MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Jul.27 2026

1. Review

The Nikkei Stock Average closed last week at 64,611, up 470 points from the previous week. The week's high was on Wednesday the 22nd at 67,592. The week's low was on Friday the 24th at 64,201. The week's high approached the upper resistance line but did not exceed it and pulled back. The closing price for the week fluctuated between the weekly lower support line and the weekly upper resistance line, so it was neutral. However, it remained on the weaker side. Most notably, this closing price fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for three consecutive weeks. Normally this would warrant a downgrade to a “downward trend,” but on a weekly-interval basis the close was bullish, so the underlying trend remains “neutral.”

2. Cycles

As previously stated, in “Forecast 2026” the long-term market cycle for the Nikkei Stock Average has been shifted from 17 years to 19 years. However, the starting point remains October 28, 2008, at 6,994. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottoms, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be a focal point for 2026. That said, there is no change to the view that the current market is built on a four-year cycle, and the development of future long-term cycles will depend on the movements of the recent PC (typically 12–20 weeks). Currently, from the perspective of long-term cycles, two very important lows are August 5, 2024 at 31,156 and April 7, 2025 at 30,792. These two lows are nested between the November 28, 2024 low of 37,801, forming PC bottoms of 16 and 19 weeks. The issue is how to interpret the subsequent PC.

In addition, the Nikkei’s PC is most often classified as either a third-phase pattern consisting of three MCs (typically 4–7 weeks) or a second-phase pattern consisting of two half-PCs (typically 7–11 weeks), which determines the sub-cycle phase.

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