MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Jul.21 2026

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 64,141, down 4,416 points from the previous week. The week's high was 69,078 on Monday the 13th. The week's low was 62,704 on Friday the 17th. The closing price fell below the weekly support line, so the week was bearish. This ends the streak of bullishness. Furthermore, this closing price fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the second consecutive week. However, the underlying condition remains in a “neutral” state.

2. Cycles

As has been stated before, in “Forecast 2026” the long-term market cycle duration for the Nikkei Stock Average has been changed from 17 years to 19 years. However, there is no change to the starting point of October 28, 2008, at 6,994. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottoms, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be the focus in 2026.

However, there is no change to the view that the current market is structured as a four-year cycle, and the future development of the long-term market cycle will be influenced in the near term by the movement of the PC (usually 12–20 weeks). At present, from the long-term cycle perspective, the very important lows are August 5, 2024 at 31,156 and April 7, 2025 at 30,792. These two lows were the PC bottoms, sandwiched around the PC bottom at 37,801 on November 28, 2024, lasting 16 weeks and 19 weeks respectively. The question is how PC will be viewed thereafter.

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