The "Three Clocks" that began moving after the approval rating's sudden drop — was the yen's sharp surge on the eve of the Bank of Japan meeting a coincidence?
Today's Focus
Was the sharp yen rise on the eve of the Bank of Japan meeting the first move in a genuine yen depreciation defense? Or does the government still underestimate the market?
To explain this move solely by the dollar-yen dropping toward around 160, the timing seems too coincidental.
By overlaying three clocks—the public opinion poll results, the Finance Ministry’s release schedule, and the Bank of Japan meeting—the items to be confirmed in the today’s statement and the governor’s press conference shift.
Confirmed Facts
Plunge in support rate; Finance Ministry release schedule; Bank of Japan meeting
Market Reading
Resumption of yen selling as a test for authorities
Questions to verify in the article
Are the three clocks a coincidence
Yesterday's sudden change occurred after the Finance Ministry's monthly closing and before the BOJ meeting results the following day. Furthermore, the political environment surrounding the government and market evaluations of spring interventions have also changed. In this article, two hypotheses will be laid out from this overlap, and we will verify which remains after the BOJ meeting.
What this article will examine
- The government's stance that began with a sharp fall in support
- The overlap of intervention disclosure and the BOJ meeting—the “three clocks”
- Two hypotheses: genuine defense vs. market neglect
- After the BOJ meeting and the semiconductor market’s response
This is the first stage to make past articles easier to find. Going forward, we will cultivate a place where ongoing themes and shifts in perspective, difficult to cover with daily articles alone, can be verified.