★Explosiveness equals danger? What we learned from a one-year investigation★
Powerful Marting Power Operation
Know the Enemy to Minimize Risk
The Martingale’s Biggest Foe is “Losing Streaks”
What matters most in Martingale is not simply the win rate.
The true point to watch is,how many consecutive losses the logic allowsto occur.
Because in Martingale operation, the more losses in a row, the higher the lot sizes, required margin, and floating loss risk become. In other words, checking the number of losses in a row is extremely important for assessing the risk of a Martingale EA.
If you run without knowing this...
Losses distribution verified over about 1 year
```In this backtest, we counted the number of consecutive losses to see how frequently such streaks occurred.
| Consecutive Losses | Occurrences | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 loss | 195 times | 51.46% |
| 2 losses | 98 times | 25.86% |
| 3 losses | 54 times | 14.25% |
| 4 losses | 23 times | 6.07% |
| 5 losses | 5 times | 1.32% |
| 6 losses | 4 times | 1.06% |
| 7 losses | 0 times | 0.00% |
| 8 losses | 1 time | 0.26% |
Consecutive Losses Distribution Graph
```※For readability, the smallest value bars are displayed with a minimum width.
```Key Points
```The occurrence of 5 losses or more totals onlyabout 2.64%
8 losses, in yearly verification,only once
The frequency at which the most cautioned loss scenario in Martingale operation occurred is disclosed without hiding the data.
```Why this data is strong evidence
```In Martingale EAs, looking at win rate alone does not reveal the real risk. Even if the win rate is high, frequent extreme losses place a heavy burden on capital.
That is why this EA checks not only profit results but alsohow often losses occurred.
In about a year of testing, even with a maximum of 8 consecutive losses, the test was completed with the same settings to the end.
This is a crucial verification point for Martingale operation. It wasn’t just profits over a short period; it was tested over roughly a year of market conditions including loss periods.
``````
This loss distribution is based on past backtest results and does not guarantee the same losses will occur in future markets.
However, for evaluating Martingale EAs, disclosing not only profits but also loss risks is an important material for operational decisions.
```Martingale cannot be operated long-term.
Verified with the white tiger in the above results
No curve fitting.
No setting changes.
Completed backtest for about one year with the same settings.
What I want to convey most this time
Martingale EA tends to achieve large profits in the short term, but long-term testing can see significant drawdowns.
Therefore, what matters is not short-term profit but,whether you can continue operation without changing settings as market conditions change.
In this test, about a year was completed without setting changes and with no curve fitting.
What this test did not cover
```No optimization to past markets.
About one year of testing with the same settings.
Parameters were not changed to push profits mid-test.
Verification to confirm EA’s inherent performance.
About 1 year of backtest results
```| Item | Result |
|---|---|
| Testing period | June 2025 to June 2026 |
| Currency pair | XAUUSD |
| Initial capital | $1,000 |
| Final balance | $8,899.97 |
| Net profit | $7,899.97 |
| Capital growth rate | About 890% |
| Total trades | 1,476 |
| Win rate | 52.44% |
| Profit factor | 1.43 |
| Max drawdown | 46.70% |
Meaning of Enduring Martingale for 1 Year
Martingale operation has attractive resilience when recovering from winners and efficient capital use. But for long-term operation, it is essential to endure drawdowns and market biases.
In this test, we completed about a year of backtesting without changing settings.
This is not merely about enjoying profits.
What truly matters in Martingale operation is,whether you can continue operating for a long period with the same settings.
Why the win rate 52.44% still accumulates profit
Looking at the win rate alone at 52.44% may seem unimpressive.
However, the important thing is not the win rate alone.
Profit balance, capital efficiency, and the ability to sustain long-term operation are key design factors.
In this test, we conducted about a year of trading with identical settings, totaling 1,476 trades,growing capital from $1,000 to $8,899.97.
Drawdown
The maximum drawdown was 46.70%. This number is not small.
However, presenting only favorable numbers is meaningless. The real decision should be made by considering both profits and risks.
This test aims to verify the EA’s intrinsic performance, so it does not implement certain capital management practices such as:
- Compounding
- Lot escalation with profits
- Drawdown-based lot reduction
- Capital management based on risk percentage
This is the result of testing under the same conditions for about one year.
In actual trading, you can adjust lot sizes according to capital and risk tolerance to create a personalized trading plan.
Value of this test
It is not merely about profits.
In Martingale operation.
No curve fitting.
No setting changes.
Completed about one year of testing with the same settings.
There is value in having tested and built profits under these conditions to the end.
No optimization. No mid-test changes.
Approximately one year of backtesting Martingale EA with the same settings.
From $1,000 to $8,899.97
Results tested across not only short periods but various market environments.
※Actual results may differ due to market conditions, spreads, order execution, and trading settings.
※EA trading carries risk of loss. Please trade only with funds you can afford to lose.
