Even FOMC inflation warnings! Gold price at $4,200 is a turning point
Trump: 'Ceasefire has ended' Gold price stays around $4,100 but selling into rallies may dominate
Gold price remains soft around $4,100
Gold prices (XAU/USD) slipped toward the $4,100 area, with an expected weekly decline of about 0.5%.
Moves were driven by President Trump’s statement that “the ceasefire with Iran has ended.”
However, he signaled willingness to continue discussions with Iran, so the Middle East situation remains opaque.
Dollar and U.S. yields rise on Middle East risk
Following Trump’s remarks, the market grew wary of rising energy prices and a renewed inflation spike.
As a result,
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to **4.569%**
- Dollar Index (DXY)around 100.94held
putting pressure on non-yielding gold.
Inflation concerns in FOMC minutes
The FOMC minutes released this week confirmed that inflation vigilance remains strong within the Fed.
Some participants signaled a willingness to hike further, keeping expectations for tightening through the year alive.
Additionally, U.S. initial jobless claims came in at215,000versus expectations, underscoring the labor market’s resilience.
Markets price in September rate hike
The market assigns roughly an 80% probability that the Fed will raise rates at the September meeting.
Meanwhile, at recent meetings, holding rates steady was seen as more likely, shifting attention to upcoming U.S. CPI data and remarks from Fed officials.
Technicals favor selling into rallies
Gold remains around $4,100, but the overall trend remains down.
In charts, a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows continues, and the 200-day moving average ($4,493) is breached.
Moreover, the RSI has moved into the bearish zone, suggesting selling into rallies is likely.
On the upside,$4,200is the first important resistance band, and breaking this level would target$4,300next.
On the downside,$4,021, then$3,941, and further$3,886are key supports to watch.
Summary
- Trump’s remark that a ceasefire has ended rekindles Middle East risk concerns
- Dollars and U.S. yields rise, with gold falling toward around $4,100
- FOMC minutes reaffirm inflation concerns
- Markets price about an 80% probability of a September rate hike
- Technically, the downtrend persists andselling into rallies dominatesis the expected path
