The translated HTML (keeping the format, not in code block, and without turning lines into newlines): 7/8 USDJPY, BTC market FX Plus 369
To all readers, good morning ^^
I am Ai, the self-proclaimed number one junior disciple of Dr. 369♪
First, let's look at today's market♪
【BTCUSD】
EMA settings
Red → 20EMA
Yellow → 75EMA
Blue → 200EMA
BTC's short-term upward momentum has somewhat cooled♪
On the H4 chart, it’s trading above the 20EMA, defending the high-range while handling pullbacks. Meanwhile, around the 200EMA, upward movement is being capped and buyers and sellers are evenly matched.
On the daily chart, the 20EMA has recovered and RSI is above 50.
The rebound from the downtrend is progressing, but the 75EMA is still pointing down and located high, so a further rise is needed to confirm a full-blown uptrend.
Currently,it is an important stage for testing the previous highto determine the retrace high, it seems ^^
【USDJPY】
USDJPY is continuing its rebound after a sharp drop ♪
On the H4 chart, it remains above the 20EMA, maintaining a rebound bias. In the short term, highs and lows are getting higher, and buying is dominant.
On the daily chart, both the 20EMA and 75EMA are rising, and the medium-to-long-term uptrend remains intact.
RSI has also recovered to the 60s, indicating some overboughtness, but the trend itself has not broken yet.
However, rather than jumping in now, you should wait for a pullback to target a higher-probability entry ♪
Now, to the main topic ^^
Many people think
“If the win rate is high, you will win.”
But in reality, that alone is not enough.
For example,
- A method with a 90% win rate that loses 10 times the profit in one loss.
- A method with a 40% win rate where profits are three times the losses.
If you trade for a long time, the latter often ends up being more profitable.
In other words, what you should truly look at is,
**“Expected value” rather than “win rate.”**
Chasing only the win rate can lead you to change methods or break rules after a few losses.
However, if you understand expected value,
you can calmly decide, “This is a loss consistent with the test, so it’s not a problem.”
The most important thing in trading is
not the immediate wins and losses, but what happens if you continue it 100 times or 1,000 times.
Just adopting this mindset will significantly change your trading ^^
Details here ↓