Financial Instruments Business Operator Kanto Finance Bureau Director (Kinsho) No. 1960 / Membership Association Japan Investment Advisers Association Membership No. 012-02323 Go to GogoJungle Home
icon List
カタナ
07/28/2026 17:21
Release： 07/28/2026 17:21
Update： 07/28/2026 17:21
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
Article cover image

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory: Four-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-07-29

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: 2026-07-29 06:01 JST / Night Session

Current Value: 62,420 JPY

Target: For intraday session (Wed, 7/29)

Conclusion

In summary, a sharp drop occurred on 7/28 intraday, briefly breaking 63,370 and 62,780 in succession, after which the night session consolidated in a range of 61,900–62,960 and closed at 62,420. The 4H is in a downtrend with a downward wave, the 1H is in a downtrend but the wave is turning upward, and the 15m is in a range/downward wave. The overall downtrend remains intact while the short term is undergoing a price range adjustment. Throughout Wednesday, the focus is on where the close exits the range, prioritizing selling into rallies.

If the price stalls its rebound between 62,700–62,960, consider it a rally-fade to go short; if the 15m close breaks 61,900, expect a lower-range breakout aiming for 61,370–60,840. If 62,960 recovers on the 15m close, it would be a range breakout and a potential long entry to ride the rebound, with a recovery toward 63,370 (old low turning into resistance). A recovery to 64,130 (4H turning price) on a close would mark the completion of the lower 4H downward wave. Since false breakouts are more likely right after a new low, avoid premature entries within the range and protect positions early.

4H Analysis

The 4H remains in a downtrend and a downward wave. After reversing from 67,670 and breaking below 64,310 (pullback low), price fell to 63,370 and 62,780 (7/17 low) in succession on 7/28, reaching a new low of 61,900. The turning price is 64,130, and only a close above this level would consider ending the downward wave. The 20EMA is downward; price sits below it. The 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent) and 200EMA are well above, leaving substantial resistance overhead.

Key resistance levels: 62,700–62,960 (15m turning price–range upper bound), 63,370 (old low—turned to resistance), 63,900, 64,130 (4H turning price), 65,330 (1H retracement high). Support lower: 61,900 (night low–range bottom). If broken on a close, the next targets lower are 61,370 and 60,840. The overall trend remains downward, and rebounds are likely to be sold.


1H Analysis

The 1H maintains a downtrend, with the wave turning upward. After making new lows at 62,010 and 61,900, price rebounded to 62,960 and closed at 62,420. The turning price is 61,900; a close below this would revert to a downward wave. All major moving averages (20EMA, 80EMA—the 4H 20EMA equivalent, and 480EMA—the daily 20EMA equivalent) are trending downward, with price just below the 62,770 vicinity of the 20EMA.

If 62,700 is reclaimed on a 1H close, the rebound may extend, and a true reversal toward 63,370 could be considered. Conversely, a close below 61,900 on the 1H would resume the downtrend. Resistance zones: 62,700–62,960 and 63,370–64,130; as long as the 20EMA remains downward and price stays below it, the rebound-selling bias remains in effect.

15m Analysis

The 15m chart shows a range and downward wave. Turning price and rebound high are both 62,700, with demand (low) at 61,900. Price has pulled back from 61,900 to 62,960, then retraced to 62,700 and closed at 62,420, forming a 61,900–62,960 range. The 20EMA around 62,500 is negatively sloped and price sits below it; the 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent) and 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) are above price.

Near term, 62,700 is the initial upside turning point with a range top at 62,960; a close above 62,960 would signal a breakout of the range, while a stall near 62,700–62,960 would be a setup for a rally-fade. A close below 61,900 would indicate a range breakout to the downside, resuming downward movement. Avoid premature entries inside the range; wait for confirmation at the upper or lower bound.

MTF State

  • 4H: Down / Downward wave. Price broke below 62,780 to 61,900, with a -0.16% bearish candle at 62,420. Turning price 64,130; pullback low 64,310 (X); rebound high 67,670. 20EMA is downward; price sits below it.
  • 1H: Down / Upward wave. Rebound from 61,900 to 62,960. Turning price 61,900; pullback low 64,280 (X); rebound high 65,330. All moving averages downward; price just below the 20EMA.
  • 15m: Range / Downward wave. Range 61,900–62,960 with close at 62,420. Turning price 62,700; pullback low 61,900; rebound high 62,700. 20EMA negative slope.
  • Consistency: 4H down/downward wave, 1H downtrend but rising wave, 15m range/downward wave. Higher timeframes remain bearish while short-term shows a rebound. The base strategy is to prioritize selling into rallies and following breaks on higher timeframes; buying on dips or chasing breaks should be limited to rallies from the range bottom or after a breakout above the range.

Key Prices

  • 67,670 JPY: 4H retracement high. The ceiling for upside.
  • 65,330 JPY: 1H retracement high. This is the first target in the upmove (T2).
  • 64,310 JPY: 4H pullback low (broken) — resistance turned.
  • 64,130 JPY: 4H turning price. A close above this ends the 4H downward wave. Upper limit of Rally Zone 2 and the first turning price (T2).
  • 63,900 JPY: Break of the 1H lower support; turned into resistance. First target (T1).
  • 63,370 JPY: Old July 28 low (broken) turned into resistance. Lower bound of Rally Zone 2.
  • 62,960 JPY: July 29 night high / Range upper bound. Trigger for Rally Zone 1.
  • 62,780 JPY: July 17 low (broken) turned into resistance.
  • 62,700 JPY: 15m turning price & rebound high. Lower bound of Rally Zone 1; part of target formation.
  • 62,620 JPY: Turning point within range. Rally Zone 2 lower bound (T1).
  • 62,420 JPY: Current price / Night close.
  • 62,150 JPY: Lower bound within range; upper boundary for dip-buy Zone 1.
  • 62,080 JPY: Lower boundary within range; lower edge of dip-buy Zone 1.
  • 62,010 JPY: Level just above the lower range bound; third turning point (T1).
  • 61,900 JPY: 15m pullback low, 1H turning price, night low of 7/29. If the range is breached, anticipate a downward breakout; trigger.
  • 61,370 JPY: Mid-point of the range translated downwards; T1.
  • 60,840 JPY: Full range width projected downward; T2.

Trading Ideas

① Breakout-following (Long)

  • Trigger: 62,960 (7/29 night high and range top) recovered on a 15m close (range breakout). Short-term contrarian against the downtrend on 4H and 1H—ride the rebound.
  • Front run: after rebound, price near breakout level or near a tilted 20MA on a short time frame (1m/5m) to anticipate entry (back-entry, breakout price basis).
  • Proof of pullback: recover to 63,370 (old low turning into resistance) on a 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: break-even of front-run if below 62,660; main position breaks 62,700. If fully exited, 62,010 break-even.
  • Targets: 63,900 (partial take + at break-even), 64,130 / 65,330.
  • Reward-Risk: T1 (63,900) = 3.1; T2 (64,130) = 3.9.
  • MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; as this is a rebound in a downward higher timeframe, tighten protection early.

② Buy the dip (Long)

  • Standard: push down to 62,080–62,150 (range lower bound) and confirm rebound shape with 15m close. Deeper drawdown is 61,900–62,010 (range bottom/night low).
  • Pullback proof: recover to 62,700 (15m turning price / rebound high) on a 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: front-run below 61,850; main position below 62,010. Both placed under the range lower bound 61,900 for mechanical exit on a break.
  • Targets: 62,620 (partial take + cost basis), 62,960 / 63,370.
  • Reward-Risk: T1 (62,620) = 1.6; T2 (62,960) = 2.7.
  • MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; given the main trend is breakout-followed but waiting for range pullback, protect promptly. If T1 already reached on confirmation, skip.

③ Sell the rally (Short)

  • Standard: 62,700–62,960 (15m turning price/rebound high–range upper bound) to cap upside; confirm stall with 15m close. Zone 2: 63,370–64,130 (old low turned resistance–4H turning price).
  • Proof of pullback: break 61,900 (range lower bound / 1H turning price) on a 1H close = range breakdown. At this point front-run has reached T1; take partial profit and move cost basis up, then add main lot.
  • Stop/Invalidation: front-run recovers to 63,100 (zone 2 entry) or 64,230 if entering from zone 2; main position recovers to 62,700. Fully exit at 64,130 (4H turning price recovery).
  • Targets: 62,010 (partial take + cost basis), 61,370 / 60,840.
  • Reward-Risk: T1 (62,010) = 2.6; T2 (61,370) = 4.8.
  • MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; since this is a pure breakout approach but waiting for range pullbacks, guard as targets are set. If T1 has already been reached on the confirmed trigger, skip.

④ Breakout-following (Short)

  • Trigger: break 61,900 (range lower bound, 15m support low, 1H turning price) on a 15m close (range breakdown and resumption of downtrend).
  • Front run: after the break, pullback near breakout price or tilted 20MA using 1m/5m charts to anticipate entry (back-entry, breakout price basis).
  • Proof of pullback: break the same 61,900 on a 1H close (two-stage confirmation from 15m front-run to 1H confirmed).
  • Stop/Invalidation: front-run recovers to 62,250; main position recovers to 62,420. Fully exit at 62,700 (range re-entry).
  • Targets: 61,370 (partial take + cost basis), 60,840.
  • Reward-Risk: T1 (61,370) = 1.5; T2 (60,840) = 3.0. Since T1 is not thick, emphasize back-entry.
  • MFE Protection: exit at +200 or +300 for trailing; since this is a trend-following approach but range-based rebound waiting, protect as targets are formed. If T1 is already reached on the confirmed trigger, skip.

Current Actions

  • Most Important Line 1: 61,900 JPY. Range lower bound, 1H turning price, night low. If broken on a 15m close, target 61,370–60,840 as the range breaks lower. As long as this is held, range-bound consolidation continues.
  • Most Important Line 2: 62,700–62,960 JPY. 15m turning price–range upper bound. A stall in this band supports a trend-following rebound; a close above 62,960 implies a range breakout and a long continuation toward 63,370→63,900. Until 64,130 (4H turning) recovers, the overall trend remains downward.

Entry prices, triggers, and stop levels are set based on the chart shape at the close (turning prices, pullback lows, and rebound highs of each timeframe). If the structure changes with time, as long as the higher timeframe structure remains unchanged, entry prices on the lower timeframe (e.g., 15m turning price) can be adjusted to better reflect the current price action, selecting whichever value aligns more with actual conditions.

Note: This report is for information purposes and not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.