MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Jul.13 2026

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei Stock Average closed down 1,187 points from the previous week at 68,557. The week's high was on Monday the 6th at 70,384. The week's low was on Wednesday the 8th at 66,819. The week's low fell below the weekly downside support line but recovered. Since the close price ended higher, this is a bullish trigger. Therefore, the bullish streak may continue. However, the week's closing price fell below the weekly trend indicator point (TIP) for the first time in 14 weeks. Therefore the overall trend has been downgraded to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

As has been stated before, in “Forecast 2026” the long-term market cycle for the Nikkei Stock Average has been revised from 17 years to 19 years. However, the starting point of 2008-10-28 at 6,994 remains unchanged. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottomed (or whether it has not bottomed yet) will be the focus in 2026. That said, there is no change in the view that the current market is composed of a 4-year cycle, and the development of future long-term cycles will, in the near term, be influenced by the movement of the PC (usually 12–20 weeks). There is no change in that point either.

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