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TriParity Labs - Kaz
07/19/2026 02:31
Release： 07/19/2026 02:31
Update： 07/19/2026 02:31
TriParity Labs - Kaz
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 10 million - 50 million JPY
We are developing analytical tools to read the “ distortions” that are hard to see with just a single currency pair, by analyzing multiple price relationships. The goal is not merely to forecast correctly, but to narrow the market conditions to watch and make it easier to decide which situations to pass on. We shape only what we can genuinely want to use ourselves, after extensive verification. From childhood, I programmed games in BASIC, and after graduating from high school in Japan I moved to the United States alone. At university I studied mathematics and art, and in graduate school I studied architecture, receiving the National Mathematics Award in the field of mathematics. Currently, while working as a business consultant, I have been actively involved in stocks since 2002 and FX since 2012. In the early days I experienced substantial losses, but through that process I deeply felt the importance of the principles of “small losses,” “discipline,” and “verification first.” Since then I have built my own analysis and improvements centered on the ideas of triangular currency parity and risk management. I even fulfilled my long-cherished dream of buying a condominium in Tokyo and designing and completing a full renovation myself. In both work and investment, I value understanding the structure, designing it, and bringing it into shape. The ideas honed in those real-world experiences have been generalized into a more reproducible form in the “Intervention Aftermath” series. Focusing on price distortions, time lags, and short-term convergence phases that are likely to occur after overshoots caused by influences such as HFT and interbank markets, it is designed to enable efficient observation, screening, and judgment of those specific moments only. Chart-monitoring fatigue, impulsive entries, ending only after verification, and not having enough time due to being a part-time trader—these past mistakes and worries have become the starting point for the logic design itself. The development policy has remained consistent: “Only bring to the world tools that I myself genuinely want to use.” Rather than flashy features, the aim is to slightly improve actual decision-making, reduce unnecessary trades, and lead to more convincing buy/sell decisions.
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Reading FX with the Three-Currency Parity: Turning Everyday "Distortions" into Profit via Three-Currency Parity Analysis, Episode 2: Can You See the "Structure" with Analysis of Only Two Currencies? - The Limitations of Analyzing One Pair

Last time,“The market should move according to theory, right?” “Every day a small ‘distortion’ is appearing somewhere.”We went together up to that point. This time, we will look at“distortion”and what limits you would hit if you chase it by looking at only one currency pair──
and I would like to整理（organize/clarify） from there.

1. The Typical “One-Pair Analysis” that many traders do

First, let’s review the common ways charts are used.


  • Top left: USDJPY 15-minute chart

  • Top right: the same USDJPY on a 1-hour chart

  • Bottom: oscillators such as RSI, Stochastics, MACD

  • Overlay Bollinger Bands or moving averages as needed

With this setup,

  • “Timing with shorter timeframes”

  • “Confirm the direction from higher timeframes”

  • “Check overbought/oversold with oscillators”

is the most common one-pair analysis style.

This approach itself is by no means wrong.I have used it for a long time and still refer to it.

However,“distortions in the market”, when taken seriously, reveal thata one-pair analysis inevitably leaves a blind spot.

2. Three things you miss with analysis that is limited to a single pair

If you’re only looking at one currency pair, the following three things become hard to see.

① You can’t tell who is really driving the market

For example USDJPY surges,

  • Is the USD getting stronger?

  • Is the JPY weakening?

  • Or are both moving in sync?


With only one pair, it’s hard to identify the true“main actor”.


If, at the same time, for example

  • EURUSD is also risingas well

  • butEURJPY is flat

in that situation,

“Ah, the main actor is this ‘dollar strength’”

you might think,
but that judgment is ultimatelyan impression formed by eyeballing multiple charts.

② You cannot grasp relationships (structure) with other currencies

Technical indicators basicallycontain only information that is within that pair.

  • Bollinger Bandsarethe standard deviation of that pair’s price

  • RSIandStochasticsmeasurethe strength of that pair’s move

  • MACDisthe relationship between moving averages of that pair


In other words,you’re only looking at the excess within USDJPY in the world.

But in reality, the forex market is a result of the tug-of-war among currencies themselves, such as
USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD… and so on.


A single-pair indicator cannot reveal

  • “Which currency is really being bought more, EUR or GBP?”

  • “Against the overall cross-yen moves, is this one currency in an odd position?”

such“relative distortions” become hard to see.

③ It’s hard to pinpoint why the distortion occurred

As discussed earlier, market distortions arise from

  • timing of indicators

  • actual demand flows (fixings, place rates, etc.)

  • algorithmic biases

and other factors.


However,looking at only one pair,

  • “Is this drop because only NZD is being sold?”

  • “Or is the dollar broadly bid?”

  • “Is another currency moving, indirectly pulling this one along?”

and other“structural reasons” remain unknown.


As a result,

  • “Buying a currency that looked strong” can get swallowed by a reversal in another currency

  • “Trying to fade what looked oversold” can be crushed by a trend led by other currencies

and so onleading to losses from unseen backgrounds.

3. Is it true that you can fix it by lining up multiple pairs?

Feeling these limitations, many people add more charts after chart.

  • Top row: dollar pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, …)

  • Middle row: cross-yen pairs (EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, …)

  • Bottom row: indices, gold, stock indexes, etc.

Of course, this helps you get a“rough market sense”.

However, when you actually consider entering a trade, don’t you feel this?

“NZD looks weak, but is it really just NZD?”
“I have a sense that EUR is strong, but I don’t know which pair to enter with.”


In other words,

  • You can tell the vague impressions like “NZD is weak” or “EUR is strong.”

  • But

    • “Which pair should I buy?”

    • “How distorted is the market?”

    • “How far back must the distortion revert to say it’s resolved?”

4. What you want is a structural-level answer

Putting it together, what we truly want is

“What move is happening now, and which currencies are pushing it, by how much?”
“From the relationships among three currencies or multiple pairs, how distorted is the state?”
“If that distortion returns to balance, which pair and roughly how far back is most likely?”

and so on,a “structural-level answer”.

With analysis limited to one pair,

  • Price movement

  • Volatility

  • Oscillator position

and other“numbers that show up on the chart as a result” are all you’re looking at.

There you

  • the alignment between currenciescoherence

  • which pair contributes how much to the distortion“contributes to the distortion”

  • where the restoration of equilibrium began“beginning of the mean reversion”

and other“relational information”, if you combine them, you can make totally different judgments even on the same chart.


The next chapter is“5.“How to see a world that isn’t visible with two currencies?””