Weekly DAO | Currencies to Watch Next Week (5th Week of July 2026)

～Market Environment Recognition Interpreted by DAO～

Good evening.
Thank you again for reading this week’s “Weekly DAO.”

The continuing scorching heat has been severe day after day, and the Weather Agency's statistics show that in late July many locations nationwide are recording midsummer days and heatwaves. Please prioritize your health and engage with the market at a sustainable pace.

Next week runs from July 27 to August 2. Several important events are scheduled, including the FOMC, the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting, and US GDP data. In currency pairs including the yen and the dollar, be cautious of rapid price movements before and after these announcements.

This week, I will again use the market environment recognition indicator “DAO” that I actually use in trading to organize the markets to watch next week.

This企画 is not an article predicting next week's prices.As of now, to determine whether buyers or sellers have the upper handand to prepare the materials for decision-making next week.

The following is my personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of profit.

This Week’s DAO One Point

Power dynamics of market participants viewed through DAO

In the market, buyers and sellers are always pulling in opposite directions.

In DAO, you can view EMA20 on the monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts on one screen and compare whether each is moving up or down.

For example, if EMA20 on all timeframes from monthly to hourly are moving upward,the balance of market participants leans toward the buy side from long-term to short-termand is interpreted accordingly.

On the other hand, if the daily is moving up but the hourly is moving down, it may indicate that the long-term buyers are being challenged by short-term sellers.

The important thing is not “buy because it’s rising” or “sell because it’s falling.” It is to check the direction of EMA20 and the distance to the current price, and to organize which timeframes are under pressure and support from buyers and sellers.

Next Week’s Top 3 Currencies to Watch

3rd place: EURUSD

EURUSD has EMA20 moving downward on the monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour, and hourly charts. In DAO, the long-term and short-term directions align in a selling-dominant environment. The hourly EMA20 is approximately 8.7 pips away from the current price, and the 4-hour EMA20 is about 24.4 pips away, not excessively distant. Next week there will be many dollar-related events, so I want to observe the market participants’ reactions around the hourly EMA20.

2nd place: AUDJPY

AUDJPY has EMA20 rising on all timeframes from monthly to hourly. Notably, the hourly EMA20 is very close—about 0.7 pips—from the current price, making it easy to monitor the battle between the current price and the short-term EMA20. The 4-hour EMA20 is also rising, so the environment from long-term to short-term is relatively clear. For now, buyers have the edge, but I want to carefully observe whether the buyers can sustain around the EMA20.

1st place: NZDJPY