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07/16/2026 17:31
Release： 07/16/2026 17:31
Update： 07/16/2026 17:31
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory 4-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-07-17

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: July 17, 2026 06:15 JST / Night Session

Current Value: 65,920 JPY

Target: For Daytime Session

Conclusion

In conclusion, the night session saw a further decline from around 67,600, breaking below 66,360 (July 14 low / previous range lower bound) and closing at 65,920. The 4H chart has shifted from range to downtrend, with all 4H/1H/15m showing downward waves and moving averages trending downward, and price below them — a strong bearish setup. Throughout Thursday, the plan is to focus on selling rallies under the assumption of continued downtrend, but in the short term the price has moved into the low-price area, so wait for a rally to sell.

If a rally stalls around 66,360–66,660, consider selling into the rallies; if the 15m close breaks below 65,700, the downtrend continues and 65,430 (July 8 low) will be tested. 65,430 is a strong support and a potential reversal/uncle signaling point; a break below could lead toward the gap down to 63,410. If the price closes above 66,660 on the 15m chart, that would indicate a short-term bullish reversal, signaling a potential relief rally up to 67,930; until then the larger trend remains bearish. In the low-price zone, beware false breaks and rapid reversals and protect positions early.

4H Analysis

The 4H chart has turned into a downtrend and downward momentum. After pulling back to 68,910, it declined and closed below 66,360 (the July 14 low), closing at 65,920, thereby confirming a recent swing low and a downtrend. 20EMA and 20SMA are both downward sloping, and the price sits below them, beneath the 20EMA around 67,400 and the 200EMA around 67,600, far below the 120EMA (roughly the daily 20EMA around 68,400), indicating a strong bear market condition.

Resistance levels: 66,760; 67,930 (former swing low turned resistance); 67,920 (4H conversion price); 68,910 (pullback high). Support: 65,700; 65,430 (July 8 low; strong support); if broken, 63,410 (4H lower low); 62,350 (structural low). Until 65,430 is broken, this is a strong support zone, but since 4H has turned down, rallies are likely to be sold.

1H Analysis

The 1H timeframe remains in a downtrend and downward momentum. From the rally high of 68,910, then breaking 67,930 (old swing low) and 66,760, 66,360 in sequence to 65,920. All moving averages (20EMA, 80EMA (4H equivalent), 480EMA (daily equivalent)) are downward, with price below them.

Recent rally resistance sits at 66,660–66,760, above that at 67,930. Until 66,660 is recovered on a 1H close, prioritize selling rallies; only after recovering 67,930 should you consider a 1H bullish reversal. Below, a break of 65,430 on a 1H close signals a new leg lower.

15m Analysis

The 15m chart shows a downward wave with the latest rally high at 66,660 and swing low at 67,930 (X = already breached), with the conversion price at 66,050. After hitting 66,660 on a rally, price fell to 65,700 and closed at 65,920. 20EMA, 80EMA (1H equivalent), and 320EMA (4H equivalent) are all downward, with 20EMA negative-slope and price below them.

In the near term, 66,050 is the initial signal for bullish reversal; 66,660 acts as the recent high and a key pivot. A close above 66,660 would signal a short-term bullish reversal, with a rally toward 66,360–66,660 as the retracement stalls. A break below 65,700 would continue the downtrend. Since 20EMA is downward, avoid overextending on longs during a pullback.

MTF State

  • 4H: Downward / Downward momentum. After retreating from 68,910 and breaking 66,360 to close at 65,920, the near-term low was breached. Reversal targets: 67,920; swing low support—resistance transition; 68,910 rebound high. 20EMA/20SMA are downward; price sits below them.
  • 1H: Downward / Downward momentum. Conversion at 66,660; swing low at 67,930 (X); rebound high at 68,910. All MAs downward; price below.
  • 15m: Downward / Downward momentum. Conversion at 66,050; swing high 66,660; swing low 67,930 (X). All MAs downward (20EMA negative slope) and price below.
  • Consistency: All four-hour, one-hour, and 15-minute timeframes are in alignment with a downward/downward momentum; MAs downward. The main approach is upper-timeframe priority, selling on rallies and chasing shorts on breakouts. Buying the dips or chasing longs as a breakout is considered counter-trend—wait for clear confirmation of a recovery from 66,660–67,930 or strong support at 65,430 before taking any counter-trend long.

Key Prices

  • 68,910 JPY: 4H and 1H retrace high. Upper boundary of the rally sell zone 2.
  • 67,930 JPY: 1H and 15m former swing low (X = breached) = resistance-turned. Close to the 4H conversion at 67,920. Indicates the potential upper target in the rally.
  • 67,310 JPY: 15m retrace high zone. Target 1 for breakout-following longs.
  • 66,760 JPY: 1H former swing low (breached) = resistance-turned. Lower bound of Rally Sell Zone 2.
  • 66,660 JPY: 15m recent retrace high. Short-term pivot line (break above implies short-term bullish reversal). Upper bound of Rally Sell Zone 1.
  • 66,360 JPY: July 14 low / former range lower bound (breached) = resistance-turned. Lower bound of Rally Sell Zone 1.
  • 66,050 JPY: 15m conversion price. Early signal line for short-term bullish reversal.
  • 65,920 JPY: Current price / Night close price.
  • 65,700 JPY: 15m recent low. A break below signals continued declines.
  • 65,430 JPY: July 8 low / 4H recent low. Strong downside support; potential reversal candidate or break to form a new 4H low.
  • 63,410 JPY: 4H lower low. Mid-term downside target.
  • 62,350 JPY: 4H structural low. The most important downside level.

Trade Ideas

① Breakout Following (Long)

  • Trigger: Break above 66,660 (15m recent retrace high) on a 15m close (short-term bullish reversal). Counter-trend in all timeframes — a pullback buy.
  • Premise: After the breakout, pullback toward the breakout price vicinity or the slope of the 20MA on very short timeframes like 1m/5m as a back-entry, based on breakout price.
  • Consolidation condition: Recover 66,760 on a 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: 66,360 breached on the pullback; 66,050 breached on the main entry.
  • Targets: 67,310 (partial take + position), 67,930 / 68,910.
  • RR: T1 (67,310) = 2.2 / T2 (67,930) = 4.2. Since all timeframes are downward, focus on pullback entries around the main target.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or +300 with at least +100 or use trailing. Protect early in the low-price environment since this is a counter-trend move.

② Buy on Dips (Long)

  • Standard condition: Reaching 65,430 (July 8 low / 4H recent low = strong support) and confirming a bullish reversal pattern on a 15m close. Deep pullbacks to 63,410 or 62,350. Since the higher timeframes are in a downtrend, only take longs with clear bullish confirmation at strong support.
  • Consolidation condition: Recover 66,760 on a 1H close.
  • Stop/Invalidation: Both a front-run and the main position break below 65,180. Full exit below 63,080. If 65,430 clearly closes below on a higher timeframe, skip the long (switch to ④).
  • Targets: 66,360 (partial take + position), 66,660.
  • RR: T1 (66,360) = 2.7 / T2 (66,660) = 3.6.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or +300 with at least +100, or use trailing. Be cautious of false breaks in the low-price zone; protect early.

③ Sell on Rallies (Short)

  • Standard condition: 66,360–66,660 (lower bound of the old range = resistance-turned + 15m retrace high) capped to the upside, confirm a stall with a 15m close. Zone 2: 66,760–67,930.
  • Consolidation condition: Break below 65,700 on a 1H close (downtrend continues).
  • Stop/Invalidation: Front-run recovers 66,780; main position recovers 66,660. Strong invalidation at 67,930 (old swing low X recovered = 1H bullish reversal).
  • Targets: 65,430 (partial take + position), 63,410 / 62,350.
  • RR: T1 (65,430) = 3.8 / T2 (63,410) = 11.0.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or +300 with at least +100, or use trailing. This is a momentum-following short, but since it’s a rally in a low-price zone, protect quickly. If the trigger is confirmed at T1, consider waiting.

④ Breakout Following (Short)

  • Trigger: Break below 65,700 (15m recent low) on a 15m close (downtrend continues).
  • Premise: After the breakdown, pullback toward the breakout price vicinity or the slope of the 20MA on short timeframes like 1m/5m as a back-entry, based on breakout price.
  • Consolidation condition: Break below 65,430 on a 1H close (July 8 low breached = 4H new low).
  • Stop/Invalidation: Front-run recovers 66,050; main position recovers 66,360. Full exit at 66,660.
  • Targets: 64,500 (partial take + position), 63,410 / 62,350.
  • RR: T1 (64,500) = 3.4 / T2 (63,410) = 6.5.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or +300 with at least +100, or use trailing. 65,430 is a strong support; if breached, it tends to drop into the 63,410 gap. In the downside zone, beware false breaks and sudden reversals.

Current Actions

  • Most important line 1: 65,700–65,430. If 65,700 is broken on a 15m close, expect continued decline toward 63,410. 65,430 is strong support from the July 8 low and marks a potential reversal point for counter-trend buying/sell-off balance.
  • Most important line 2: 66,360–66,660. If price stalls here, sell rallies; if 66,660 closes above on a 15m close, expect a short-term bullish reversal toward 67,310 → 67,930. Until 67,930 is recovered on a 1H close, the overall trend remains down.

Entry prices, triggers, and stop levels are based on the chart shape at the time of close (conversion prices, swing highs/lows) of each timeframe. If the structure changes over time, unless the higher timeframes show structural changes, adjust entry prices using the lower-timeframe wave conversion prices (e.g., if a short-term timeframe temporarily moves into a rising wave before turning to a downward wave) and adopt the option that aligns more closely with actual conditions.

Note: This report is provided for information purposes and is not investment advice. Please make your own investment decisions.