MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug.10 2026

1. Review

Last week, the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 65,606, up 1,244 points from the previous week. The week's low was 62,703 on Monday the 3rd. The week's high was 66,302 on Wednesday the 5th. The week's range moved between the weekly downside support line and the weekly upside resistance line, so it was neutral. However, this closing price exceeded the weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the fifth consecutive week, indicating that the overall trend has shifted from “downward trend” back to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

As previously stated, in “Forecast 2026” the long-term market cycle for the Nikkei Stock Average has been adjusted from 17 years to 19 years. However, the starting point of October 28, 2008, at 6,994 remains unchanged. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottomed, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be a focus in 2026. That said, there is no change in the view that the current market is composed of a four-year cycle, and the future course of the long-term market cycle will still be influenced by the near-term PC movements (usually 12–20 weeks). And at present, from the perspective of the long-term cycle, the very important lows are August 5, 2024 at 31,156 and April 7, 2025 at 30,792. These two lows were bottom PCs of 16 weeks and 19 weeks, respectively, with the 37,801 level on November 28, 2024 between them.

For the continuation, please refer to the PDF file.

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