FOMC決定を据置に。会見後、市場は三つの要因で反応。

【7/29Market Overview

Tokyo time, the USD/JPY moved lower with the AUD/JPY weakness, and risk-off buying of the yen increased as Asian stocks, led by the Nikkei, traded Softly, sending the pair down to163.27yen. Afterward, a rebound led to gains163.70yen. In European hours, due to concerns about military clashes between the United States and Iran, crude oil futures rose sharply, and “flight-to-squality dollar buying” led the USD/JPY higher to163.90yen.NYtime,FOMCannouncedFFrate’s target range at9to3with a vote of3.50－3.75%. The decision was to keep it unchanged. Those in opposition to the hold were three officials—Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Logan (Dallas)—who argued for a 0.25 percentage point hike. The statement noted that, although uncertainties from Middle East tensions and other geopolitical factors have intensified, economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, and inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal. It added that the rise in prices reflects supply shocks that have affected some sectors, including energy, and emphasized that the Committee is committed to achieving price stability.

Additionally, WheelPowellChairFOMCmeeting noted that the discussions were cooperative and constructive, that the economy shows remarkable resilience, and that we will strive for price stability; going forward, we will monitor inflation-related data closely. In his own words, now is the time to proceed cautiously and evaluate carefully.PowellThe market interpreted his remarks as somewhat dovish, increasing uncertainty around the Fed’s monetary policy, leading to a selloff in U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY fell to163.22yen.

【7/30Market Outlook