The indicator only has two possibilities: to change the trend or to create it
Those who Bet on Indicator Releases are Not Traders, but Gamblers
What you’re betting on in that instant isn’t trading; you’re just throwing a coin.
When U.S. employment data, the Consumer Price Index, and policy rate announcements—the moment these key indicators are released—gold moves violently. In a few seconds, tens of pips can be gained, and sometimes even 100 pips or more. Some people dive in with the belief that this is a chance to make a quick profit.
Let me be clear. Betting on the moment of the indicator release is not trading. It’s gambling.What you’re wagering on is not analysis or evidence, but pure luck.
This time, I will explain why betting during indicator releases is dangerous, and how gold traders should relate to indicators.
The moment of an indicator release cannot be read by anyone
The main reason betting during indicator releases is dangerous is,the price movement immediately after the release cannot be predicted by anyone.
“If the numbers are good, it goes up; if they’re bad, it goes down”—that’s not always true. Compared with market expectations, how the numbers are perceived, and other factors, the direction of movement is determined. Sometimes good numbers lead to a decline, and bad numbers lead to a rise. Even professionals cannot read the direction right after the release.
Moreover, right after the release, prices swing up and down violently. One moment they leap upward, the next instant they plummet, then recover again—this extreme volatility occurs. Entering during this is like jumping into a raging ocean without knowing the direction. There is no room for analysis to influence the decision.
“Accidents” that occur at indicator releases
At the moment of an indicator release, accidents that normally do not occur become more likely. These cannot be prevented by your analysis or technique.
・Spreads widen rapidly (costs jump)
・Slippage occurs (difference between order price and execution price)
・Prices spike, causing stop losses to be filled at deeper levels than anticipated
・During a brief high/low swing, both stop loss and take profit levels can be hit
These cannot be prevented by technique. They are problems inherent to the release environment itself.
What is especially frightening is,the stop-loss may fail to function. When prices jump, they can leap beyond the set stop price and execute much lower. “I had set a 20-pip stop loss, but in reality I lost 50 pips.” This can happen during indicator releases. The basis for risk management collapses.