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07/26/2026 17:32
Release： 07/26/2026 17:32
Update： 07/26/2026 17:32
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Investment style : Trading System
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Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory 4-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-07-27

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: July 26, 2026 09:14 JST / Night session close 기준 July 25, 2026 06:00

Current Value: 64,290 JPY

Subject: For intraday session (Monday, 7/27)

Conclusion

In summary, after a rebound to 65,730 on 7/24, the decline accelerated, breaking the support at 64,310 (1H/4H swing low) to 64,230, and closing at 64,290. With this break of the swing low, the 4H trend also shifted to a downtrend, and all timeframes 4H, 1H, and 15m aligned in a down and selling path. During Monday, the default view is to favor selling into rallies in a continuing downtrend, but due to weekend gap risk, act after confirming the opening gap.

If the rebound stalls in the 64,460–64,930 zone, pursue a short into the rally, and if 64,230 is broken on a 15m close, the downtrend continues toward 63,900–63,430. If 64,460 is recovered on a 15m close, the 15m down-move ends and a long for a rebound is considered; a recovery to 65,070 (1H turning price) ends the 1H down move. As long as the close is not back above 65,730, the larger trend remains down. Use strong support 62,780–63,430 for potential buys on pullbacks, and protect early on both sides.

4H Analysis

The 4H has shifted from an uptrend to a downtrend. From the July 22 high of 67,670, it continued to fall, and by closing below the swing low at 64,310, the pullback highs and swing lows both moved lower, confirming a downtrend. The turning price is 65,730. The 20EMA is downward, with price below it, and the 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent) and 200EMA are above, indicating strong resistance above.

Upper level keys: 64,930 (resistance-turned), 65,070 (1H turning), 65,230, 65,730 (recent high), 67,670 (pullback high). Lower: 64,230 (night low), 63,900, 63,430, 62,780 (structural low). Until 65,730 is recovered on a close, the downtrend remains; rallies are likely to be sold. If 62,780 breaks, new lows are in play with next target 62,350.

1H Analysis

The 1H remains in a downtrend and down-move. From a rebound high of 65,730, price fell to 64,230 as a low, then retraced to 65,230 but could not recover 65,070 (turning price) and fell again to close at 64,290. The indicators 20EMA, 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent), and 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent) are all downward, with price below.

Until the 1H close recovers 65,070, the market favors selling into rallies; only a recovery would suggest the end of the down-move. If price breaks 64,230 on a 1H close, the decline continues; a break below 63,900 intensifies downside watching. Resistance zones: 64,460–64,930 and 65,070–65,230.

15m Analysis

The 15m is in a downtrend and down-move. Turning price 64,460, swing low 64,930 has been broken, with a rebound high at 65,230. After rebounding from 64,230 to 65,230, price resumed a lower high and closed at 64,290, with 20EMA negative and price below it; 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent) and 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) are above.

In the short term, 64,460 is the initial upturn trigger, and 64,230 is the recent low pivot. A close recovery at 64,460 ends the 15m down-move and invites a rebound trade; if price stalls in 64,460–64,930 and breaks 64,230 on a close, the downtrend resumes.

MTF State

  • 4H: Down / down-move. Broke 64,310 to turn down, finished with a -0.20% candle at 64,290. Turning price 65,730; swing low 64,310 X; rebound high 67,670. 20EMA downward; price below it.
  • 1H: Down / down-move. From 65,730 down to 64,230 low, back to 65,230, then down again. Turning price 65,070; swing low 64,310 X; rebound high 65,730. All MAs downward; price below.
  • 15m: Down / down-move. From 65,230 lower to 64,290 close. Turning price 64,460; swing low 64,930 X; rebound high 65,230. 20EMA negative; price below.
  • Consistency: All of 4H, 1H, and 15m are in sync on a down move; all MAs are downward. The base approach is to sell into rallies and chase shorts on breaks, prioritizing higher timeframes. Buy the dips or chase longs only as contrarian trades with confirmation of a recovery: either 64,460→65,070 recovery or strong rebound around 62,780–63,430.

Key Prices

  • 67,670 JPY: 4H pullback high. Major resistance.
  • 65,730 JPY: Most recent 1H/4H pullback high (7/24 high). A close recovery would negate the down structure.
  • 65,230 JPY: 15m pullback high. Upper bound of Rally Zone 2.
  • 65,070 JPY: 1H turning price. Lower bound of Rally Zone 1 / primary entry zone.
  • 64,930 JPY: Old 15m swing low (broken) = resistance-turned. Upper bound of Zone 1 T1 / primary entry zone.
  • 64,460 JPY: 15m turning price. Lower bound of Rally Zone 1 / trigger.
  • 64,310 JPY: 1H/4H swing low (broken) = resistance-turned.
  • 64,290 JPY: Current price / Night close.
  • 64,230 JPY: 7/25 night low. Break to continue downtrend; Trigger ④.
  • 63,900 JPY: 1H lower support. Primary entry ④ / T1.
  • 63,430 JPY: Turning point for rebound (7/18 low). ④ T1.
  • 62,780 JPY: 4H structural low. Break to new lows.
  • 62,350 JPY: Final downside target.

Trade Ideas

① Break-following (Long)

  • Trigger: Recover 64,460 (15m turning price) with a 15m close (end of 15m down-move). Contrarian long into rally across all timeframes.
  • Lead: After recovery, pull back near the break price or around the inclined 20MA on small timeframes (1m, 5m) as a back-entry based on break price.
  • Primary Entry: Recover 65,070 (1H turning price) on 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: Breaks below 64,160 for the lead; 64,460 for the main entry.
  • Targets: 64,930 (part profit + base), 65,230 / 65,730.
  • RR: T1 (64,930) = 1.6 / T2 (65,230) = 2.6.
  • MFE Protection: Exit base at +200 or small profit; secure at least +100 with +300 for trailing. Since in a down-trend across all timeframes, focus on core position and tighten protection early.

② Buying the Dip (Long)

  • Standard: Pull back to 63,900–64,230 (lower pivot to recent low) and confirm a rebound pattern with a 15m close. Deep pullbacks to 62,780–63,430 (structural low to rebound point). This is a contrarian play in a downtrend and requires clear rebound confirmation at strong support.
  • Primary Entry: Recover 64,930 on 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: Lead breaks 63,700; main breaks 63,380. Full exit below 62,780 (switch to ④).
  • Targets: 64,460 (partial profit + base), 65,070 / 65,230.
  • RR: T1 (64,460) = 1.5 / T2 (65,070) = 3.6.
  • MFE Protection: Exit base at +200 or small profit; secure at least +100 with +300 for trailing. In the low-price zone, contrarian plays require extra caution against false moves; protect early.

③ Return Selling (Short)

  • Standard: Cap upside in the 64,460–64,930 range (15m turning price to old swing low = resistance-turned) and confirm the stall with a 15m close. Zone 2 is 65,070–65,230 (1H turning price to 15m pullback high).
  • Primary Entry: Break 64,230 (recent low) on 1H close = continuation of downtrend.
  • Stop/Invalidation: Lead recovers to 65,000 (if deep pullback then 65,300); main recovers 64,930. Full exit above 65,730 (denial of the down structure).
  • Targets: 63,900 (partial profit + base), 63,430 / 62,780.
  • RR: T1 (63,900) = 2.7 / T2 (63,430) = 4.2.
  • MFE Protection: Exit base at +200 or small profit; secure at least +100 with +300 for trailing. This is a trend-following approach but protect quickly in the low-price zone. If the trigger foot is confirmed and T1 reached, consider delay.

④ Break-Following (Short)

  • Trigger: Break 64,230 (7/25 Night Low) with a 15m close (downtrend continues).
  • Lead: After the break, pull back near the break price or around the inclined 20MA on short timeframes (1m, 5m) as a back-entry based on break price.
  • Primary Entry: Break 63,900 (1H lower support) on 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: Lead recovers to 64,580; main recovers 64,460. Complete exit above 64,930.
  • Targets: 63,430 (partial profit + base) and 62,780 / 62,350.
  • RR: T1 (63,430) = 2.3 / T2 (62,780) = 4.1. 63,900 is not used for T1 since it is a component of this entry.
  • MFE Protection: Exit base at +200 or small profit; secure at least +100 with +300 for trailing. In the lower-price zone, selling may produce false moves; protect early and be cautious of false breakouts.

Current Actions

  • Most Important Line 1: 64,230 JPY. July 25 Night Low. If broken on a 15m close, downside continues (63,900 → 63,430). As long as this level holds, expect a rebound toward 64,460–64,930.
  • Most Important Line 2: 64,460–65,070 JPY. 15m turning price to 1H turning price. Recovery to 64,460 ends the 15m down-move and starts a rebound; if stalled in this band, it indicates a pullback selling in line with the trend. Recovery to 65,070 ends the 1H down-move; up to 65,730, the larger trend remains down.

Entry prices, triggers, and stops are set based on the chart shapes at close (turning prices, swing lows, and pullback highs of each timeframe). If the structure changes over time, unless higher-timeframe structure changes, entries on lower-timeframe wave turning prices (e.g., where a short-term down-move turns into an up-move) will be adjusted to better reflect actual conditions, and the more accurate value will be adopted. Expect gaps at Monday open due to the weekend.

Note: This report is for information purposes and not investment advice. Trading decisions are the responsibility of the reader.