MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug.3 2026

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei Stock Average closed down 249 points from the previous week, at 64,362. The week’s low was 60,448 on Wednesday the 29th. The week’s high was 65,364 on Friday the 31st. The week’s low fell below the weekly downside support line but rebounded. Since the closing price closed above, it was a bullish trigger. However, this closing price has undercut the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for four consecutive weeks. Therefore the overall trend has been downgraded from “neutral” to “downtrend.”

2. Cycles

As has been stated before, in “Forecast 2026” we changed the long-term market cycle duration for the Nikkei Stock Average from 17 years to 19 years. However, the starting point remains October 28, 2008, at 6,994. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottoms, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be the focus in 2026.

That said, there is no change to the view that the current market is composed of a four-year cycle, and the future development of the long-term market cycle will still be driven by the recent PC (usually 12–20 weeks) movements.

Please see the PDF file for the continuation.

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