[11th Episode] I do not trust backtests that show a "steadily rising" performance.
When searching for EA and indicators, there is something that always catches the eye.
A clean, rising profit and loss chart.
The more you look at it, the more reassuring it feels.
“With this logic, it seems likely to win.”
It's natural to feel that way.
However, after validating 22 years of USD/JPY data, I do not judge based on that chart alone.
Rather, I become more cautious precisely because it is rising.
A rising chart is a “result,” not a “reason.”
The backtest equity curve shows how the logic behaved in the past.
But looking at only the result does not reveal why the logic was able to accumulate profits.
Was the expected value really accumulating?
Or was it just a coincidence that it matched a particular market environment?
That difference cannot be read from the chart alone.
That’s why, from the moment I notice a “clean rising trend,” I begin to investigate the reasons behind it.