【Episode 9】Backtesting is not about finding a “how to win.”
“If you’ve backtested for 22 years, you’ll know all the winning patterns, right.”
You may hear that.
But every time, I feel a little uneasy.
Because what I look at in backtesting is somewhat different from what is generally imagined.
I look at losing trades far more than winning trades.
Winning trades don’t teach you anything.
When you see a trade that made a profit, anyone feels good.
“This condition was correct.”
“This logic is usable.”
You would want to think that.
However, from a logic-development standpoint, there are things you can’t understand by looking only at winning trades.
Did it happen to win by luck?
Did it win as expected by the odds?
That difference cannot be judged from a single result.
So I never feel at ease just by looking at winning trades.