Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [July 28]

Today (July 29, 2026) the major crypto assets (cryptocurrencies) have shown a slight overall gain, with a gradual recovery trend. The total market capitalization of the crypto asset market is around 2.28Fear & Greed Index, which reflects market investor sentiment, sits around the “Fear” zone at about 29, indicating that while the market is recovering, investor caution remains firmly in place.

■ Today's price movements of major currencies (estimates, UTC basis, average from multiple sources)

· Bitcoin (BTC):64,30064,400+0.751.5%62,80063,30064,000

Bitcoin daily chart

· Ethereum (ETH):1,9101,920+12%

Ethereum daily chart

■ Other major coins (top market cap altcoins)

· XRP:1.081.09+1+3%

· BNB:570+1%

· Solana (SOL):74+0.4+1%

The altcoin market as a whole shows a mixed performance by coin, with many top-performing coins showing gains while others remain weak with limited upside.

■ Main market-moving news and factors

The current market focus is on the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) interest rate decision (the meeting on July 28–29; results to be announced today).

Meanwhile, easing tensions between the United States and Iran (a pause in conflict and oil price decline) provided a supportive factor for risk assets like equities and crypto. Additionally, delays in progress on the Clarity Act (regulatory clarity) and the movement of the South Korean stock market have occasionally triggered temporary selling pressure.

■ Price trends since last week (clear explanation)

Last week (from around July 22) the market gave a strong impression of “after-peak price recovery, followed by correction and a rangebound phase.”

· Bitcoin (BTC) trend: 65,80066,00066,00066,70062,40063,00064,000-2-3%58,00065,00066,000

· Ethereum (ETH) trend: 1,950+18+20%

· Overall market trend: From late June into early July, a recovery from the low turned into a risk-on stance as geopolitical risk eased. However, ahead of the FOMC, investors began profit-taking and waiting, keeping prices within a range. Altcoins like SOL and XRP exhibit larger price swings than BTC or ETH, with weekly declines of around -4% to -5% seen in some coins. Institutions' demand for spot ETFs helps provide a floor, while macro factors like interest rates and inflation continue to influence the market.

In summary, the current market is a “macro-event wait-and-see correction during a long-term upward trend” phase. After the FOMC announcement, a clearer direction is likely to emerge.

■ US spot ETF fund flows (past roughly one week)

Looking at the inflows into spot crypto ETFs approved in the US, Ethereum shows relatively steadier gains than Bitcoin.

· Bitcoin spot ETF movement:

The week of July 20–24 saw net inflows of about +33.84.65

Afterward, on July 27 there was net outflow of about -11.6

Banking outflows in June and partial recovery in July show signs of fading by week’s end.

· Ethereum spot ETF movement:

The same week (July 20–24) had net inflows of about +103.9

More recently, inflows have continued on a small but steady basis (e.g. around +90 million to +100 million dollars on July 27–28). Compared with Bitcoin, Ethereum-related products see much more stable demand from institutions.

In sum, the ETF market is not a blanket sell-off; selective demand endures. Bitcoin ETFs show wide swings, while Ethereum ETFs maintain relatively stable inflows. The price flows may shift further after the FOMC outcome and future policy announcements.

※ The data shown are estimates based on multiple market data and news sources and are subject to real-time fluctuation. When making actual investment decisions, please verify the latest market information yourself.

■ Other market topics and news

· SpaceX’s (SpaceX) market value falls below $110, causing its IPO price of $135 to look distant.

· Analysis by Mr. Oishi (@bigstonebtc) on Japan’s economy and monetary policy:

Japan’s government envisions a scenario where inflation is around 3.5% annually for 20 years and government debt (debt) is halved.

If interest rates can be contained to about 2%, financial repression (keeping real interest rates negative) could effectively siphon wealth from citizens’ assets. The government seems to believe this method could allow both the public and the yen to endure.

However, it should be noted that currency value does not gradually drop once it crosses a threshold, but can abruptly crash at any day.

※Mr. Oishi’s remarks are not official government views, but his own interpretation and analysis of policy.Year3.5% inflation sustained for 20 years would cause prices to roughly double. In this scenario, creating an environment where “inflation > interest rate” keeps rates low and gradually reduces the real value of deposits and government bonds, thereby significantly reducing government debt burden. This approach aims to extract wealth from citizens’ assets via inflation and low interest rates, rather than through direct taxation.

■ Bitcoin (BTC) related news

· Tesla announced its Q2 2026 results!

The company stated it would continue to hold its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, totaling about 820,500· Japan’s upcoming Bitcoin ETF (spot listing) possibly launching as early as 2028!

The Financial Services Agency is preparing to revise investment fund rules, with regulatory changes to include crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Major asset managers are evaluating entry, and up to trillions of yen could flow in by the 2028 fiscal year. If approved in Japan after the US, this could accelerate regulatory relaxation and market capture in Asia’s crypto market.

· Grayscale’s view: “BTC bear market could continue for 9–10 months.”

Traditionally, a 4-year cycle (halving cycle) shows price bottoming about a year after past peaks, with an average decline of around 80%. However, the company notes, “If US economic performance remains resilient and the Fed does not raise rates further, the market may have already bottomed.”

· Cambridge University findings: Bitcoin mining energy consumption reaches 190 TWh, up 38% year over year.

While energy consumption has risen, there is positive news: the share of low-carbon energy used in mining has jumped from 52.4% to 59.4%. Notably, hydroelectric power has surpassed natural gas as the largest energy source for mining, countering long-standing criticisms of high environmental impact and energy waste.

· Strategy (Strategy) announces zero BTC追加 purchases this week.

The company sold $548.45 million worth of its own stock (MSTR), expanding cash reserves. Its BTC holdings remain at 843,775 BTC, with an aggregate cost basis of $63.69 billion and an average cost per BTC of $75,476.

· Arthur Hayes commentary: “Why isn’t Bitcoin rising despite massive money printing?” (Interview archive)

June 26, 2026, Arthur Hayes gave an interview with Bonnie Blockchain. He explained that the reason for Bitcoin’s stagnation is large-scale capital expenditure in the AI field absorbing market liquidity. Investors are channeling funds into AI-related tech stocks and their supply chains, and new wealth from the AI boom is prioritizing physical assets or diversified NASDAQ holdings over crypto investments.

There is a possibility that taxation rules for exchanging crypto assets (swaps) could be revisited in the future.

In a ruling on a case challenging the illegality of taxing currency exchanges, three Supreme Court justices indicated a desire to reevaluate the taxation rules on exchanges. In Japan, where there is no clear specific law yet taxation is often based on administrative interpretation, this could push for reform.

G7 countries’ tax treatment of crypto assets is strict in Japan; the Supreme Court’s input may accelerate regulatory changes.

· Strategy: establishing the Bitcoin Security Consortium with BlackRock, Coinbase, ARK Invest, and other industry giants. Eight major firms will participate and invest $150 million over three years to support developers. The consortium’s top priority is crypto resilience and security against the advent of quantum computing. As signs of crypto market recovery appear, infrastructure supporting the blockchain core is also being strengthened.

■ Ethereum (ETH) related news

· Discussion on “Why buy Ethereum now” (all-E suis’ perspective)

@nook_ethereum

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