When you see a market that has stretched this far, you almost want to jump in, right — I’ve been burned by that many times in the past as well.

Today I’ll organize things to avoid that happening.

Gold today has surged to around $4,115. It clearly broke above the previous day’s high around $4,084 and extended a lot from the previous day’s low near $3,999. The RSI (an indicator of overbought/oversold) is around 76 on the 1-hour chart and around 72 on the 15-minute chart, both in overbought territory. On the other hand, looking at the arrangement of EMAs, the short-term line is above the long-term line, while the mid-term line remains below the long-term line, so it hasn’t formed a straightforward bullish cross. In short, the momentum is strong, but the line arrangement hasn’t fully aligned yet.

This article is個人の分析, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make buy/sell decisions at your own risk.

Today I think it’s better not to commit to a direction. If the EMA arrangement comes together nicely including the 1-hour EMA75 around $4,041 and trends upward, I plan to strengthen the bullish outlook. Conversely, if it runs up and then pulls back toward the previous day’s high, I think it’s a moment to wait for the overheating to ease.

In the past I would jump in even when RSI was high, thinking “there is momentum,” and ended up buying at highs many times. Now I wait until the line arrangement aligns before taking action.

Today my stance is not settled, so I’ll suspend calculating reference entries. After overheating subsides and direction becomes clearer, I’ll share new material for consideration.

*These are educational reference values. Please make actual trading decisions on your own.

Support ①: $4,072 (Basis: 1-hour EMA20)

Support ②: $4,041 (Basis: 1-hour EMA75)

Support ③: $4,085 (Basis: previous day’s high)

Support ④: $3,999 (Basis: previous day’s low)

1-hour EMA200: $4,047 (to be watched as a broad support)

“Buy after confirming in a rising market.”

This article is 個人の分析, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make buy/sell decisions at your own risk.

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