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カタナ
07/07/2026 17:30
Release： 07/07/2026 17:30
Update： 07/07/2026 17:30
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory - 4-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-07-08 (for Tokyo/Asia session)

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: July 8, 2026 06:06 JST / Night Session

Current Value: 67,570 JPY

Subject: For intraday sessions (7/8)

Conclusion

The night session declined from its recovery high of 70,520, breaking below 67,630 (rebound initiation point = July 3 low) to 67,570 at close. The 4H chart shows a downward and declining wave with a total break of the 120EMA (daily equivalent of the 20EMA) and 200EMA; the 1H and 15m charts also show downward waves, aligning all timeframes lower. For the day session, focus on selling rallies, with rallies stalling at 67,810–68,220 (shallow rally) and 68,620 (deep rally).

If rallies stall at 67,810–68,220 and 68,620 and price breaks 67,420 on the 15m close, the decline continues (toward 67,000 and 66,500). A recovery above 68,340 (1H turning point) would constitute the first sign of a rising correction within the 1H downtrend, enabling a breakout-following long. Since all timeframes are in a downtrend, pullback buying and breakout-following longs are treated as counter-trend strategies and should be limited to strong supports such as 67,000 (psychological level) and not chased aggressively.

4H Analysis

The 4H chart shows a downtrend and declining wave. Turning point at 70,460, no clear pullback lows formed, pullback high at 72,110. In the downtrend, the pullback high declined from 73,760 to 72,720 to 72,110; the 70,520 pullback stallled and reversed to 67,570 after breaking 67,630 (July 3 low) to 67,570. Prices have decisively breached the 4H 120EMA (around 69,200) and the 200EMA (around 68,200), breaking major moving averages across the board.

With the lower highs in pullbacks and the break of the daily 20EMA equivalent, downward momentum remains dominant. Upside levels: 68,340, 69,640, 70,460, 72,110; until 70,460 closes above, the upside remains within a pullback range. Downside targets: 67,000 (psychological), 66,500, 66,110; breaking these could accelerate to 65,000 and 64,520.

1H Analysis

The 1H chart shows a downward and declining wave. Turning at 68,340, pullback highs at 70,490; price fell from 70,490 to 67,570. The 20EMA and 80EMA are downward and price remains below them.

Rallies around 67,810–68,220 stall; 68,620 is a deeper stall. Breaking 67,420 suggests continued decline toward 67,000 and 66,500. Recovery above 68,340 on a 1H close would be the first sign of a potential uptrend in the 1H downwave.

15m Analysis

The 15m chart shows a down and declining wave. Turning at 67,810, pullback lows not formed (recent low 67,420), pullback high at 68,620. Range-bound downside move: 68,220 → 67,420 → 67,570. The 20EMA and 80EMA (matching 1H 20EMA) trend downward and lie below the 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 68,300).

If 67,810 closes above on the 15m chart, short-term downtrend might pause; breaking 67,420 supports continued decline. In a downwave with lower highs, rallies between 67,810–68,220 are considered selling opportunities; avoid early long entries as the 20EMA is down.

Review of Previous Trade Ideas

Target: Night Session

  • ① Breakout-following (Long)Not formed. Approached 70,520 but could not break higher (stalled near 70,490 on July 7 high) and subsequently declined.
  • ② Buying on dips (Long)Not formed → fully exited. Dip zones (70,100–69,910 / 69,640–68,970) were successive breaks lower, with 68,970 broken and price falling to 67,570; dip buy did not work (④ downside break is the main flow).
  • ③ Selling rallies (Short)Formed / position established. Price stabilized within the zone (69,910) / (68,970) T1 and T2; rally zones 70,490–70,520 stalled, price closed below 70,100 on the 1H, reached 69,910→68,970 and continued lower.
  • ④ Breakout-following (Short)Formed / position established. Trigger below 68,970 / 68,480–67,630; price broke 69,910 and moved lower to 67,630, confirming that the downside breakout was the main flow.

MTF State

  • 4HDownward / declining wave. Turning at 70,460; no pullback low formed; pullback high 72,110. The 70,520 pullback stalled and reversed to 67,570 after breaking 67,630. The 4H 120EMA and 200EMA were broken in total; moving averages all trending downward.
  • 1HDownward / declining wave. Turning at 68,340; pullback highs at 70,490; price fell to 67,570. All MAs trending downward.
  • 15mDownward / declining wave. Turning at 67,810; pullback low not formed (latest low 67,420); pullback high 68,620. Range-bound downside between 67,420–68,220. 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) is below.
  • AlignmentAll four-hour, 1H, and 15m are in decline with aligned downward momentum. Upper timeframes take precedence; the primary axis is sell rallies. Until a close above 70,460 (4H turning point) is achieved, the downtrend remains intact. Pullback buying is limited to strong supports such as 67,000 (psychological level); avoid overtrading in both directions while all TFs are down.

Important Prices

  • 72,110 JPY: 4H pullback high (July 1 high). Upper bound of 4H down move.
  • 70,520 JPY: Most recent pullback high (July 6–7). Point of reversal.
  • 70,490 JPY: 1H pullback high.
  • 69,640 JPY: Former pullback low (resistance level). T2.
  • 68,970 JPY: Former pullback low (support level). T1.
  • 68,620 JPY: 15m pullback high. Trigger for breakout-following long and Second pullback zone.
  • 68,340 JPY: 1H turning price. T1 formed (1H rising correction).
  • 68,220 JPY: Most recent pullback band (15m). Upper bound of pullback zone 1.
  • 67,810 JPY: 15m turning price. Lower bound of pullback zone 1.
  • 67,570 JPY: Current price / night close value.
  • 67,420 JPY: 15m recent low. Trigger for T1.
  • 67,000 JPY: Psychological level / downside target. Zone 1 of 2; T1 of 3/4.
  • 66,500 JPY: Bottom level. Upper bound of Zone 2 for 3/4 and T2 of 2.
  • 66,110 JPY: Lower-level support. Zone 2 lower bound; final target of 4th scenario.
  • 65,000 JPY: Downside target.
  • 64,520 JPY: 4H level (former turning point).
  • 62,350 JPY: 4H / daily chart structural low. Main downside support.

Trade Ideas

① Breakout-following (Long)

  • Trigger: Break above 68,620 (15m pullback high) on a 15m close (short-term downtrend cools and pullback begins).
  • Ahead: After breakout, pull back toward the breakout price vicinity or around the inclined 20MA on 1m/5m timeframes to gauge a wave-change timing (back-entry, breakout price basis).
  • Positioning: Price recovers 68,340 (1H turning point) on a 1H close (1H downwave turning up).
  • Loss cut / invalidation: prior leg falls below 68,170; position cut below 67,420.
  • Targets: 68,970 (partial take + cost basis), 69,640.
  • RR: T1 68,970 = 0.8 / T2 69,640 = 2.3. Because T1 is less than 1, raise trigger criteria and focus on the main long.
  • Note: All timeframes show downtrends; this is a counter-trend for sell rally; until 68,340 is recovered, rallies are within the pullback range; 68,970 and 69,640 act as staged resistance.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or break-even or slight profit; at +300 secure at least +100 or use trailing. As this is a counter-trend in a downtrend, protect early.

② Buy on dips (Long)

  • Standard conditions: shallow pullback zone 1 67,420–67,000 (recent lows–psychological level) or deeper pullback zone 2 66,500–66,110; confirm rebound shape with 15m close.
  • Ahead: shallow pullback target 67,100 (LC 66,730); deep pullback target 66,200 (LC 65,900). All timeframes down; counter-trend = 67,000 (psych level) and 66,110 strong supports; confirm clear rebound near 20MA on rising/flat price.
  • Positioning: 68,340 recovers on a 1H close.
  • Loss cut / invalidation: prior leg breaks 66,730 (deep pullback), position breaks 66,110.
  • Targets: 67,810 (partial take + cost), 68,620.
  • RR: T1 67,810 = 1.9 / T2 68,620 = 4.1.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or break-even or minimum +100 with trailing. Do not chase; protect early in a downtrend.

③ Sell on rallies (Short)

  • Standard conditions: rallies stall in Zone 1 67,810–68,220 (near turning point) or Zone 2 up to 68,620; confirm stall with 15m close. In deep rally, treat 68,620 as zone 2 for pullback high.
  • Ahead: stall confirmed by 15m close (target 67,860 as a guideline). With all timeframes trending down, follow with the trend and sell rallies.
  • Positioning: Break below 67,420 on a 1H close (further decline).
  • Loss cut / invalidation: price recovers to 68,320 for ahead leg, and 68,620 for main leg. Strong invalidation at 68,340 (1H turning point recovery) leads back to scenario ①.
  • Targets: 67,000 (partial take + cost basis), 66,500 / 66,110.
  • RR: T1 67,000 = 1.9 / T2 66,500 = 3.0.
  • Note: Below 67,000 psychological support is thinner; avoid deep chasing. Do not enter early below 20MA; if trigger is confirmed and T1 has been reached, skip further entries.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or break-even, or +300 secure at least +100 with trailing.

④ Breakout-following (Short)

  • Trigger: Break below 67,420 (15m recent low) on a 15m close (ongoing down move).
  • Ahead: After break, pull back toward breakout price vicinity or toward inclined 20MA on short timeframes like 1m/5m to time wave-change (back-entry, breakout price basis).
  • Positioning: Break below 67,000 (psychological level) on a 1H close (further decline).
  • Loss cut / invalidation: prior leg recovers to 67,750; main leg recovers to 68,220. Fully exit at 68,620.
  • Targets: 67,000 (partial take + cost basis), 66,500 / 66,110.
  • RR: T1 67,000 = 1.3 / T2 66,500 = 2.8.
  • Notes: Psychological level 67,000, 66,500 and 66,110 provide tiered support; beware of sharp reversals and traps near lows; enter only after a clear close below targets. If 66,110 is broken, price could fall to 65,000 and 64,520.
  • MFE protection: exit at +200 or break-even, or +300 secure at least +100 with trailing.

Current Actions

  • Most important line 1: 67,810–68,220 JPY (15m turning point vicinity to recent pullback band). If stalls here, sell rallies (all-timeframes down in alignment). Deep pullback stalls at 68,620.
  • Most important line 2: 67,420 JPY (15m recent low / down move pivot) and 67,000 JPY (psychological level). If 67,420 breaks on a 15m close, further decline toward 67,000 and 66,500. If rebound occurs near 67,000 or 66,110 strong supports, consider a dip buy (counter-trend). Recovery above 68,340 (1H turning point) opens up breakout-following long.
  • Market context: All four timeframes (4H, 1H, 15m) are in a downtrend; all align downward. The 4H timeframe shows the daily 20EMA equivalent (120EMA) and the 200EMA broken with downward momentum dominating. Sell rallies as the primary axis; until a close above 70,460 (4H turning point) is achieved, downside remains intact. Dip buying limited to strong supports like 67,000; avoid overtrading in both directions while all TFs are down.

Entry price, trigger, and stop are set based on the closing shape of the chart at the time of close (turning prices, pullback lows, and pullback highs of each timeframe). If the structure changes over time but there is no change in the higher timeframe structure, adjust entry prices based on the lower timeframe wave-change prices (e.g., when a short-term timeframe first enters a down wave and then reverses to an up move) and adopt the option that more accurately reflects actual conditions.

Note: This report is for information purposes and is not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.