Ask Okachanman about the魅力 of repeat-order based orders and introduce the indicator “Repeat Dragon” that holds期待

In this project, the FX攻略.com editorial team asks Mr. Oka-chan-man about how he uses repeat-type orders in practice, as well as the upcoming indicator "Repeat Dragon" that will be released in the future.

Repeat-type trading is effortless and, when operated with low leverage for the long term, compounding works

KatsunaiLast time, you taught us fundamentals. This time I’d like to ask about repeat-type trading. Please tell us the merits of repeat-type trading.

Oka-chan-man (hereafter, Oka)First, it is not labor-intensive. Although the initial version of Kawasaki Doruemon’s “Guruguru Train” required manual input, it has been automated as an EA, right? Repeat-type trading is somewhat simplified by many FX companies, including Money Square. So, one merit is that it doesn’t take much effort.
Another is that it is not influenced by your own mental state. You set up the strategy at the beginning and then it repeatedly trades at a fixed tempo, so there is no room for your psychology to come into play. Trading is highly mental-driven, so the ability to trade without being swayed is a big advantage.

KatsunaiSo it can trade stably.

OkaThose two are the advantages of repeat-type trading. Also, since our strategy uses almost no leverage, although not absolutely certain, I think there is a 90% probability of not losing.

KatsunaiWhy do you say you won’t lose?

OkaBecause we manage funds in a way that can withstand even when USD/JPY falls to 30 or 40 yen per dollar. If it falls to 30 yen per dollar, Japan would be in trouble before our account would be.

KatsunaiThat seems like a world where even the all-time low could still keep the account afloat. It’s a financial plan that keeps the account afloat even at the lowest, hence the results won’t show losses.

OkaYes, with this strategy, the calculation is almost that you won’t lose, so compound interest can be used. Compound interest may not look like much on a yearly basis, but over two, three, five years, the power of compounding becomes quite significant in its impact.

KatsunaiOn the other hand, are there any drawbacks to repeat-type trading?

OkaIt doesn’t grow rapidly all at once. Because you operate with low leverage, it would be quite difficult for someone who aims to live on trading income as a full-time job unless they have substantial funds.

KatsunaiBuilding on the previous point, what mental attitude helps you sustain this for a long time without rushing?

OkaStop looking at it.

KatsunaiDon’t look! I see.

OkaRather than not looking, I treat repeat-type trading as something I disregard. Then, when I lose in discretionary trading, I look at the repeat-type trading. What happens is that what I left alone grows, which becomes a mental oasis. It’s okay to treat it as better than a regular fixed deposit.

KatsunaiPeople who want to maximize right away may not resonate with it.

OkaIt’s not for them.

KatsunaiAlso, repeat-type trading always involves drawdowns, right? How can one get accustomed to drawdowns?

OkaNot having drawdowns becomes intolerable.

KatsunaiWhat do you mean?

OkaIn the repeat-type strategy, swaps are also included. We design so swaps stay positive. Therefore, if you are not holding a position, you don’t earn swaps.
Basically, we only hold positions in the buy direction. We take many smaller positions within the range. Holding drawdown means you hold many positions, which earns swaps daily. Not holding drawdown means you hold no positions, so swaps do not accrue.

KatsunaiThen, even with drawdowns, you can maintain calm.

OkaAs it gradually shifts toward one side of the range and settlements proceed, the number of positions decreases. At that point, daily interest decreases, which feels a bit lonely.

KatsunaiAnother question: Oka-chan-man, you operate with the ability to endure at the lowest prices, but do you think repeat-type trading that cuts losses quickly with a narrow profit margin is viable?

OkaI think it is viable. This also depends on how you use repeat-type trading. What I did a lot is the Euro/Swiss Franc in 2016-2017. The Swiss franc is often intervened upon quickly. When you look at the chart, you can sense the intervention level, so you set repeats a little above that level, and if it falls you enter and hold a position waiting for intervention, and you exit when intervention causes a spike. When there is uncertainty due to events like the French presidential election or UK referendum, the Swiss franc tends to be bought, which increases the need for intervention. You can combine this with repeat-type trading into something like “Swiss franc intervention repeat.”

KatsunaiAs a short-term strategy, I think it’s entirely viable.

OkaYes. Also, one just needs to calculate how many rotations it takes for the stop loss to align with the risk/reward, and then plan accordingly.

KatsunaiThat’s a good benchmark. Repeat-type trading isn’t understandable to everyone. It’s a completely different concept.

“Repeat Dragon” for near-repeat-type operation in MT4

Target: range repeat on the Swiss franc

KatsunaiNext, please introduce the “Repeat Dragon.” It isn’t on sale yet, correct?

OkaAuthorization is in progress, so once that finishes, we will release it as is.

KatsunaiIs Repeat Dragon an EA or an indicator?

OkaIt will be treated as an indicator for now.

KatsunaiWill the repeat-type settings be operable?

OkaYou set the range width, and then decide whether to place limit orders at 〇 pips intervals within that range. If you take a position and settle, it happens automatically, similar to the repeat-type offerings from FX companies. It’s made to run on MT4. FX company repeat-type products can have wide spreads or be limited to certain currency pairs.

KatsunaiThe most common is about 20 types at most.

OkaOur main focus is the Swiss franc, as Swiss franc availability is limited with Japanese brokers.

KatsunaiNot widely available. Some discretionary access exists only marginally.

OkaThe most popular pairs are AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY, but the Swiss franc has a larger negative rate spread than the yen.

Katsunai0.7 or so, right?

OkaThus swaps are larger, making it more efficient. Then the range width is narrower for Swiss francs. Cross yen pairs have higher volatility, so their ranges can be wider than expected.

KatsunaiAmong Swiss franc options, is CAD/CHF the most recommended?

OkaRecently, CAD/CHF is the go-to.

KatsunaiWhich quote is best?

OkaAbout weekly charts should suffice. If you can view around three years, that’s good.

TradingView CAD/CHF chart
KatsunaiIndeed, you can tell at a glance.

OkaBecause the Swiss franc is subject to intervention, its lower bound is well-defined. Personally, Canada also seems to determine its policy by watching its own levels, so if the CAD rises too much, they may refrain from hikes, which makes a range more likely.

KatsunaiThis is essentially a range trading scenario.

OkaFor about three years, it’s been in a range, and the range itself is quite narrow.

KatsunaiAbout 800 pips.

OkaIn CAD/JPY, the range is somewhat wider. Plus, Canada’s interest rates have been rising recently.

KatsunaiFor example, if you suddenly want to start from the middle of the range, should you wait for the lower bound?

OkaI think that’s fine. From there, you should hold positions only from the lower bound portion.

KatsunaiAs long as you don’t break the lower support line, it’s the same thing.

OkaHolding positions down to the lower bound causes drawdowns, so you earn daily interest when the price moves down. In the middle to upper part of the range, interest does not accrue. When it moves from the lower bound to the upper, you hold positions and settle as it goes up.

KatsunaiSo rollover is important to avoid.

OkaThe hardest pattern is when it breaks above the range. If you don’t have positions and aren’t in the range, that’s the most painful scenario.

KatsunaiThat’s a plus but you won’t make much money. You may end with a positive result, but not much.

OkaYes. No drawdown, but no profit either.

KatsunaiWe discussed CAD/CHF, and indeed with standard FX company repeats you probably won’t see such currency pairs.

OkaSo it would be nice if Repeat Dragon could work on MT4.

KatsunaiAre there any other special features?

OkaWe have take-profit and stop-loss options. For example, you can set take-profit per position at 10 pips, or close all positions at the top in a single settlement. You can also set a Stop to ensure you don’t lose, like stopping at 1 dollar 40 yen, and you can choose per-position pips-based trailing or stop ideas for short-term use.

KatsunaiIs there a trailing function?

OkaThere is no trailing.

KatsunaiWhat price do you plan?

OkaWe’re not sure yet, but for now we set 30,000 yen. We’re also considering launching at 25,000 yen with a 5,000 yen discount for opening. Is this typical?

KatsunaiThere aren’t many. The “Guruto-Re EA” is currently about 17,800 yen, so 10,000–20,000 yen is the average.

OkaWe are thinking of including setup support for the initial system installation.

KatsunaiThat’s good.

OkaWe might also offer a one-time Skype support. We’ll also include a strategy package video with a proposed default setup and recommended settings as a guide.

KatsunaiThat’s a thoughtful design. Looking forward to the release. Thank you.