2026/08/07 Pound-Yen Yuri market analysis?

This is the four-hour chart of the GBP/JPY pair.

The four-hour Elliott Wave is currently the fourth wave of a downtrend Elliott Wave.

The four-hour cyclered lineoriginates from the starting point, and we are currently viewing it with 26 scenarios.

The major cyclered lineat the low price is the 33rd low, which is not yet at bottom time, so the major cycle is currently viewed as continuing with 37 cycles.

Therefore, this four-hour cycle forms a left-transposition.

From the fact that the next move will be a decline in the fifth wave of the four-hour chart, there is a high likelihood that this four-hour cycle will form a left-transposition.

The four-hour Elliott Wave is currently in the fourth wave, and the fourth wave of the four-hour chart is formed by waves a–c of the one-hour chart, so the one-hour Elliott Wave can count up to wave c.

Since this four-hour cycle is forming a left-transposition and has already entered the ceiling time, and since the one-hour chart can count up to wave c,green linethe high may also be the four-hour cycle top.

However, wave c may still extend, and today there is an employment report, so there is a strong possibility of a rise beyond the green line.green linebeyond which, always be mindful of the four-hour cycle top in your market view.

With the major cycle currently at 37 cycles and entering bottom time, and given that the current four-hour cycle bottom is likely to be the low of the fifth wave, the four-hour cycle bottom is likely to become the major cycle bottom.

Therefore, within this four-hour cyclered lineis expected to break downward to form the four-hour cycle bottom and the major cycle bottom.

The primary cycle is currently at 25 cycles and has entered bottom time.

The weekly Elliott Wave is currently the first wave of a downtrend; normally the weekly Wave 1 corresponds to daily Waves 1–5, but because this time the large decline was due to FX intervention, the four-hour Wave 1–5 coincide with the daily Wave 1–5, so we regard this as equal, and count that the low of the five waves on the four-hour chart corresponds to the low of the weekly Wave 1.

Thus, the low of the current four-hour Wave 5 is also the low of the daily Wave 5.

With this counting method, the primary cycle is also at bottom time, so the four-hour cycle bottom is expected to be the primary cycle bottom.

Therefore, in the next primary-cycle rally, there is a strong possibility of forming the weekly Wave 2; since weekly Wave 2 is formed by daily Waves a–c, the next four-hour cycle and major cycle may form a right-transposition.

Since daily Wave a is formed by four-hour Waves 1–5, the next four-hour Elliott Wave is highly likely to be an uptrend, forming a right-transposition for the four-hour cycle.

From the above circumstances, until this four-hour cycle forms a bottom, we remain bearish; but once this four-hour cycle bottoms, the major cycle and primary cycle are expected to start, so we will view the market with a short-term buy bias and a mid- to long-term sell bias.

As a trading strategy, we aim for a short entry near the top of this four-hour cycle.

The stop-loss for the short position at entry should currently be abovegreen line.

Green lineIf a short entry occurs after surpassing it, treat it as a breakout above the four-hour cycle top.

The short position entered near the four-hour cycle top should be squared off around the four-hour cycle bottom and reversed accordingly.

From the four-hour cycle bottom, we will once again look for a long entry.

The stop-loss for the long position should be set below the low that we consider as the four-hour cycle bottom.