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07/21/2026 17:18
Release： 07/21/2026 17:18
Update： 07/21/2026 17:18
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Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory 4-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-07-22

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: July 22, 2026 06:06 JST / Night Session

Current Value: 67,200 Yen

Target: For intraday session (July 22, Wednesday)

Conclusion

In conclusion, the rebound from 62,780 developed into a full-fledged uptrend, trading up to 67,340 during the night and closing at 67,200. All timeframes 4H, 1H, and 15m turned to an uptrend with aligned direction (the 15m recently showing a minor pullback). Throughout Wednesday, the focus is on upside continuation with pullback buying as a priority, but upper resistance lies at the 4H upper MA band around 67,500–67,600 and the 68,910 barrier, so chasing higher should be approached cautiously.

If there is a pullback to 66,410–66,000 and it rebounds, buy the dip; if 67,340 is surpassed on a 15m close, follow with a trailing load. Upside zones are 67,930–68,220 and 68,650–68,910 (retracement selling zone). If it stalls, consider counter-trend take profits. If 66,000 closes below on a 15m close, uptrend pauses and a pullback to 64,310 (4H turning point) would indicate a trend reversal. Be mindful of the upper MA bands and the 68,910 barrier, and protect early on.

4H Analysis

The 4H time frame shifted from a downtrend to an uptrend. It rebounded from 62,780 and surpassed 66,080 to return to 67,200, with the turning price at 64,310. The 20EMA has turned upward and price remains above it. However, the 120EMA (around 67,500, corresponding to the daily 20EMA) and the 200EMA (around 67,600) are approaching from above, making the upper MA band the first likely resistance.

Key resistance levels: 67,930 (former 1H pullback low), 68,220, 68,650, 68,910 (retracement high / largest wall). Support: 66,410 (1H turning), 65,990 (support-turned), 64,310 (4H turning / lifeline). As long as 64,310 holds, uptrend remains intact, but there exists a zone of selling pressure between 67,500–68,910, making a straight-line ascent less likely.

1H Analysis

The 1H is in an uptrend and rising wave. It climbed from 64,310 on a pullback low and retraced to 67,200, with turning price at 66,410. The 20EMA and 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) are rising, and price sits above them; the 480EMA (daily 20EMA-like near 67,700) is near the upside.

As long as 66,410 holds on a 1H close, the upmove continues and a break above 67,340 on a close may extend the pullback; if 66,410 closes below on a 1H, the uptrend would fail and a break below 64,310 would indicate a turning point. Upside targets: 67,930–68,220 and 68,650–68,910 are zones where selling pressure may appear.

15m Analysis

The 15m timeframe maintains an uptrend, though recently it moved from 67,340 to 67,200 in a small pullback, entering a downwave. Turning price is 67,210, with a pullback low of 66,000 and a retrace high of 65,990 which has already been surpassed (support turned). The 20EMA is rising and price sits above it.

In the short term, 67,210 is the initial trigger for resuming the upmove, and 67,340 is the line distinguishing the recent high. A close above 67,340 on a 15m close updates the upwave highs, enabling follow-on (back-entry) around the break price vicinity. If pullbacks to 66,410–66,000 rebound, buy the dip; if price closes below 66,000, the upmove would be invalidated and a move to 64,310 would indicate a downshift. Resistance zones: 67,930–68,220 and 68,650–68,910.

MTF State

  • 4H: Uptrend / Upward wave. Rebounded from 62,780 and turned, returning to 67,200. Turning price 64,310; pullback low 64,310; retracement high 68,910. 20EMA rising; price above it (120/200EMA approaching).
  • 1H: Uptrend / Upward wave. From 64,310 pullback low, price rose. Turning 66,410; pullback low 64,310; retracement high 68,910. All MAs rising; price above them.
  • 15m: Uptrend / Downward wave. Small pullback from 67,340. Turning price 67,210; pullback low 66,000; retracement high 65,990 (broken). 20EMA rising; price above it.
  • Consistency: All of 4H, 1H, and 15m are in an uptrend with aligned direction (15m recently showing a minor pullback). The rebound from 62,780 developed into an uptrend. Trend-following: dip buying and breakout-following longs, retracement selling as counter-trend only. If price rises above 64,310, uptrend persists; 68,910 remains the largest barrier.

Important Prices

  • 68,910 Yen: 4H and 1H retrace high. The highest upside barrier.
  • 68,650 Yen: Key point in the upmove. Point ② T2.
  • 68,220 Yen: Key point in the upmove. Point ① T1.
  • 67,930 Yen: 1H former pullback low = resistance turned. ① core unit / ② T1.
  • 67,340 Yen: 15m recent retrace high (July 22 high). ① trigger / ② core unit.
  • 67,210 Yen: 15m turning price.
  • 67,200 Yen: Current price / night closing price.
  • 66,410 Yen: 1H turning price. Upper bound of Dip Buy Zone 1.
  • 66,080 Yen: 4H turning point (July 21 retrace high).
  • 66,000 Yen: 15m pullback low. Lower bound of Dip Buy Zone 1.
  • 65,990 Yen: Breakout of the 15m retrace high = support turned.
  • 65,620 Yen: Turning point on rebound. Lower bound for deep pullback risk.
  • 64,310 Yen: 1H/4H turning price (July 21 pullback low). Lifeline of the uptrend.
  • 62,780 Yen: Most recent low (July 17).
  • 62,350 Yen: 4H structural low.

Trade Ideas

① Breakout Follow-Through (Long)

  • Trigger: Break above 67,340 (15m recent retrace high / July 22 high) with a 15m close (updating the upwave high).
  • Advance: After the breakout, pull back toward the breakout price vicinity or around the tilted 20MA on 1m/5m to gauge in (back-entry, target around 67,100, breakout price basis).
  • Core condition: Recover 67,930 (1H former pullback low = resistance turned) on a 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: First leg 66,940 break; core leg 66,410 break.
  • Targets: 68,220 (partial profit + base), 68,650 / 68,910.
  • RR: T1 (68,220) = 2.2 / T2 (68,650) = 3.3.
  • MFE protection: Exit or trim at +200 Yen at base or small gain, secure at least +100 Yen with +300 Yen or use trailing. Be mindful of the 4H upper MA band and the 68,910 barrier; protect early.

② Dip Buying (Long)

  • Standard: Pull back to 66,410–66,000 (1H turning to 15m pullback low) and confirm the rebound pattern with a 15m close. Deep pullbacks to 65,990–65,620 (support turned / rebound zone).
  • Core condition: Recover 67,340 on a 1H close (uptrend continuation confirmed).
  • Stop/Invalidation: First leg down 65,900 break; core leg 65,620 break. Fully exit below 64,310. If 66,000 breaks clearly, treat as no further upside; a break below 64,310 indicates a trend reversal (switch to ④).
  • Targets: 67,930 (partial profit + base), 68,220 / 68,650.
  • RR: T1 (67,930) = 5.8 / T2 (68,220) = 6.7.
  • MFE protection: Exit or trim at +200 Yen at base or small gain, secure at least +100 Yen with +300 Yen; protect early as price approaches upper resistance band.

③ Sell the Rally (Short)

  • Standard: In the range 67,930–68,220 (1H former pullback low + 4H upper MA band), observe for stall and confirm with a 15m close. Zone 2: 68,650–68,910 (retracement high / largest barrier).
  • Core condition: Break below 66,410 on a 1H close (1H upmove collapses).
  • Stop/Invalidation: First leg recovers above 68,320, core leg recovers above 68,650. Strong invalidation at 68,910 (retracement high recovers = uptrend continues).
  • Targets: 67,210 (partial profit + base), 66,410 / 66,000.
  • RR: T1 (67,210) = 2.5 / T2 (66,410) = 5.0.
  • MFE protection: Exit or trim at +200 Yen at base or small gain, secure at least +100 Yen with +300 Yen; as this is a higher timeframe bullish scenario, avoid deep chasing; anticipate no downshift below 65,990; if trigger is confirmed and T1 reached, skip.

④ Breakout Follow-Through (Short)

  • Trigger: Break below 65,990 (15m pullback low / support broken) with a 15m close (upward wave breakdown).
  • Advance: After breakdown, pull back toward breakout price vicinity or tilted 20MA vicinity on short frames to gauge in (back-entry, breakout price basis).
  • Core condition: Break below 64,310 on a 1H close (1H/4H turning break = uptrend reversal).
  • Stop/Invalidation: First leg recovers above 66,440, core leg recovers above 66,410. Full exit at 67,340.
  • Targets: 65,390 (partial profit + base), 64,310 / 62,780.
  • RR: T1 (65,390) = 1.3 / T2 (64,310) = 3.7.
  • MFE protection: Exit or trim at +200 Yen at base or small gain, secure at least +100 Yen with +300 Yen; as all are rising, expect no downward shift until 65,990 breaks; watch for sharp reversals.

Current Action

  • Most Important Line 1: 66,410–66,000 Yen. Support zone for dip buying (1H turning to 15m pullback low). If rebound, dip buying continues; if 66,000 closes below on a 15m close, uptrend ends and a move to 64,310 indicates an uptrend reversal (switch to ②→④).
  • Most Important Line 2: 67,340–67,930 Yen. From the latest high to the 4H upper MA + 1H former pullback low zone. A close above 67,340 triggers a follow-through path (to 68,220 → 68,910). This zone coincides with 4H 120EMA and 200EMA, often acting as resistance; if it stalls, consider counter-trend retracement. 68,910 is the largest barrier.

Entry price, trigger, and stop levels are set based on the chart shape at the time of closing (turning prices, pullback lows, and retracement highs of each timeframe). If the structure changes over time, unless the higher timeframe structure changes, entry price may be adjusted to reflect the turning price of the lower timeframe (e.g., a short-term frame first retreat before turning up), selecting the more realistic figure.

※This report is for information purposes and is not investment advice. Please make your own investment decisions at your own risk.