe fact that with a win rate of 56.5% and PF of 1.77, profits have grown to this extent.
Since Byakko is based on RR 1:1, once the win rate reliably exceeds 50%, it becomes easier to accumulate profits.
This week's trading history
Win rate and PF are both 1.77
When looking at EA results, one tends to focus on win rate, but personallyPF (Profit Factor) is also important.
This time's results are
Win rate 56.5%
PF 1.77
Cumulative +68.0%
.
Although this is a short-term result with 46 trades, we are currently able to continue operating while increasing profits.
Of course, this does not guarantee a straight-line increase going forward.
Because Byakko is an EA that compounds profits by winning and losing, there will naturally be periods of streak losses or times when profits shrink.
That is why we will continue to disclose not only good results but also drawdown periods.
Deciding "attack" and "defense" by considering the probability of losing streaks
Even if the win rate drops to 50%, streaks of losses will happen normally.
Assuming a win rate of 50% (loss probability 50%) and that each trade is independent, the probability of consecutive losses from a certain point is
2 consecutive losses: 25.0%
3 consecutive losses: 12.5%
4 consecutive losses: 6.25%
5 consecutive losses: 3.13%
6 consecutive losses: 1.56%
become possible.
In other words,it is quite possible to experience 2–4 consecutive losses, and this should be anticipated.
And in Byakko, you can structure the trading method while considering these "probabilities of consecutive losses."
For example, if you want to emphasize defense,you would operate with an initial lot size and capital that can withstand 6, 7, or 8 consecutive losses.
This way, even if 3 or 4 consecutive losses occur mid-way, you can continue trading within the range you anticipated from the start.
On the other hand, if you want to take more aggressive steps, the approach changes.
For instance, you might increase the initial lot to prioritize faster profit recovery with the mindset of not accepting large losses until you recover the principal (100%).
Of course, this does not mean that 5–6 consecutive losses will not occur.
They could occur. Therefore, decide how much profit to recover and act accordingly before they happen.
Then, once profits accumulate sufficiently, reduce the lot size or revert to the initial lot after 3–4 losses, gradually shifting toward defense.
This is also one of Byakko's operational approaches.
In short,
instead of looking for an "unloseable" setting, decide how much risk to take by watching the streak probability and your own margin.
If you want to defenduse funds and lots that can withstand 6 lossesand operate accordingly.
If you aim to recover the principal quickly,take a certain level of risk to prioritize profit recovery, and then reduce risk after recovery.
Byakko can adjust parameters, which is part of what makes its operation interesting to me, enabling you to think and operate with a mix of "attack periods" and "defense periods."
※ The probability of consecutive losses is a simple calculation assuming each trade is independent and win rate is fixed at 50%. Also, the probability of losing six times in a row at any point differs from the probability of six losses in a row across 46 trades.
+68,000 JPY in 15 days; what next?
Currently,
1,000,000 → 1,680,027 JPY
On the 15th day of operation, +680,027 JPY (+68.0%).
On average+45,335 JPY per day.
However, this “average per day” does not mean it will be stable every day.
There are winning days and losing days, and that is why this number is as it is now.
Rather than judging solely by short-term results,I want to continue tracking how PF and win rate evolve over the next 50, 100 trades and beyond.
I will keep monitoring this.
Currently, Byakko islive-operating in real time.
You can check actual entries, streaks, and profit fluctuations that numbers alone cannot convey.
We will continue to publish operation results regularly.
I finally learned how to archive them, so I expect to be able to preserve them from next week onward.
Current operation results
Operating: 15 days
Cumulative profit: +680,027 JPY
Profit rate: +68.0%
Win rate: 56.5%
PF: 1.77
Trades: 46
※ The results published are performance during a specific period and do not guarantee future profits. Results vary with market conditions, settings, trading environment, etc.