【Journey Toward Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260726】

[Dream Trajectory_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Notes/Reminders_20260726]


July 26, Sunday.

Hello.

The south Kanto region is struck by thunder,
perhaps guerrilla trading won’t come?
as evening approaches.

This week there are big events like FOMC, BOE, and the Bank of Japan meeting,
so I’d like to refrain from aggressive trades.

Thursday and Friday seem likely to move dramatically.


Now, let’s verify.
These are the counts at the close of the daily chart.


【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 19th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 20th bar / 6LT
Weekly volatility: 85 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 23rd bar / 16
4HC: 2nd cycle, 56th bar / 13

I interpret it this way.

I’m expecting the US dollar to strengthen,
but with FOMC ahead,
which way it will move?
I’m considering.

On higher timeframes, the bias is bearish.

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20260726_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/ykTYr2u8f3M
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 23rd bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 26th bar / 26 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 12th bar / 12
Weekly volatility: 178 pips
HPC: 2nd or HPC 1, 58th bar / 57
4HC: 5th cycle, 16th bar / 9

I interpret it this way.

The weekly levels are hard to discern, but
the upside bias remains.

However, the number 164
can be a major level,
so it may become a point of intervention.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 19th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 17th bar / 5LT
Weekly volatility: 182 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 23rd bar / 16
4HC: 2nd cycle, 55th bar / 13

I interpret it this way.

I view the dollar pairs with a bearish bias.
There could be a sharp drop?

If the US dollar is strong,
it might be because it is the base currency?


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 24th bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 24th bar / 10
Weekly volatility: 131 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 23rd bar / 22
4HC: 2nd cycle, 25th bar / 16

I interpret it this way.

If USD/JPY stalls and EUR/USD declines,
EUR/JPY could be affected.


If there is intervention then,
a major drop is possible.

With big events continuing,
the future movements will become clearer.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 24th bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 23rd bar / 22
Weekly volatility: 131 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 26th bar / 19
4HC: 2nd cycle, 62nd bar / 20

I interpret it this way.

GBP/USD remains bearish.
If USD/JPY stalls,
GBP/JPY will be influenced by GBP/USD.

How much USD/JPY rises will be the key.
That will be the focal point.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 16th bar / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 23rd bar / 16
Weekly volatility: 136 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 17th bar / 17
4HC: 2nd cycle, 33rd bar / 32

I interpret it this way.

AUD is linked to US stocks; of course, it is inversely correlated.
When AUD/USD declines and USD/JPY stalls,



AUD/JPY tends to fall as well.

Trading USD/JPY is difficult.


*****************************
20260726_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/ykTYr2u8f3M
*****************************

  
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DXY 101.465 +0.03%
US10Y 4.681 -0.38%
DJI 51,952 points +235
US500 -0.13%
WTI 89.485 dollars
Brent 96.78 dollars
Nikkei 225 64,610 yen -1,811

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