Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [July 7]

Today's crypto asset market movements (2026 year 7 month 7 day)

Today, the cryptocurrency market broadly shows firm movement, and investor sentiment is turning risk-on (aggressive investing posture).

Bitcoin (BTC) traded in a range around63,000 USD64,000 USD

Bitcoin's current market capitalization is about

Bitcoin daily chart

Ethereum (ETH) traded around1,770 USD

Other major cap altcoins (Solana (

Ethereum daily chart

Today's main upside drivers (related news)

The market’s strongest mover today is the weak US employment data. The non-farm payrolls growth for June came in well below expectations, at about 57,000 versus an expected 110,000.This has nudged the unemployment rate slightly higher.

This prompted market expectations that the Fed may delay further rate hikes and that rate cuts could come sooner this year, fueling a broad risk-on rally across equities, crypto, and gold.

Following the release, Bitcoin recovered the 64,000 USD level briefly, and Ethereum moved toward the 1,800 USD level.

Additionally, MicroStrategy, known for holding large Bitcoin reserves, was found to have sold about3,588 BTC last week, which was seen as a temporary negative factor.

However, the macro factor of loosening monetary policy prompted by weak US payroll data outweighed the selling pressure, yielding a net positive market impact.

Overall, the market is supported by the typical risk-on logic: weak employment data increases expectations for monetary easing (rate cuts), which in turn attracts funds into crypto assets.

Market rotation recovery mode and technical analysis

The crypto market shows signs of entering a “rotation recovery” mode, where funds cycle through different sectors as the market recovers.

Bitcoin (BTC) near 63,000 USD has catalyzed a rebound in off-hours trading in semiconductor and crypto-related equities, and this favorable sentiment has spread to Hong Kong’s tech stock market as well, with a solid, supportive warmth evident.

Going forward, key technical attention centers on whether the price can hold the long-term support around the 200-week moving average (about 62,600 USD).

Additionally, market sentiment gauges such as Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index are currently at “27,” indicating Fear territory. As Bitcoin trades around 63,033 USD, investor psychology remains cautious but seeking buying opportunities.

Looking at historical anomalies, July is a month Bitcoin tends to rise, with historical win rate of 11-5. The following plain-text points outline specific focus and warnings for this month.

This Month’s Focus Points

(1) Progress of the Clarify Act (cryptocurrency regulation bill)

(2) US rate hike/cut expectations and the resulting unusual yen weakness

(3) Whether MicroStrategy will continue selling BTC

(4) Whether cash outflows from crypto spot ETFs will stop

(5) Impact of the expiry of Europe’s MiCA regulatory relief period

(6) Momentum from major Web3 events in Japan (WebX, Japan Blockchain Week)

Last week’s price action and V字 recovery

Looking back at last week, early in the week around July 1 there was continued consolidation with many currencies in the recent low ranges. However, the market strongly rebounded toward the end of the week following the aforementioned US payroll data.

Bitcoin (BTC) movement

July 1: around 58,000 USD to 60,000 USD range, indicating a strong pullback.

Current: around 63,100 USD. Weekly gain: roughly +5% to +8%. This marks a high weekly performance not seen since March this year.

Ethereum (ETH) movement

July 1: around 1,570 USD to 1,610 USD was seen selling pressure.

Overall market summary: after late June to early July, there was a pullback due to profit-taking and macro concerns, briefly hitting lows. However, the weak US payroll data in July revived buying, resulting in a near-V-shaped recovery in BTC and ETH.

Currently, resistance remains around 64,000 USD for Bitcoin and around 2,000 USD for Ethereum, but short-term bottoming seems strongly in effect.

Specific daily flows using third-party data (Farside Investors and Coinglass) are as follows:

(1) June 26: net outflow exceeding 400 million USD.

(2) July 1: net outflow of 200–300 million USD.

(3) July 2 and July 6: some days saw net inflows exceeding 200 million USD.

Bitcoin related news

(1) SEC Chair intensively pushing for market-on-chain integration

(2) MicroStrategy sold 3,588 BTC in the past week

(3) Fidelity's Timmer analyzes key BTC support line

(4) Metaplannet acquires 2,823 BTC

(5) Retail BTC inflows to Binance hit record low

(6) Trump family-backed American Bitcoin adds 500 BTC

(7) Trump administration’s strategic BTC reserve faces legal hurdles

(8) Bernstein maintains year-end BTC target of 150,000 USD

(9) Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index hits 50-day low

(10) Trump Account launches for minors

(11) Binance CEO CZ says “Crypto cannot be erased”

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