Triple Decline After FOMC — Semiconductors Unable to Rebound Despite Good Earnings and Damaged Positions
Today’s View
Even after the FOMC and AI earnings results, the market has not moved in a single direction. Positive news gets bought back, while losses or cashing-out sales appear elsewhere. Today we will assess not only the material’s quality but also whether its reaction carries through to the next markets for stocks and currencies.
Key Points This Time
FOMC
With the decision to hold despite three rate-hike votes, the market answered with a triple decline in stocks, long-term bonds, and the dollar.
With the decision to hold despite three rate-hike votes, the market answered with a triple decline in stocks, long-term bonds, and the dollar.
AI & Semiconductors
Look at strong actual demand while separating profitability, investment burden, and damaged positions.
Look at strong actual demand while separating profitability, investment burden, and damaged positions.
Market Reaction
We’ll see whether reactions extend beyond the Nikkei to the TOPIX, U.S. 2-year yields, and EUR/USD.
We’ll see whether reactions extend beyond the Nikkei to the TOPIX, U.S. 2-year yields, and EUR/USD.
One-Point Commentary — When Good Earnings Still Lead to Stock Sell-Off
In past articles, Microsoft’s concerns about investment burden were offset by demand supporting the Nikkei average with Applied Materials benefiting. This time, in addition to company-specific differences, we will consider which positions are hurt by a sharp drop and where buying back or cashing out occurred.
In past articles, Microsoft’s concerns about investment burden were offset by demand supporting the Nikkei average with Applied Materials benefiting. This time, in addition to company-specific differences, we will consider which positions are hurt by a sharp drop and where buying back or cashing out occurred.
Main Stocks Covered in the Paid Section
Major Charts: KOSPI, Nikkei Average, TOPIX, NASDAQ, SOX, EUR/USD, U.S. 2Y/10Y/30Y Treasuries, CME FedWatch
Earnings & Supply-Demand Support: Applied Materials, Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Toyota, MUFG
Major Charts: KOSPI, Nikkei Average, TOPIX, NASDAQ, SOX, EUR/USD, U.S. 2Y/10Y/30Y Treasuries, CME FedWatch
Earnings & Supply-Demand Support: Applied Materials, Microsoft, Meta, Samsung, Toyota, MUFG
About This Article
01. What Changed from the Day Before
02. FOMC and Rate-Hike Expectations
03. AI & Semiconductor Earnings
04. Reasons Why the Direction Cannot Be Decided
05. Checking Stocks and FX
06. Conditions for Changing View
07. Summary
01. What Changed from the Day Before
02. FOMC and Rate-Hike Expectations
03. AI & Semiconductor Earnings
04. Reasons Why the Direction Cannot Be Decided
05. Checking Stocks and FX
06. Conditions for Changing View
07. Summary
From here on, we will test paths where material reactions and position reactions swap places