[Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260719]
【Trajectory to a Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition & Memo_20260719】
Sunday, July 19.
Good morning.
The sky in the South Kanto area is shifting from cloudy to sunny.
It’s a cloudy sky turning sunny.
This morning is the World Cup third-place match
and I’ve been glued to the TV since morning.
What’s unfortunate is
that from 7:00 for 30 minutes
NHK aired the news
and I couldn’t watch the latter half live.
I suspect there will be complaints?
I think so.
I feel the same way a bit.
At that exact time
France scored three goals
so the 30-minute news felt a bit long.
The result ended 6–4, with England winning.
Tomorrow is the final.
Since it’s a bit early,
I’ll likely go to bed early.
Last week the US PPI was released
and inflation concerns in the US seem to be easing.
However, this morning’s news shows
the Middle East remains unsettled,
keeping crude oil prices high.
Where will the results move?
There’s an FOMC at the end of the month,
the Bank of Japan meeting as well,
in this midsummer lull, but moves are expected.
And tomorrow is a holiday we should be careful about.
Intervention isn’t out of the question,
so it’s prudent not to hold unreasonable positions.
Now, let’s confirm.
The figures are at the close timing of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 19th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 19th bar / 6LT
Weekly volatility: 105 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 18th bar / 16
4HC: 2nd cycle, 25th bar / 13
We see it this way.
The 4-hour long-term moving averages are
moving between EMA200 and EMA75.
If crude oil prices rise, eventually
the price could fall below the 4-hour EMA75,
and a USD strength may come into view.
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20260719_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/YoK0w04wQYU
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 23rd
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 25th bar / 23 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 11th bar / 9
Weekly volatility: 94 pips
HPC: 2nd or HPC1, 53rd bar / 41
4HC: 4th cycle, 64th bar / 21
We see it this way.
Weekly volatility is small, so a top may be forming.
As a trading pair, it may not be suitable.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 19th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 16th bar / 5LT
Weekly volatility: 216 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 18th bar / 16
4HC: 2nd cycle, 25th bar / 13
We see it this way.
Due to the British government issue,
the domestic currency was bought up.
And it has returned to the 618 line.
If crude oil stays high, meaning USD strengthens,
we may see a downside.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 24th bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 23rd bar / 10
Weekly volatility: 164 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 53rd bar / 30 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 18th bar / 17
4HC: 2nd cycle, 3rd bar / 2
We see it this way.
It seems we are encountering a milestone in the 4HC.
It’s hard to expect it to get longer, so
it may close at a low after a high.
If EUR/USD forms a bearish candle
and USD/JPY stalls,
it could move downwards.
If there is intervention in USD/JPY,
the bearish view becomes larger.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 24th bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 22nd bar / 22
Weekly volatility: 312 pips
HPC2: 52nd bar / 51 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 21st bar / 19
4HC: 2nd or 5th cycle, 32nd bar / 19
We see it this way.
A key horizontal line is stopping it.
If it moves downward in the future,
you’ll need to judge on the lower timeframes.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 16th bar / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 22nd bar / 16
Weekly volatility: 165 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 57th bar / 24LT or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 12th bar / 11
4HC: 2nd or 5th cycle, 3rd bar / 3
The possibility of Half Primary Cycle (HPC) seems to have diminished.
Since 4HC also appears to have shifted to the 3rd bar,
we are considering that a drop in AUD/USD could be the trigger.
In Japan, Monday is a holiday, but
in Australia it’s usually a normal trading day.
We will pay attention to movements after 14:00 closing time.
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20260719_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/YoK0w04wQYU
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DXY 100.754 +0.05%
US10Y 4.549 -0.18%
DJI 52,151 dollars -407
US500 -0.92%
WTI 81.705 dollars
BRN 88.1 dollars
Nikkei 225 64,140 yen -2,694
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